Ukraine crisis: regime change, world war, fall of Putin - these are the scenarios in the Ukraine war

Created: 02/25/2022, 12:44 p.m

By: Sven Hauberg

Russian soldiers in the city of Armyansk in northern Crimea: It is uncertain how far Putin will go in Ukraine.

© Konstantin Mihalchevskiy/Sputnik/dpa

Will the Ukraine conflict escalate into a world war - or will Putin be overthrown by his own people?

The expert assessments of the development in the Ukraine war.

KIEV - Day two of Russia's war against Ukraine: Kremlin troops continue to invade the neighboring country from three sides - north, east and south.

Contrary to the announcements made by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the army is apparently not only targeting military facilities.

For example, attacks on residential buildings were also reported from the Ukrainian capital of Kiev.

It is still unclear exactly what strategy Putin is pursuing in the Ukraine conflict.

Does he want to incorporate Ukraine into the Russian Empire or just overthrow the government in Kiev and replace it with a regime loyal to Moscow?

And could the conflict escalate into a world war in the worst case?

Various scenarios are circulating among experts as to how the Ukraine conflict could develop.

Ukraine conflict: Putin wants to overthrow the regime in Kiev

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sees himself in the Ukraine war as one of Putin's main goals.

"According to our information, the enemy has declared me target number 1, my family target number 2," he said on Friday night.

The US government shares this assessment.

In his declaration of war, which Putin read at 5:30 a.m. Russian time on Thursday morning, the Russian president repeatedly attacked the government in Kiev, calling them "Nazis" and an "anti-people junta that is robbing Ukraine and precisely this people." bullied".

According to Putin, Russia will "denazify" Ukraine - in the President's logic, this means that the military action is intended to overthrow the democratically elected government in Kiev.

According to Putin, "those who have committed numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including citizens of the Russian Federation, are to be brought to justice."

Ukraine War: Will Putin Fall?

US historian Aaron Aster also believes regime change is possible - but in Moscow.

“It will not happen through an external military invasion of Russia.

It will be mutiny and internal collapse that will bring down Putin's regime.

It won't happen overnight, but it will happen," Aster tweeted.

Similarly, US Lieutenant General a.

D. Mark Hertling, who was involved in training Ukrainian soldiers, tweeted the situation.

Hertling points out that although Russia has more military resources than Ukraine, Russian soldiers are poorly trained.

In addition, history has shown that "forces with an unshakable belief in what they are fighting for - with the right support - can overcome a force that appears to have superior resources." Hertling writes that Ukraine has the world behind it Twitter, the Kremlin not even its own people.

This was indicated by the anti-war protests in several Russian cities.

The war between Moscow and Kiev will be long, but "whether you call it an 'uprising' or a 'guerrilla war', Ukraine will wear down the enemy" and Putin will meet the same fate as "Stalin, Hitler, Ceausescu and Saddam “.

Ukraine war: "Militarily, things should be over in a few days"

For Herfried Münkler, on the other hand, “Ukraine is lost.

The Russians will occupy them," said the emeritus professor for political theory at the Humboldt University in Berlin in an interview with Die

.

“It may be that the chunk is too big for them economically and they ultimately choke on it.

But militarily things should be over in a few days.”

Münkler does not believe in a kind of partisan war, as retired Generalleutnant Hertling considers likely.

Unlike in Afghanistan, where the population was finally able to drive out the Soviet troops after the invasion in 1979, Ukraine's topography does not favor a guerrilla war.

In addition, there are "only the narrow corridors on the border with Poland, Slovakia and Romania where it would be possible to bring weapons and ammunition into the country," says Münkler.

Afghanistan, on the other hand, had been supported “from all sides” with arms deliveries and financial support.

Ukraine War: Is a World War Imminent?

In his declaration of war on Ukraine, Putin chose many words that made one shudder.

Towards the end of his early-morning address, however, he launched a frontal rhetorical attack on the entire world: "Whoever tries to interfere with us, let alone endanger our country and our people, must know that Russia's response will be immediate take place and lead to consequences that you have never seen in your history,” Putin threatened.

For the military expert Albert Stahel "a clear indication of the nuclear weapons arsenal that he has and that he could use," as the Swiss

said.

The danger of a world war is likely to be particularly great if there is a direct confrontation between Russian soldiers and troops from a NATO member state.

The Western Defense Alliance is currently moving troops to the eastern border of its territory.

An escalation could be triggered, for example, by an accidental incident - such as a Russian missile that misses its target in Ukraine and hits NATO territory.

War in Ukraine: Experts consider attack on NATO unlikely

However, it is also possible that Putin will deliberately advance into NATO territory, for example by trying to conquer the Baltic States.

Thus, Putin could pursue a plan to restore the Soviet empire, which until 1990 included Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania.

However, according to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, an attack on the Baltic States would lead to the collapse of the alliance and would therefore be seen as an attack on the entire NATO.

Political scientist Johannes Varwick from the Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg considers such a scenario in the Ukraine war to be unlikely: "Putin will not dare to attack NATO members," the professor for international relations and European politics told the

.

"I don't see any acute danger for other countries, because NATO's deterrence on the eastern borders has been successful.

But the situation is critical, and it is not a law of nature that Russia does not start a nuclear war after all.

Because Putin hasn’t been acting rationally for a long time.”

Münkler also does not believe that Putin will attack NATO in the Ukraine conflict.

However, he does not rule out attacks on Sweden and Finland, neither of which are part of the North Atlantic Defense Alliance.

Münkler believes "that the Russians value Finland and Sweden remaining neutral areas and not belonging to NATO".

Ukraine war: cyber attack on Germany too?

However, it is more likely that a world war could break out as a result of a cyber attack.

In the past few weeks, there had apparently been cyber attacks on Ukraine, which - intentionally or accidentally - could also spread to other countries.

US President Joe Biden had already warned last summer of the danger that could emanate from a cyber attack that got out of control, targeting Russia and China.

"I think it's more than likely that if we end up in a war -- a real war with a major power -- it's going to happen as a result of a large-scale cyberattack," Biden said.

"And the probability is increasing exponentially." Germany is also alarmed: On Thursday, the Office for the Protection of the Constitution declared that