Why the Saarland election is so important - and why Hans gets off so badly

Created: 03/19/2022, 20:52

The state elections in Saarland will take place on March 27th.

The CDU is currently behind the SPD.

An expert sees a crucial advantage that Tobias Hans lacks for re-election.

Saarbrücken - In about a week, on March 27th, the new state parliament will be elected in Saarland.

It is the first state election after the federal election.

According to the survey results, a change of power could be announced.

Since 1999, the CDU has been the prime minister in Saarland.

But according to the ZDF Politbarometer Extra from March 18, the SPD is nine percentage points ahead.

"There is a real chance for a change," says the Trier political scientist Uwe Jun. "That gives the election a special tension."

State election Saarland 2022: The election has far-reaching importance than just at state level

The election is more than a state election in Saarland.

It is also considered the first major mood test for the red-yellow-green traffic light government in Berlin.

Because in the Saar, the leap from the grand coalition to the traffic light could be repeated, as in the federal government.

While CDU and head of government Tobias Hans, who has been visibly under pressure in recent weeks, is warning of a traffic light in Saarland and wants to continue the grand coalition, Economics Minister and SPD top candidate Anke Rehlinger is keeping a low profile on the red-yellow-green issue.

Before the state elections in Saarland, Tobias Hans is behind his competitor from the SPD.

(Archive image) © Oliver Dietze/dpa

In addition, the Saarland elections are the start of a series of elections this year.

In 2022 there will still be elections in Schleswig-Holstein, North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony.

The first question that arises in Saarland is: will the new CDU chairman Friedrich Merz succeed in giving his party a boost after the federal elections?

The entire CDU national board traveled to Saarland at the beginning of March to give Hans a tailwind.

Saarland state elections 2022: Why Prime Minister Hans got off so badly

Tobias Hans has been fighting for his position as a top candidate for the first time since he was elected to succeed Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer in March 2018.

Among other things, he sees himself as the bearer of bad news in the Corona crisis.

Shortly before the election, he tries to push the CDU forward with topics that are worth talking about.

One of his demands included a fuel price brake, which he also played out via cell phone video from the gas station.

However, a corona infection around ten days before the election slowed Hans down during election campaign dates.

also read

Survey: CDU no longer the strongest force in Saarland

Almost six weeks before the state elections in Saarland, the SPD has significantly increased its lead over the CDU according to a survey.

Survey: CDU no longer the strongest force in Saarland

Survey: SPD is well ahead of CDU in Saarland

Almost six weeks before the state elections in Saarland, the SPD has significantly increased its lead over the CDU according to a survey.

If there were state elections next Sunday, the Social Democrats would get 38 percent of the votes.

This emerges from the "Saarland trend" by the opinion research institute Infratest Dimap on behalf of Saarländisches Rundfunk (SR).

Survey: SPD is well ahead of CDU in Saarland

You know Ms. Rehlinger just as well as the prime minister.

The official bonus is hardly available.

Uwe Jun (political scientist)

"Incumbent Bonus"?

Normally the incumbent is re-elected as long as voters think he's doing a pretty good job.

"Only if there is skepticism, concerns about the incumbent, then you are willing to change," explains political scientist Jun. But: "You know Ms. Rehlinger just as well as the prime minister.

There is hardly any official bonus.”

State election Saarland 2022: The possible outcomes of the election

According to the ARD "Saarland trend", two coalitions are possible: A grand coalition of CDU and Social Democrats led by the SPD and a so-called traffic light of SPD, Greens and FDP.

Expert Jun considers a grand coalition “not an unlikely solution.

With whoever as prime minister”.

In terms of content, the CDU and SPD in Saarland would “not be that far apart”.

A traffic light is also conceivable if the Greens and the FDP - currently not represented in the state parliament - manage to re-enter the state parliament.

You can find all current survey values ​​in the article on the Saarland survey.