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CDU chief Armin Laschet
Photo: TOBIAS SCHWARZ / AFP
From one minute to the next everything seemed different: The expected announcement by Armin Laschet that he wanted to clear the way for a new line-up of the CDU also dissolved the few certainties that seemed to apply after the general election. For example, the fact that a Jamaica alliance no longer has a realistic chance and that the CSU chairman Markus Söder will definitely not become chancellor in this legislative period. Wait. Probably both were still not - but also no longer excluded.
And then the bang: no, it doesn't work. At least not yet. Laschet wants to "reconcile opposites" and is ready for important tasks. In other words: he is playing for time. No matter how many people in the party headquarters of the CDU and CSU can roll their eyes - the man stands for perseverance, no matter what the cost.
The Union parties do not have much time to put their affairs in order if they want to continue playing. And that is what they definitely want, at least that is what party opponents agree on. But who would still like to let them play now? It is quite possible that at some point the FDP will no longer feel like having a traffic light, but then maybe it will overwhelm its paper. It is also possible that the Greens hope to be able to get more out of themselves after a change of power in the Union. Or even that, in view of the new situation, the SPD will at some point have problems with the smaller ones and with a sigh is considering a grand coalition. All of this would have been conceivable if there had been a quick change at the top of the CDU. Well not anymore.
Up to the bang of Armin Laschet, the media jazzed up the talks between the SPD, Greens and FDP about a possible traffic light coalition to a minor sensation, although these soundings were to be expected given the overall situation and their chances of success are still very doubtful . But beauty is always in the eye of the beholder. In editorials it was claimed that the traffic light negotiating partners had precisely coordinated their positions on the start of serious explorations, and that everything was perfectly staged.
It looked different to me.
I had the feeling that the Greens were dragging a reluctant FDP through the ring by the nose ring.
Not a nice gesture.
I classified them as revenge for the fact that the FDP named "red lines" for negotiations a few days ago, specifically: no tax increases and no easing of the debt brake.
That wasn't a nice gesture either, and it may not be a particularly smart way to start negotiations that you want to be successful.
If you want him then.
In the meantime, Robert Habeck, for his part, has described climate protection as the Greens' red line, which is just as unsurprising as the fact that the FDP does not want to accept any tax increases.
And it shouldn't have been mentioned now either.
So in my eyes overall: Nothing new under the sun.
The irritability increases
The initial joy at the election success is gone, the irritation increases, and it is tried out whether and to what point one can act as mistress in the house towards the unloved negotiating partner. I was astonished that the news of the upcoming traffic light probes on Wednesday had led to detailed speculations about an allegedly increased chances of success. Actually nothing had changed compared to the first days after the election - except that the desolate state of the Union and its quarreling could not even be denied by the happiest members.
Objectively, the condition is no better than before, even after Laschet's announcement.
The previously covert rivalries will break out openly, no matter how urgently Laschet can call for reconciliation.
Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, Jens Spahn, Ralph Brinkhaus: none of them are strong enough to be considered the natural successor to Laschet, none are weak enough to have to leave the field peacefully.
The situation of the Union is perhaps even more difficult after the statements by Laschet than before.
A personnel reorganization is often a major attraction - there is a magic inherent in every beginning.
This does not apply to an excruciatingly long transition process.
The CDU chairman spares his party nothing.
Psychology always plays a major role in coalition talks, as the last few days have shown.
The Union might now have had a chance to stand for what the protagonists of the traffic light would like to stand for: for the much-invoked awakening.
Armin Laschet gambled away this chance for his party.
The prospects for a traffic light coalition have suddenly actually increased.
