France election 2022: the gap between Le Pen and Macron is shrinking - the president is threatened with a nail-biter
Created: 04/10/2022 06:33
By: Bedrettin Bölükbasi
Shortly before the election in France, the gap between Macron and Le Pen is shrinking. In contrast to Germany, there are some differences in the electoral process.
Munich/Paris – The time has come: The France election* is pending.
In the election, which will begin on April 10th and probably end on April 24th, the French people will decide who will sit in the Élysée Palace and who will play a key role in guiding the country's fortunes.
Current surveys show that the gap between incumbent President Emmanuel Macron* and candidate Marine Le Pen*, who is on the right edge of the political spectrum, is narrowing.
Compared to 2017, this time she has a much better chance of becoming president and thus putting herself at the helm of French politics, because France has different elections and the system compared to Germany.
For example, the President is much more powerful than the Prime Minister - very different from the Federal President.
France election 2022: distance between Macron and Le Pen is shrinking - candidate with questionable statements
A recent and comprehensive poll by
Politico
magazine paints a worrying picture for incumbent President Macron shortly before the election - especially with regard to the second round of the election.
Accordingly, his lead over Marine Le Pen has narrowed significantly compared to 2017.
A possible election victory by Le Pen would also have a very strong impact on Europe and possibly cause western cohesion to crumble in the face of the Russian attack on Ukraine*.
The Russian ruler Vladimir Putin* should be happy in the event of a possible Le Pen victory.
After all, Le Pen once defended the annexation of Crimea by Russian troops and also takes a largely anti-European stance.
She recently called NATO a "bellicarian organization" and described NATO's eastward enlargement as a "dangerous encirclement of Russia*".
In her election program, she refers to an alliance with Moscow - even after the invasion of Ukraine, this program point remained.
In Moscow, her positions in the last election did not go unnoticed: in 2017 she received a loan worth 9.4 million euros from a Russian bank to finance her election campaign.
France election 2022: Macron could tremble in the second round - the lead over Le Pen is getting smaller
According to the latest
Politico
poll from April 8, Macron would get 26 percent in the first round of the election.
Le Pen would get 23 percent of the vote.
If you compare this with the results from 2017, you can see that there are no big differences here.
In 2017, the gap between Macron (24 percent) and Le Pen (21.3 percent) was similar.
However, the similarity to 2017 only applies to the first round of the election.
A look at the poll results for a second-round runoff between the two candidates shows that Le Pen has caught up, and by a lot.
If there were a runoff between Macron and Le Pen - which is considered highly likely - Macron would receive 53 percent of the vote, while Le Pen would receive 47 percent of the vote.
While this is still a 6 percentage point lead for Macron, it looks bleak compared to 2017.
Macron won the runoff there with 66.1 percent of the vote and a margin of just over 32 percentage points.
Le Pen was only able to claim 33.9 percent of the votes.
Also interesting: According to the
Politico
poll, Le Pen's poll ratings, which have remained relatively flat for the past few months, suddenly rose with the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Macron was also able to look forward to an increase in his poll ratings over the same period.
However, unlike Le Pen, this effect did not last long and his values slowly returned to the previous level.
According to a recent poll shortly before the French presidential election, Marine Le Pen is coming dangerously close to incumbent French President Emmanuel Macron.
© Michel Euler/AP/dpa
France Election 2022: Presidential Election Details - President, Voters and Parliament
When the French go to the polls on Sunday, it is unlikely that a new head of state will be chosen by evening.
Because the presidential election in the neighboring country differs significantly from the election of the Federal President.
In contrast to Germany, the French President is not primarily a representative, but has a decisive influence on the country's politics.
The most important key points explained in a compact way:
What is the President allowed to do?
The French President is endowed with a great deal of power and is significantly more influential than the head of government.
He is the chief of the army and can decide on military operations and the use of nuclear weapons.
For longer missions or a declaration of war, he needs the approval of the parliament.
He appoints the Prime Minister and, on his recommendation, the other government ministers.
The head of state leads the weekly cabinet meeting, in which legislative proposals are discussed.
Parliament passes laws.
The President can dissolve the National Assembly and call referendums.
In dangerous situations, the constitution grants him near-total control over the state.
Who can become President?
All adults with French citizenship can compete if they have fulfilled their duties of civil or military service and are "morally worthy".
In order to end up on the ballot paper, 500 signatures from elected representatives as well as proof of assets and interests are then required.
How is elected?
The French President is elected directly by the people and requires an absolute majority of the votes cast.
Since none of the twelve candidates is likely to get more than 50 percent, a runoff between the two candidates with the most votes is planned for April 24th.
Around 48.7 million eligible voters can vote.
There is no minimum turnout.
When and where is elected?
The polling stations are open on Sunday from 8 a.m. to 7 p.m., in large cities until 8 p.m.
Due to the time difference, voting in the overseas territories and in some foreign missions will already take place on Saturday.
Everyone must cast their vote where they are entered on the electoral list.
Is there postal voting?
No, it is possible to vote by proxy.
If a voter is unable to attend, they can authorize someone to vote for them.
However, the proxy must do so at the local polling station of the person they are representing.
Who oversees the election?
The French Constitutional Council supervises the casting and counting of the votes and then announces the result.
He also decides in the case of complaints and irregularities.
What's next after the election?
France's new head of state usually assumes power in the Élysée Palace just a few days after his election.
It is common in France for the previous prime minister to offer to resign before the handover in the Élysée.
The head of state can now appoint a new prime minister.
And what about Parliament?
Although the French leader wields a great deal of power, without a parliamentary majority his influence dwindles.
Therefore, the parliamentary elections on June 12th and 19th are of great importance.
Without a majority in the Assemblée Nationale, the President would be forced to appoint a government made up of politicians from a different political camp.
The prime minister then becomes much more important.
There could even be a threat of a blockade of the country.
(bb with material from dpa) *Merkur.de is an offer from IPPEN.MEDIA