Soldiers of the Mexican Army guard the place where three kidnapped people were released, in Cancun (Mexico). Alonso Cupul (EFE)
As painful as it may be, we would have to begin to assume that Mexico is on a path that can only end in one scenario: the use of the Army to confront organized crime.
The political implications are serious, but if we don't start discussing it they could be catastrophic.
The expansive trend of crime shows that the limit in which the justice system or the civil police could confront them, much less reduce them, was crossed some time ago.
First of all, because the paramilitary armies of the CJNG and the like, which are already clandestine, surpass the national security forces, be they municipal, state or federal.
And, on the other hand, because the economic strength of the gangs to bribe, put on their informal payrolls and/or intimidate local authorities, torpedoes any possibility that the public administration becomes a brake on criminal expansion.
Given this inability, the presence of organized crime is already unbearable in a good part of the territory and in many activities.
From the electoral elections and the imposition of local authorities, to the theft of oil platforms, passing through the huachicol of gas, the extortion of businesses, the control of crops, theft of carriers, the expulsion of inhabitants, the management of tianguis and street vendors, piracy and prostitution, gasoline smuggling, clandestine logging, the introduction of weapons, censorship of local media and a long etcetera.
A few years ago it was said that the legalization of some drugs would eliminate the source of drug business and would be the decisive step to reduce them.
We have long since left that point behind.
Their "business model" resides in the territorial control of increasingly larger spaces and, once they exercise this power, they dedicate themselves to plundering all the activities in which it is possible to profit.
Their territory is not limited to the rural areas where they are already “law”, it extends its fingers to include attractive highways, rough neighborhoods of the cities, beaches, border crossings, ports and customs.
And it is no longer about ant theft or hidden introduction of weapons in the trunk, but containers on an industrial scale.
ports and customs.
And it is no longer about ant theft or hidden introduction of weapons in the trunk, but containers on an industrial scale.
ports and customs.
And it is no longer about ant theft or hidden introduction of weapons in the trunk, but containers on an industrial scale.
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is right when he affirms that the origin of crime lies in the lack of opportunities and in the impunity in which criminals operate, a product largely of the rottenness of the judiciary.
Therefore, addressing the root of the problem involves generating jobs and prosperity to offer alternatives to the population, on the one hand, and cleaning up the structure in which judges, courts and police operate.
Unfortunately for us, the strengthening of organized crime went much faster than the advances made by the Q4 government in its long-term goals.
This Tuesday the carriers closed the roads of several entities in protest because they can no longer circulate without being assaulted.
And of course they are not referring to secondary roads but to the roads that link the center of the country with the border. How long will it be before cities like Cuernavaca, Uruapan or Matamoros pass three types of demanding a monthly fee in each house of certain neighborhoods on behalf of the local chief?
And, worse still, how long will it take for an increasingly large portion of the population to prefer the installation of an authoritarian power in exchange for security for their families and their source of work?
What type of government would the avocado growers forced to work for drug traffickers or the residents expelled from towns in Zacatecas and Michoacán ask for today?
All of the above does not constitute a call for the advent of an authoritarian government, quite the contrary.
A call to do something while we can still conduct the militarized confrontation that involves stopping organized crime through relatively institutional and democratic means.
If we do not do something to safeguard this process, the military solution will "happen" to us.
First, because the expansion of the cartels will continue to deteriorate national life;
and second, because there will come a time when the population is willing to accept any alternative that guarantees a certain security.
And at that point, only the bad and worst way out will remain: the election of a fascist candidate with some charisma who promises the usual "order and peace" in exchange for a free hand, or outright,
Two data: one, in some political circles it is assumed that the generals are already in a position to exercise vetoes on issues that concern them.
For example, his opposition to General Cienfuegos, former Secretary of Defense, being investigated in Mexico after being "rescued" after the arrest of the DEA, something that AMLO himself had initially suggested.
What is a president going to do when the generals reject or demand something that interests them?
Two, in fact, the militarization is already underway, although in an unexpected way, to the extent that the 4t government has handed over important portions of the public administration to the soldiers under the argument, expressed by the president, that they were more honest and efficient than civilians.
To the extent that this notion begins to be internalized in military circles,
there will be a justification, even patriotic, to demand greater involvement in other areas.
Such protagonism and a probable popular outcry to stop crime can lead to worrying solutions.
And it is not that the military are necessarily "bad guys";
their support for public service and the popular affection they enjoy is evident.
But the involvement of the army in political power, without mediation or counterweights from society, usually translates into undesirable situations for a country and its citizens.
their support for public service and the popular affection they enjoy is evident.
But the involvement of the army in political power, without mediation or counterweights from society, usually translates into undesirable situations for a country and its citizens.
their support for public service and the popular affection they enjoy is evident.
But the involvement of the army in political power, without mediation or counterweights from society, usually translates into undesirable situations for a country and its citizens.
Maybe I'm wrong and there is still a "civilian" solution to stop organized crime.
If this is the case, we should try and exhaust all possibilities in this regard.
But it should be done without the illusion that our courts can be Swiss and our police German by magic.
The ripping of clothes in that sense would end up being an accomplice;
if inaction continues, we will end up in extreme scenarios.
Because if this fails, or even if it is no longer even viable, it would be better to use the military charter as long as it can be exercised within the institutional parameters that we have today.
If it is necessary to expand barracks, budgets and armaments and start the confrontation, it is better to do it soon,
as long as there is a political system capable of protecting this effort and not when our armed wing imposes the conditions because an unsustainable crisis demands it.
While we entertain ourselves with the back and forth of the revocation of mandate or the speculations of the succession, the real force is shifting in favor of those who are in a position to exercise violence: the savage powers, that is to say the cartels, and the legal but increasingly autonomous powers, the generals.
@jorgezepedap
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