The war in Ukraine has delayed the signing of the renewed nuclear deal with Iran.
This is perhaps the one good thing that has emerged from this evil war, which threatens world peace.
Not that the rejection is a reason to party: there is no sign on the horizon that heralds that at this time it will be possible to persuade the US to sign a less bad agreement.
The Americans gave up everything.
They will of course argue otherwise, but the facts show that Washington has raised a white flag.
Of all their promises for a "longer and stronger" agreement, nothing remains.
The renewed agreement is a technical extension of the previous agreement, with one dramatic difference - if the previous agreement had many years until its expiration, in the current agreement the expiration is around the corner.
This will happen in part at the end of 2025, when Iran will be able to enrich uranium again at will, and fully at the end of the decade, when Iran will be released from all restrictions imposed on it by the agreement.
But since the original signing in 2015, Iran has come a long way, which the renewed agreement ignores.
It is then enriched using outdated centrifuges, which required it to take longer to accumulate the amount needed for the bomb;
The new centrifuges she has developed and installed since then allow her to get rich much faster.
Under the renewed agreement, Iran undertakes to remove from its territory all the enriched uranium it has accumulated in the last two years since it began violating the agreement.
This is the only condition that the Americans insisted on - to return Iran to zero in terms of quantity - just like in the original agreement.
On the matter of quality they gave up;
This means that if Iran decides to violate the agreement, or when it expires, it will be able to use the new centrifuges to enrich the amount needed for the bomb within about two months.
Who here is the power
As the negotiations in Vienna progressed, Israel haired in despair. The Iranians stripped the Americans of all interest and intentions. Bank various, and you will be released from the sanctions on a number of institutions and individuals, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei // Photo: EPI,
This matter is particularly striking: Khamenei - the leader of the world's No. 1 terrorist bomber and the main bomber of the Islamic bomb - will be released from all restraint, while Muhammad bin Salman, Saudi Crown Prince and close ally of the United States, is barred from entering Washington over his alleged involvement in the assassination. Journalist Jamal Hashukaji.
While the Americans have meanwhile "insisted" in the negotiations that the Revolutionary Guards remain under sanctions, those who follow the contacts believe that the quotation marks are in place; in this matter, too, Washington may raise a white flag, if only to put that headache behind it.
On the way to the renewed agreement, the Americans also skipped all the holes that were in the original agreement.
It has no reference to other elements of the Iranian nuclear program that are essential to the bombing, it has no reference to the missiles and rockets that Iran develops to carry the bomb (and also just to harass all its rivals in the area), and certainly no reference to the regional terrorism Iran is spreading - including against the Americans themselves.
Just this week, two senior Revolutionary Guards officers were killed in an attack attributed to Israel near Damascus.
The IDF is on alert: Iran has been looking to hurt Israel for a long time, and now twice as much. It also believes that it has the flexibility to do so, in parallel with the nuclear talks. Given the amount of UAVs it distributes to its patrons in the area.
In the latest attack - a day after the Bent-Putin meeting in Moscow - Israel made it clear that it was determined to continue to act against Iranian activity in the region.
This freedom of action is essential to preserve even in Iran itself;
Although under the renewed agreement Israel will not be able to act against anything related to uranium enrichment so as not to upset the whole world, but all other components of the nucleus - and certainly missiles and rockets, drones and terrorism - will be vulnerable.
This war must take place in Iran itself.
Bennett-Putin meeting, archive, Photo: AFP
There are quite a few reasons for this, the main one of which is the asymmetry in the fact that Israel is exposed to harm by Iran's emissaries, while Tehran distances itself from testimony and danger.
Even if an activity in Iran - of which the Mossad is supposed to be the main operator - endangers Israel in response, it will create a dilemma in Tehran and make it clear to its leaders and people that they can not stay out of the game (or as Israel defines it: hit the octopus, not fight its arms).
The working assumption in the defense establishment is that not only will Iran not restrain itself, it will set a precedent and initiate.
As mentioned, she does not lack audacity, nor will she lack money.
These are not only the billions that will be thawed now, but also the huge money that will come in from oil: if a year ago Iran produced about 600,000 barrels a day, and sold them at a quarter price, under the agreement it would produce 2.7 million barrels a day, and the war in Ukraine guarantees record prices.
In other words, Iran will now earn 16 times (!) More than oil sales, huge money some of which will at least be diverted to evil causes.
Only interests
These expected trends are shaking the Middle East.
Each country responds in its own way and fears: the UAE (and not only it) is trying to get closer to Tehran;
Its national security adviser, Sheikh Tahanun Ben-Zayed, recently visited Tehran twice and stated that his country was considering investing tens of billions in it.
This is not to say that the UAE is moving away from Israel: it is seeking to buy itself protection against Iranian aggression.
Turkey, on the other hand, recognizes a regional center of power in Israel, and seeks to join it.
There is no love on Erdogan's part here, only interests.
In the new Middle East - devoid of American automatic defense and under the cynical presence of the Russians - that's the name of the game.
When Bahrain looks at the fragility of the West in the face of Russian brutality in Ukraine, it is well aware that it may be next in line.
Therefore, it seeks to preserve itself, among other things by strengthening the open covenant with Israel.
This week, Chief of Staff Kochavi visited Manama, following visits by the prime minister and defense minister - further evidence of the close ties between the two countries, but also of Bahrain's concern about Iran.
Israel is trying to play this game without dropping balls.
It is complex anyway, and will be much more complex from the moment the renewed nuclear agreement is signed.
It is therefore also essential to preserve the open, parallel routes to Washington and Moscow.
This is not to say that Israel should not have done more for Ukraine in the humanitarian axis, but in a broader view it is trying to do the impossible: both mediate and not quarrel with any of the direct and indirect sides to the conflict.
At the moment it is successful, but the main test is still ahead of us, certainly against the background of the expected changes on the Iranian front, which ensure that at least one arena will remain open and bloody in the future
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