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CDU chief Armin Laschet
Photo: Michael Kappeler / dpa
The debacle in the federal election, the dwindling chances of getting into the government, the pressure from within: in the end it is probably just too much.
Even for someone like Armin Laschet, who in the past always stopped when others had long since left.
It is shortly after half past six this Thursday when the CDU chief steps up to the lectern in Berlin's Konrad-Adenauer-Haus to make it clear what many have been expecting of him for a long time.
For Armin Laschet, 60, Prime Minister, party chairman, candidate for Chancellor, politics is now coming to an end.
According to Laschet, the CDU must "make a fresh start with new personalities, whether in the government or in the opposition."
This personnel realignment - "from the chairman through the presidium to the federal executive board" - will now be tackled quickly.
Withdrawal in installments
It is not that Laschet simply creates facts, that he pulls through, is looking for a hard break.
That wouldn't suit him either.
What Laschet announced that evening in the CDU headquarters, a bit claused, wrapped in an approximately eleven-minute explanation, is more of a withdrawal in installments.
Laschet doesn't just want to throw it away, he wants to "moderate" the search for a successor, as he says.
A "consensus" of all those who "come into consideration" for the CDU chairmanship is his goal.
Above all, however, Laschet wants to continue to be the Union's “contact person” for the FDP and the Greens, should they return to the negotiating table.
It is an idiosyncratic moment in his statement, the day after the liberals and eco-party had only just turned away from the conservatives.
Laschet has a reputation for ignoring problems and sitting out crises.
Only recently he had to indirectly listen to the accusation from the ranks of the sister party CSU that he was practicing denial of reality with his coalition communication.
But even now, in what is perhaps the bitterest hour of his career, he maintains his belief in a Union-run chancellery.
Only minutes after the FDP and the Greens announced deeper traffic light explorations with the SPD, Laschet is campaigning more aggressively than ever for the increasingly improbable alternative: a Jamaica alliance.
Laschet says that they had good and constructive discussions.
The CDU is still ready for this coalition.
And: Laschet stages his retreat as a kind of sacrifice for the cause: "The great Jamaica project will not fail because of the person," he says.
This narrative is intended, perhaps, to stir hope for the Conservatives.
But it cannot cover up what Laschet's announced departure actually is: an epoch-making failure, the result of huge misjudgments - and personal mistakes.
Laschet's errors
Since his election in January, Laschet has never been able to prove why he is the right party leader.
He underestimated pretty much everything that could be underestimated: the media pressure, the centrifugal forces in his party, the popularity of his big opponent - CSU boss Markus Söder.
Hardly in office, Laschet slipped the procedure for the freestyle of the chancellor candidate.
Only with the combined forces of the CDU board could he bring Söder down, against the will of significant parts of the CDU, against any poll and against any prognosis as to the risks his candidacy would mean for the party.
Laschet believed he could sail to the Chancellery in peace.
Without an election campaign, without a real story of what he wants or where he intends to lead the country with the Union.
The election program became a hodgepodge of loose ideas.
The currents of the Union were reflected in it, but what Laschet really stood for was never clear.
Laschet had no strategy when suddenly the Greens were no longer the main opponent in the election campaign, but the SPD.
And when he realized that the matter with the Chancellery could get complicated, his offensive was limited to warning of a left alliance.
The mistakes that Laschet made in the flood disaster and the pandemic fight contributed to the negative public image.
But more decisive for his failure was that he and his supporters got caught up in a huge misconception: that the Germans will of course vote for the Union in the end anyway - regardless of who is at the front.
Despite everything: Laschet now wants to regulate things further and actively pave the way for the election of a new CDU chief.
He wants to speak to the regional associations, he is planning a conference of district chairmen.
It's a similar approach that his predecessor took when it came to her successor.
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer is known to have slipped away from this process.
And in Laschet's case, almost everything speaks against an orderly transition.
Even in government, the Union could hardly control the unrest in the party.
Why should that work now of all times?
After this election defeat?
At a time when the Union is fighting for its existence?
Three men with ambitions
In the background, the aspirants have long sensed their chance.
Three men in particular are said to have ambitions: Jens Spahn, Friedrich Merz and Norbert Röttgen.
It is hard to imagine that this trio will come to an agreement, as Laschet apparently has in mind.
If only because none of the three have much to say to each other.
And: They have completely different ideas about which path the Christian Democrats should go in the future.
In any case, the party does not only have to clarify one personnel issue.
The election campaign revealed how gutted the CDU is.
He showed that the party needs to develop a new idea of what it is, where it is, what it wants.
Spahn and especially Merz would probably want to set up the party in a classic, more conservative way.
They would emphasize internal security, economic policy, and possibly take a tougher course in migration policy.
Röttgen, on the other hand, dreams of giving the CDU a more progressive face, making it more compatible with the Greens.
Who follows Laschet, should also depend on the procedure that the party now chooses.
Laschet himself seems to be betting on having his successor elected as always - by a party congress.
At the beginning of 2022, in January or February, the time has come, according to the CDU.
It would be a risky path because it is highly questionable whether the traditional way of selecting top staff in the CDU will still be accepted by the members.
The fact that many state associations have long been pushing for grassroots involvement, possibly even formally questioning them, shows one thing above all: The fight for Laschet's legacy is likely to be tough.
So much remains open, also on this Thursday evening in the Konrad-Adenauer-Haus.
Laschet does not allow inquiries from journalists.
When he's finished with his statement, he leaves the stage and quietly disappears behind a door.
