When Dr. George Friedman's book The Next 100 Years was published in 2009, many raised their eyebrows. And those who nevertheless did not fall under the spell of illusion, and valued that humanity would continue to quarrel, saw before their eyes chiefly the battle of Islam against Western civilization.
The prediction outlined by George Friedman could not be liked by anyone - he foresaw a century of upheavals, surprising conflicts of all kinds, and even a new world war.
It was also impossible to ignore his words or dismiss them as imaginings, as Friedman was not a simple writer or academic sitting at the top of the Ivory Tower, but the founder and chairman of Stratfor - the world's largest private intelligence and geopolitical risk consulting firm. Investments.
Some have called Stratfor "the CIA in the shadows," and there is probably not much exaggeration in that.
Two things have happened since the book's release: Dr. Friedman has left Stratfor and founded Geopolitical Futures, a new body that deals with the same umbrella - geopolitical analysis and forecasting, and the predictions of "the next hundred years" have begun to materialize. In which almost no one in the West saw Russia as a threat, Friedman predicted with impressive accuracy what was to come. In the face of Western-backed countries.
Friedman thought that Ukraine would surrender to the will of the Russians even earlier, and that the war would be waged around the Baltic states.
In other parameters he was right, including the prediction that the war would expose the weakness of the Russian army and its inferiority to the world's leading armies.
The weakest link in Russia
"Geopolitically, this war revolves around strategic depth, an issue that Israel understands well, and it started two years ago in Belarus," Friedman, 73, claims in an exclusive interview with Israel This Week.
"Russia turned to take over countries to the west and south of it, in an attempt to return to the borders that the Russian Empire had in the 18th century, especially on the northern European plane that divides it from Europe. They lost these territories 30 years ago, with the collapse of the USSR. Throttle - and strive to fix it.
From the Russian point of view, their lack of control over the northern European plane and along the Carpathian Mountains is unthinkable.
From the Western point of view, the Russian presence there threatens European countries.
Hence, the collision was inevitable. "
"Cruelty to civilians has not gone anywhere."
Friedman,
Friedman is convinced that the second part of his forecast is already in full swing - Russia is failing, and no statements from Moscow can disguise its situation.
"Ukraine is too big, and the army that Russia has deployed is relatively small for the territory it sought to occupy," he explains.
"Also, the Russian commanders think they are waging a wrong war. There is no understanding of how the logistics will be secured, or how the various forces will overlap. The Russians entered the campaign on the assumption that the Ukrainians would panic and surrender. This did not happen, and now Russia must decide That would require building power for at least six or seven months, or striving for an agreement. The Russians will be eroded, and Putin realizes that his position is in danger. He made a quick bet and lost, making him more desperate and cruel. Third, in the sense that she lives on the sale of her natural resources, and her GDP per capita is ranked 86th in the world! ".
Do you actually state that Russia will cease to exist as one country within a few years?
"True. We got used to thinking of the disintegration of the USSR as the end of an era, when in fact - it was the beginning of an era.
The same forces that led to the disintegration of the USSR (economic inefficiency, poverty, military failures) continue to exist. What is left of the USSR after the image of the Communist Party has been damaged in the eyes of its citizens?
After Putin's image is damaged in the eyes of Russia's citizens, not much will be left of it.
Many of the constituencies that make up Russia can do better on their own than in today's federation.
"
"In wars leaders usually defend themselves, and soldiers are sent to die. Leaders know that nuclear war is the only kind of war where their children and grandchildren will die, and death will befall them and their loved ones personally, so I have a hard time seeing a nuclear war even on a limited scale. "Nuclear carries a death sentence on itself and its people, so it is equivalent to suicide. Only a psychic can launch a nuclear missile."
"The intimidation model will collapse"
Anyone who has read "The Next Hundred Years" knows that Friedman is certain of the impending demise of another giant, the People's Republic of China.
The fact that today it is the second largest economy in the world does not make him doubt it.
He of course knows that in the first two decades of the century the Chinese have recorded extraordinary growth, but refuses to see it as a sign of things to come, and relies on precedents from the past and elsewhere.
The United States saw a similar leap in the late 19th century: by 1880 it was a poor country, and ten years later it had already produced half of the world's industrial production. .
"China's wealth is concentrated in its coastal region, and the interior is in extreme poverty," Friedman said.
"People in western China do not see themselves as part of what is happening in the east. Its signs of disintegration are evident, for example, in the severe crisis in the real estate industry, whose share of the economy stands at 35%, the country's inability to solve the problem."
The Chinese regime has based its grip on prosperity, and it will not be able to justify poverty.
On the other hand, he will not be able to compensate for the internal problems with external aggression.
The Chinese have no one to attack on land borders, and the U.S. Navy is waiting for them in the ocean.
If they try to invade Taiwan, it will require a four- to six-hour voyage - by which time the American satellites will spot them, and the fleet will hit them.
"Let us not forget that from the middle of the 19th century to the middle of the 20th century, China was in a constant civil war. Civil war is a more natural situation for China than the unity that exists at the moment. The Communist Party will try to hold the country and use more and more intimidation and force China's existence will not survive. "
The illusion of security
Did you think that anticipating the fall of Russia and China, two countries that are perceived as a threat to the free world, would ensure a safe world?
Think again.
In geopolitics there is no vacuum.
In place of the removed threat - a new threat will emerge.
In Friedman's script, these new threats will ignite a third world war in the mid-21st century, and will play a major role, in addition to the United States, in surprising new-old actresses.
Temporary unity.
President of China at the conference,
"If Russia and China weaken, who will rise?", Friedman challenges himself and the public who read him eagerly.
"The immediate suspect is Germany, but given the lessons of the past - no one is interested in its dominance. We already see who will rise in its place. Poland plays a huge role in waging war against the Russians in Ukraine. The US considers it its first partner, it trusts it and not Germany. .
Unlike old Europe, Poland is characterized by impressive dynamism, and reminds me of Israel in that it is very aware of the dangers lurking for it, and is committed not to repeat the tragedies of the past that befell it.
"Russia's fall will pave the way for Poland's significant strengthening, which will be an anchor and a focal point for most Eastern European countries."
To the south of it, and against it, will grow another power - Turkey.
According to Friedman, the Turks will ride the Islamic wave and gather behind them the entire Middle East - except Israel.
Add to that its geographical position at the intersection of the continents, its dimensions and the pretensions of returning to the greatness of the Ottomans - and you get a scary recipe for rapid intensification.
The one who will benefit greatly from the Chinese weakening will be Japan.
It is already the No. 3 economic power in the world today, and it can quickly translate its economic power into military potential.
According to Friedman's forecast, Poland, Turkey and Japan will be equipped with nuclear weapons, and Japan will compete with the US in developing new military technologies, led by hyper-Sunni aircraft and space warfare systems. From there the road to confrontation will be short. Harbor (although the attack will take place not at sea, but mostly in space).
The Turks, the Japanese's allies, will take advantage of the US force's strike and move their armies north to strike at Poland, the American ally, and seize territory in the Balkans and Eastern Europe. More countries will join the main forces, and the war will truly become global.
In Friedman's scenario, the United States and its partners will emerge from the global clash with the upper hand.
Believe it or not, this time it will be Mexico.
Friedman predicts that the number of casualties in World War III will amount to "only" about 50,000, and most of them will be soldiers.
According to him, the presence of nuclear weapons in the hands of the warring powers will condition them against the temptation to overwhelm the potential for carnage on the civilian population.
Contrary to this prediction, the war of the Russians in Ukraine is characterized by a cruelty reminiscent of the total wars of the previous century.
"Total war means that the whole world is fighting, and Rotem is interested in all the economies and all the resources of the countries, without limit. This happened for a short time in the 20th century, and it is not happening now. The atrocities in Ukraine are an example of genocide, "Since the days of the ancient world. Despite frequent changes in the nature of the war since then, the cruelty towards civilians has not disappeared anywhere."
Why in your analysis do small and new countries not star, and Israel's place in the dramatic events absent?
"Small countries can play a significant role in the geopolitical game, but Israel is very vulnerable because of its small size, inability to withstand prolonged attrition or recovery from a powerful blow, and because of its geography, when back to the sea. It is doomed to be a regional force. Israel has excellent weapons systems, and it can forge alliances, but the mistaken thought that temporary success makes it a global power is the greatest danger for a small country.The good times are the most dangerous because they plant the illusion that you are safe.
"Abraham's agreements are an example of a great strategy, but who knows how long they will last? The thought that smart diplomacy provides security is dangerous. Israel needs to manage the balance of power between the Arabs, maneuver carefully and ensure partnership with the United States."
Your analysis is based on the United States as a dominant force throughout the 21st century, while commentators are actually turning the spotlight on the controversies that are tearing it apart from within.
"The United States is an economic empire, with the largest GDP in the world. It has learned to turn the dollar into a weapon, as the sanctions imposed on Russia illustrate. All international trade is conducted in dollars, and if a country's access to the dollar is blocked, it becomes a crippled country. The damage to the US in relation to any other country is enormous.
However, whenever we are in an internal dispute - the rest of the world appreciates that we are done.
They hope that internal disputes indicate a weakening.
This is a mistake.
"The objective power of the United States, based on its geopolitical status, has not been damaged by controversy.
We act like 'dicks', but it is no coincidence that "the United States is the most powerful power in the world".
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