Elections 2021: the poll fever crossed the ban and the ballot box war of the PASO has already begun

Eduardo Paladini

09/12/2021 2:52 PM

• Clarín.com

• Politics

Updated 09/12/2021 2:52 PM

Federico Aurelio

is today one of the most inserted consultants in the world of politics. He inherited from his father a historical link with Peronism throughout the country, and some time ago he became one of the favorite pollsters of the Buenos Aires Horacio Rodríguez Larreta. Since Friday he has received dozens of calls to find out his latest forecasts. He said no to everyone, except, of course, to his clients. However, that zeal that he decided for these STEP 2021 was not followed by many of his colleagues, who

kept the poll fever high over the weekend

. And this same Sunday, with the voting already open, another statistical battle was unleashed: the

war of the exit points

.

As

Clarín

was recounting

, on Saturday, September 4, and by order of the Electoral Justice, the "prohibition of publishing and disseminating pre-election polls and polls began."

That ban is in force until 21 on this Sunday

.

Prior to these limits, this newspaper had made a last cut of polls, mainly in the two Buenos Aires and at the national level.

Until then,

both in the country and in the Province, the forecasts were open and uncertain

.

Victoria Tolosa Paz, candidate of the Frente de Todos, when she voted this Sunday in City Bell.

Photo Martín Bonetto.

In Buenos Aires territory, out of 12 polls, a third gave up to the Frente de Todos, another third to Juntos por el Cambio and the remaining third a technical tie

(gap of two points or less).

In no case did anyone foresee a scenario similar to that of 2019, when the Fernándezes took 16.3 points from Macri - Pichetto or Axel Kicillof's 12.7 points on María Eugenia Vidal.

And in the analysis of those numbers, there was another "curiosity": when averages were made of that dozen of works,

the list of Victoria Tolosa Paz appeared in even numbers with the sum of the two of Juntos por el Cambio (Diego Santilli + Facundo Manes)

.

At the country level, meanwhile, there were also figures for everyone

(or at least several) tastes: out of 7 jobs, 3 put the Frente de Todos at the top and 4 put Together for Change.

But of the latter, when they were undecided, one turned their prognosis and leaned towards the ruling party.

Believe, bust or better wait for the results.

Post-closure surveys

That cut that this newspaper made a week ago was not the last.

Clarín was

able to see

five new Buenos Aires polls

between Friday and Sunday

.

Three were updates from consulting firms that had already measured days ago:

Trespuntozero, Federico González and Proyección

.

The first is the

Argentine firm that best predicted the first presidential round

of 2019. When the majority anticipated that the advantage of 16 points that the Frente de Todos had taken in the PASO would expand, the firm led by Shila Vilker reduced its forecast to 11 It ended in 8.

Federico González

, meanwhile, is an analyst who measured for Sergio Massa in previous elections and was always closer to Peronism.

And

Proyección

is a small consulting firm, whose jobs usually circulate in the world K. Their latest polls reflect the caution of these firms after the 2019 blunder:

each district comes with two different projections of undecided

.

Diego Santilli greets a man disguised as a capybara after voting at the Colegio San Pedro Talar Pacheco accompanied by his wife Analía Maiorana.

Photo Fernando de la Orden.

In any case, in the three consulting firms and always speaking of Province, they made relatively small adjustments with respect to what they had predicted before the closure.

But in parallel,

two new Buenos Aires

post-closure

surveys were added

.

On the one hand,

the UBA Psychology Observatory (OPSA)

disseminated its work

, which usually publishes monthly public opinion monitoring and electoral forecasts.

And on the other hand, it left its numbers at

Atlas Intel

, a firm with origin in Brazil, which measures in other Latin American countries and the United States, and which was the one that best predicted that general election of 2019, with a gap of 10 points (against the 11 of

Trespuntozero

). As he had also predicted something similar for the PASO, in the balance of that entire process, the Brazilian consulting firm was at the top. A symptom of the moment of his Argentine colleagues. 

Almost the same firms mentioned also circulated their latest surveys for the City of Buenos Aires.

There, before the closure, and as explained by Clarín based on nine consultants, a clear advantage of Juntos por el Cambio over the Frente de Todos was foreseen.

With two unknowns: how Ricardo López Murphy would fare in the yellow intern (and therefore María Eugenia Vidal) and the economist Javier Milei.

The

uncertainty did not seem to dissipate with the latest polls

, which maintained very different numbers for both López Murphy and Milei. 

Lastly,

CB Consultora Opinion Pública

 made adjustments to its forecasts for Santa Fe, Chubut and Tucumán.

There are three of the provinces that renew senators.

The exit war

Already this Sunday, while TV and news portals were showing the long queues outside schools to vote,

the classic exit points began to circulate

.

Mostly from the province of Buenos Aires, but also several from Córdoba and some from the City.

In these cases, their authorship is attributed to the parties themselves, basically the Frente de Todos and Juntos por el Cambio,

the only ones with the economic capacity to solve them

(almost the same as the previous polls).

Until shortly after 2

p.m., three exit boxes supposedly commissioned by the ruling party had circulated

.

Two attributed to important ministers of the national Cabinet and a third to a high-profile deputy.

At the same time,

one

circulated

whose authorship was admitted to this newspaper by one of the key opposition candidates

.

President Alberto Fernández, this Sunday, when he cast his vote.

And the striking thing is that unlike what happened with the polls, the four polls agreed to grant it a similar advantage, always in favor of the same political force.

In addition, this newspaper saw data from an alleged exit point in the City of Buenos Aires and four attributed to consulting firms in the province of Córdoba.

In the latter case, as in the Buenos Aires province,

the votes for the sum of Together for Change, We do for Córdoba (the force of Governor Juan Schiaretti) and the Frente de Todos

would be having until noon

.

In this province it has been measured especially for senators

, since it is one of the 8 that renews its national representatives for the upper house.