The Taliban preyed on Erdogan's cards Israel today

With the exception of Afghanistan itself, the one most likely to suffer from the crisis in the most diverse country is Turkey.

Unlike most of the countries involved, Erdogan's entanglement is first and foremost at home - in Turkey itself.

Today, the country is home to about 5 million refugees, about half a million of whom are immigrants from Afghanistan.

At the same time, a member of parliament from the Republican People's Party (CHP) has already claimed that following the crisis in Afghanistan - the number will rise to 6.5 million people.

This is because the wave of refugees from Afghanistan has recently skyrocketed to extraordinary numbers, through the Turkish-Iranian border.

Afghanistan: Army-Taliban fighting in the north of the country / Photo: Reuters

"Iran is a factor that undermines Turkey's stability," Turkish independent commentator Oğul Tuna told Israel Today.

"Tehran allows the passage of Afghan immigrants and refugees along its territory - to Turkey. Most of these refugees will remain in Turkey for the long term as well."

Proof of Tuna's statements can be taken from the Syrian civil war.

No less than 4 million Syrian refugees currently live in Turkey.

A survey by the Metropoll Research Institute illustrated the state of Turkish public opinion regarding the refugee crisis.

According to the results of the survey, 66.5% of the population of Turkey think that the country's borders should be closed again against the wave of refugees.

On the contrary, 60.1% of Erdogan's supporters, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), support the closure of borders.

While this is a necessary step according to common sense, it is quite the opposite of Erdogan's platform that has focused for decades on the rhetoric of the "oppressed peoples" that he claims to be their savior.

So he also aspired to be in Afghanistan.

He has had a wonderful relationship with President Ashraf Ghani and has already concluded a deal with NATO that his country would inherit the security mission of Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, which was supposed to ensure his country a permanent military presence - similar to what is happening in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Taliban members in the office of ousted President Ashraf Ghani, E.P.

However, the Taliban preyed on him.

"Like other powers, Turkey did not expect the Taliban's rapid takeover of Afghanistan," Tuna explains.

"Ankara has already prepared Turkish public opinion for the security mission of Kabul airport after the Allied withdrawal from Afghanistan. It will probably no longer be implemented."

The reason it will not be implemented is that the Taliban is not willing to accept any foreign military force in the country, and it is not interesting to them whether it is a Muslim country or not.

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid even stressed yesterday (Tuesday) that Turkey would not be able to leave military forces in the country.

The same message was echoed by the Afghan terrorist organization in another statement today.

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid, AFP

Then came Ankara's confession in reality.

"Turkish armed forces are returning to their homeland with pride, having successfully completed their mission," the Turkish Defense Ministry said tonight.

"The evacuation of Turkish forces from Afghanistan began after the assessment of the current situation and conditions," they said.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan added tonight that "we receive the messages from the Taliban with cautious optimism. The actions of the Taliban and not their words will determine the future of Afghanistan. It is imperative that Afghanistan reaches stability. Turkey, in line with our goal, remains in touch with all parties."

At the same time, the Taliban have provided a kind of "consolation gift": they are interested in assisting Ankara in operating the airport.

This decision was made after conciliatory messages arrived from Turkey.

Although the Taliban are defined in Turkey as a terrorist organization, Erdogan has already said that "I may host the Taliban leader for talks."

Beyond that, in Ankara we have pardoned the same people they define themselves as a terrorist organization.

"We are in talks with all the parties in Afghanistan," said Foreign Minister Mevlot Chebushalou. "We welcome the positive messages from the Taliban."

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevloth Chebushalou, E.P.

Tuna has an explanation for this. "As a power, Turkey is ready to enter into a dialogue with the Taliban, which is defined as a terrorist organization. It may even have already begun," he said. "President Erdogan has said many times that 'the religious beliefs of the Turkish people are similar to those of the Taliban.' However, many Turks oppose the reconciliation trend with the organization." Erdogan's insistence on getting closer to the Taliban nevertheless returns to his electoral needs, because if he does not advance the election, he will return to the polls in June 2023.

Turkish construction industry officials, who are close to the president, have a strong desire to integrate into Afghanistan's infrastructure and building improvement programs.

Therefore, the messages of another Taliban spokesman Suhail Shahin in an interview with A HABER network, which is close to the Turkish government, were that his country does indeed offer many options to these contractors and they will be welcomed.

By the way, in parallel with the opposition to the military forces, the Mujahideb spokesman responded to Shahin's remarks yesterday.

"These actions will advance the Turkish economy," explains Independent Turkey's commentator.

Taliban fighters in Kandahar, IPI

At the diplomatic level, it is highly doubtful that Turkey will decide to close the embassy in Kabul, and it is not inconceivable that the Afghan embassy in Ankara will soon be headed by a Taliban man.

The issue of bilateral relations between Ankara and Kabul is also heavily influenced by a country whose investments in Turkey and the Taliban make it dependent on Qatar.

Doha was the city hosted for many years by members of the Taliban's political bureau, just as Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh and senior members of the Muslim Brotherhood live there.

An Afghan associate of Erdogan's from the 1990s

Even when Erdogan's Afghan ally, the founder and leader of the Hezb al-Islam (Islamic Party) party, Golbadin Hakmatiar, who has close ties with the Taliban, suggested that Istanbul host talks between the Afghan government and the terrorist organization - the proposal was dropped. why.

Given how Doha operates the channel that has long become its international propaganda arm, Al-Jazeera, in an attempt to portray the Taliban as a "blue-eyed tallit," only time will tell how much the a-Thani family helped the Taliban overthrow the Afghan government.

In conclusion, it is clear that these days senior Turkish minds are sitting in Erdogan's office and in the Foreign Ministry headquarters in Ankara trying to examine how to deal with the current situation, which could hurt the Turkish president at home and abroad - also in the international arena.