Actions against a war

The European Union has promoted a powerful acceleration of the common response against Putin's indefensible aggression against Ukraine.

Starting today, the repertoire of actions against Russia in all fields is widened: economic, political, financial, propaganda and military support.

The EU has made a qualitative leap that conveys the seriousness it assigns to Russia's expansionism and has gone from economic sanctions to dissuasive action that, for the first time, also includes the decision to provide military combat material to third parties.

The package of sanctions announced by the European Union sends the message that this time a response is being sought that is up to the challenge.

As of today, the freezing of his funds is extended to more than 20 new senior officials and military personnel close to Putin.

The veto on any financial transaction with the Russian central bank is also immediately applicable.

No European operator will be able to liquidate financial assets from Russian reserves.

The decision announced this Sunday by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, to disconnect several of the main banks from the SWIFT exchange platform and the freezing of half of the funds in foreign reserves is oriented in the same direction. that the Russian central bank has saved to deal with contingencies.

The legal resolution of this decision on the SWIFT system may still take a few days to turn it into a "surgical intervention" that does not harm third parties.

The contradictions of the moment we live in, and that are dragged from a hesitant and blind past with Putin, mean continuing to pay for Russian gas, given that a complete commercial break has not been chosen.

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But there is more: Von der Leyen has also announced the closure of the airspace for all Russian aircraft, including the private planes of the oligarchs.

Among the costs of this measure may be that Putin, for his part, prevents the passage of European aircraft through Siberia, which is the usual and shortest route, with the consequent increase in costs.

In the fight against disinformation and propaganda, Von der Leyen has advanced the imminent banning of the "media machinery" used by the Kremlin in the European Union space to spread "toxic information".

There are no further details on how this would be done, but it is about the cancellation of the publication or broadcasts of media outlets such as Sputnik or Russia Today.

Limiting the spread of media always causes concern,

but the debate does not revolve around preventing or not the dissemination in Europe of information media that defend an editorial line in support of the Kremlin.

The EU proposes to take measures in the midst of a war against the terminals of the disinformation and propaganda apparatus supported by an aggressor power, which has already illegally invaded a country and threatens democracy and peace throughout the continent and the world.

There is another crucial decision that contains an added symbolic value.

The EU will finance with European funds the purchase of weapons to supply them to Ukraine through a coordinated unit with Kiev.

I had never done it before.

It is about trying to compensate for the enormous military imbalance between the invaded country and the invader.

The decision satisfies Zelensky's demands for military assistance, although the rate at which they arrive and their effectiveness against an autocrat who has not hesitated this Sunday to activate the nuclear threat remains to be seen.

The effectiveness of the measures also depends on the internal circumstances in Russia and the resistance of a population that is beginning to mobilize significantly.

The banking sanctions have already generated queues in front of the banks of citizens withdrawing their money.

The possible passivity of a majority of the population —without forgetting the courage of those who have taken to the streets in Russia these days against the invasion— is not equivalent to an uncritical acquiescence with Putinism.

And among the objectives of the measures is the progressive isolation of the ruling layer and the potential defection of oligarchs affected by the pressure measures in Putin's first circle of support.

The sanctions seek, at the same time, the economic destabilization of Russia and encourage internal dissidence.

At least two Russian billionaires, Mikhail Fridman and Oleg Deripaska,

Democracies must also alert their own citizens and teach about the price to pay for what is at stake.

The potentially negative effects will be different in each country, but they will certainly penalize the economy, and the cost may be high due to the increase in energy prices.

Urgent aid to refugees through humanitarian aid programs will also be inexcusable.

The first estimates point to a significant but not exorbitant impact on the economy, perhaps, at the beginning, of a point of reduction in GDP by 2022 and somewhat higher than the already worrying inflation.

The US and the EU have shown during the pandemic that they have policies and instruments to deal with this crisis with expansionary fiscal measures and a central bank strategy that avoids shocks such as abrupt increases in interest rates that favor recession.

These tools will be possible with political leadership and the commitment of citizens to confront an attack that transcends Ukraine and reaches the raison d'être—we will say it once more—of liberal democracies.