No-fly zone against Putin?

Ukraine pleads for NATO help - why the step would be so dangerous

Created: 03/06/2022, 19:31

By: Florian Naumann

Volodymyr Zelenskyj (left) and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in a photo montage.

© Uncredited/dpa/Leon Neal/POOL/AFP/fn

Dramatic images from Ukraine also hit the heart of the West.

But help in the form of a no-fly zone could be dangerous - a researcher explains the "fear".

Kyiv/Munich - In the Ukraine war, dramatic calls for help are coming from big cities like Kharkiv or Mariupol - and possibly soon from the capital Kyiv as well.

According to reports, the Russian army is increasingly cracking down on civilian targets.

A problem for the Ukrainian defenders is Russia's air superiority over the country.

This is exactly why Ukraine is repeatedly demanding a no-fly zone or - in addition to many other armaments - the delivery of fighter jets.

But the West is very, very reticent on this issue.

And gives reasons for it.

One of the main arguments is concern about a massive escalation of the conflict as far as the West - in the worst case even in the form of a Russian use of nuclear weapons.

Germany, among others, would not be prepared for this.

Ukraine war: Selenskyj calls for no-fly zone - Foreign Minister castigates "weakness" of the West

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy personally called for a no-fly zone again on Sunday.

Shortly before, the Russian army had destroyed an airport in western Ukraine with "eight rockets", according to him.

Russia did not initially confirm this news.

“Our peaceful Vinnytsia never threatened Russia in any way.

The rocket attack is harsh, cynical, the airport is completely destroyed," Zelenskyy lamented.

And the destruction of an airport could soon be the slightest argument for stronger intervention by the West in the face of shocking images of bombed-out residential buildings and the massive suffering of the people in the country.

Experts also fear that Russia will increasingly crack down on civilians.

Zelenskyy's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tried to grab NATO's honor at the weekend.

"I think it's a sign of weakness," he lashed out at the coalition's refusal to advocate a no-fly zone.

Kraine war: NATO against no-fly zone - Putin warned early on

Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg only made the position of the defense alliance clear in the Ukraine war on Friday: "We have to be very careful not to trigger a major conflict in Europe," said the outgoing NATO chief in Brussels.

"For these reasons: No no-fly zone."

What lies behind the Norwegian's words: Russia's President Vladimir Putin had threatened the West early on.

He ended his speech at the start of the war on February 24 with drastic words: "Whoever tries to hinder us, let alone create a threat to our country and our people, must know that Russia's response will be immediate and consequences that you have never experienced in your history."

In the military sphere, modern Russia (...) is today one of the most powerful nuclear powers in the world and also has certain advantages in a number of the most modern weapons systems.

There should therefore be no doubt that a direct attack on our country would result in defeat and dire consequences for any would-be attacker...

Another excerpt from Vladimir Putin's war speech of February 24, 2022.

Ukraine war: nuclear strike threat by Putin?

Various experts agree that behind the statement was a barely disguised threat of a nuclear strike - days later, Putin also put the nuclear forces on standby.

Putin has already cited the “attempt at obstruction” as the reason for the deployment.

To put it plainly: Those who actively intervene in the war on the Ukraine side can officially expect a counterattack.

Putin later described the sanctions against Russia as a “declaration of war”.

But direct participation in the conflict was also understood at NATO headquarters as a very serious red line from the Kremlin.

But that would almost inevitably be the result of a no-fly zone.

Such a declaration could easily be made - it would only be of use in the case of military enforcement.

Since the UN Security Council will not issue a flight ban over Ukraine due to the Russian veto, NATO would have to act on its own.

And with a probability bordering on certainty, push back and probably even shoot down Russian planes;

she would suddenly be a party to the war.

The "consequences" would be unpredictable, but could include direct strikes by Russia on NATO territory.

On Saturday, Putin was even clearer in this regard.

"We consider any movement in this direction as a country's participation in an armed conflict," he said on Saturday at a meeting with pilots of the state airline Aeroflot on the subject of the no-fly zone.

He almost addressed NATO directly: It doesn't matter which organization these countries belong to.

Ukraine wants no-fly zone and fighter jets: USA does not rule out the latter - but sees problems

At the same time, Ukraine is also demanding air support in a different form: by supplying fighter jets.

The US is apparently seriously considering the option.

"We are currently actively looking at the issue of aircraft that Poland could supply to Ukraine," said Foreign Minister Antony Blinken - the United States could, it is said, supply modern F16 jets to Poland if the country were to supply Soviet-designed machines pass on to Ukraine.

For the latter, Ukraine would have well-trained pilots in service.

But even this step would be tricky - precisely because air sovereignty is so valuable for Russia.

The US government also sees

a number of practical challenges, including how to get the fighter jets into Ukraine, according to the

The Polish government may also allude to this explosive question in its denial on Sunday: “Poland will not send its fighter jets to Ukraine and will not allow its airports to be used.

We help significantly in many other areas," she said on Twitter on Sunday.

Ukraine War: Could Putin Respond With Nuclear Strike?

Conflict researcher explains concrete “fear”

A burning question hovers over all these considerations: would Vladimir Putin be prepared to enter into an open conflict with the West?

Or even arrange for a nuclear attack - although this step would almost inevitably be a deadly disaster for Russia as well?

The Russian sociologist and Kremlin critic Grigory Yudin recently did not rule that out.

"There is a probability of a nuclear war," he told the

portal, which has since been blocked in Russia .

It is currently not an "immediate or concrete threat", but rather an attempt at blackmail.

At the same time, the world is on the verge of an immense war.

And man is the being capable of suicide.

Historically, people would have committed suicide for the sake of "fame."

The same could also be conceivable via the detour of using nuclear weapons by Putin.

Ulrich Kühn, head of the research department on arms control and new technologies at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg, also warned

of major dangers in an interview with the

Not only is the pressure on Putin to succeed increasing, but also on the West to intervene: “People and the media will say to their politicians: 'Do something.'

And as a conflict researcher, I'm afraid of this 'something',” he explained.

A no-fly zone would lead to NATO entering the war, he warned.

Then you are "only one or two steps away from nuclear war".

Currently there is no equally great danger.

Expert Gustav Gressel recently

emphasized this in an interview with

At some point, however, it could "get to the point where Putin can no longer make any progress or a third power from outside interferes," said Kühn.

"Whether Russia would then escalate to the nuclear threshold and detonate a tactical nuclear warhead or two is one of the questions I'm currently asking myself." (

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