A month before the war in Ukraine: The Russian army got stuck, and went from invading to crushing

Moscow's original plan to soon subdue Kyiv encountered heavy containment battles, and it switched to tactics it had used in previous conflicts - the slow and thorough destruction of besieged cities.

Zalansky aims to prolong the fighting as much as possible, but despite Western sanctions it is difficult to assess whether Putin is willing to withdraw

Guy Elster

24/03/2022

Thursday, March 24, 2022, 09:35

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With the start of the second month of Russia's war on Ukraine, the direction in which it is marching is becoming clearer.

The Russian invasion, which the Kremlin continues to insist on calling a "special operation," stalled largely due to fierce opposition from the Ukrainian army and poor performance by Russian forces on the ground that have yet to achieve vital air superiority in any armed conflict.

Most of the fighting has been concentrated in recent days in southern Ukraine - the port city of Mariupol in focus - and in the suburbs of Kyiv.

It is estimated that heavy casualties suffered by the Russian army forced him to recalculate a route.

Instead of an onslaught and rapid occupation of the big cities, which were halted in the first days of the war by well-trained and well-equipped Ukrainian forces, the Russian army switched to its familiar tactic of past conflicts - "slow destruction".

Now, most of the efforts of the Russian forces are concentrated on laying crowns on the city centers and their indiscriminate shelling in order to bring them to surrender or total destruction.

The scenes of destruction and carnage from the wars in Chechnya and Syria flooded the peaceful streets of Kyiv, Mariupol and Kharkov until recently, who suddenly found themselves accustomed to alarms warning of airstrikes or missile launches.

The destruction of Syria was brought to Ukraine.

Bombed shopping center in Kiev (Photo: AP)

A month of war in Ukraine - Walla!

In a special project

Despite the collapse of the Russian war machine, it is too early to assess how the conflict, the largest in Europe since the end of World War II, caused by Russian President Vladimir Putin, will end.

Moscow still enjoys an advantage in its military power over Kyiv and is exploring its new supersonic missile arsenal, while gathering fighters from Syria and other conflict hotspots that may help it soften resistance within the cities and save it losses in its ranks.

And in a more terrifying scenario, which cannot be ruled out in light of recent history, Russia may resort to unconventional weapons to try and break the morale of Ukrainian forces and residents.

It has already sponsored Syrian ruler Bashar Assad's chemical attacks against its rivals, and even before the war begins, it is spreading conspiracy theories about nuclear and biological weapons that Ukraine is allegedly developing with the help of the United States.

In the West, they are seen as a sign that Moscow is preparing the ground for its own use of such weapons.

Faults in the war plan.

Putin in video call with members of Russia's Security Council (Photo: Reuters)

As a defender, Ukraine strives to exhaust Russia as much as it can, until it withdraws from its excessive demands at the negotiating table.

Despite a series of lengthy meetings between the parties, and reports in Western media of progress and willingness to compromise, the distance is still great.

Putin has not given up his ambition to neutralize

Ukraine from any direct link with the major Western blocs - NATO and the European Union - although the chances of establishing a sympathetic regime similar to that in Belarus seem slim to none.

In the bombed-out capital, which did not accept Western proposals to evacuate the country, Zalanski's stay with the generals and his citizens stands out in the face of the actions of recent Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, who fled for his life - with hundreds of millions of dollars from the state treasury.

A 6-year-old Ukrainian girl at the border crossing in Budomierz, Poland, March 20, 2022 (Photo: Reuters)

Zalansky, who a few years ago was still a comedian devoid of any political experience, manages to elaborate on the capillaries of emotion in Western countries during his firm speeches to the various parliaments.

He managed to persuade European countries to impose sanctions on Russia that were perceived as unreasonable and to mobilize public opinion, although he did not hide his disappointment with Israel.

The Jewish president of Ukraine expected the Jewish state to stand by his country more clearly, but ignored its intricate fabric of interests in light of Russia's military presence on Israel's northern border.

The next moves of the war will be largely determined by Putin, who woke up NATO and Western countries to a long winter hibernation after many years of burying their heads in the sand in the face of aggression. The confrontation may end soon.

However, if Putin believes that he has the power to break his neighbor's spirit from the West and subordinate its sovereignty to Moscow similar to Soviet days, the bloodbath could wash over more parts of Ukraine and even spill over beyond it.

Although Western sanctions are painful, past experience shows that tyrannical states know how to adapt to them despite the suffering of the citizens and the public outrage that may arise because of them.

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