Macron and Le Pen fight for the Élysée

Created: 04/11/2022 05:36

A screen in Paris shows French President Macron and far-right candidate Le Pen on election day.

The two are fighting for the highest office in the country in a runoff election on April 24.

© Francois Mori/AP/dpa

More Europe or more nationalism?

With Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen running into the presidential run-off, France's voters will have a crucial impact on Europe's future.

Paris - France faces a crucial decision following the success of liberal Emmanuel Macron and right-wing Marine Le Pen in the first round of the presidential election.

Incumbent Macron, 44, and his 53-year-old challenger, Le Pen, qualified Sunday for the April 24 runoff.

Beyond France, their outcome could have an impact on the European Union, Franco-German relations and possibly also support for Ukraine against the invasion of Russia.

How did the most important candidates fare?

According to the Interior Ministry, 97 percent of the votes had been counted by early Monday morning.

Macron was therefore in the lead with 27.60 percent.

Le Pen came to 23.41 percent.

For months, polls had predicted a rerun of the 2017 duel between the Europe friend and the Eurosceptic.

Left-wing politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon came third with 21.95 percent.

Historically, the two former mainstream parties of the Socialists and Conservatives performed poorly.

What strengths and weaknesses emerged during the election campaign?

According to commentators, incumbent Macron benefited from the weakness of most other candidates.

During the Ukraine war, the 44-year-old made a name for himself on the international stage as a crisis manager.

The desire of many French people for stability in difficult times probably also benefited him.

He can also point to solid successes in the labor market from his first term in office.

The French economy took off after the Corona crisis.

Macron's late entry into the election campaign and his reputation as an arrogant loner may have had a negative effect.

Le Pen, on the other hand, relied on being close to the people and, unlike Macron, made numerous campaign appearances and market visits.

The 53-year-old put purchasing power and the cost of living at the center of her election campaign.

She presented herself as an advocate for those French who are particularly affected by rising prices.

The candidacy of the extreme right-wing publicist Éric Zemmour, who sometimes made her appear moderate with his radical rhetoric, probably played into her hands - even though experts attest Le Pen's radical right-wing demands.

Since the start of Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine, Le Pen's once open admiration for Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin has haunted her.

What does the election result mean for the EU - and for Germany?

The forthcoming course setting in the second ballot is likely to be observed internationally with excitement and concern.

Should Le Pen win, it would be another shock for the EU after Brexit and Donald Trump's 2016 election success in the USA.

While Macron is a staunch pro-European and advocates a deepening of the Union, Le Pen stands for a nationalist policy of “France first”.

She could make her country put the brakes on important EU reform projects.

Admittedly, Le Pen has abandoned extreme positions such as France's exit from the euro.

But confrontations with Brussels would be programmed with her as president.

Finally, Le Pen questions the authority of European courts, and she wants to push through a preferential treatment of the French over foreigners.

A Le Pen victory could also jeopardize Europe's united front against Russia and support for Ukraine.

Such a scenario also raised concerns in the United States.

The politician has already announced that once the war is over, Russia could become a partner of Europe again in the foreseeable future.

For Germany, on the other hand, it is about the attraction of the influential tandem Paris and Berlin in the EU.

In the current occupation with Macron and Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), the two countries work closely together.

With Le Pen as president, Germany is likely to lose its rank as partner of choice - France would likely lean towards the Eurosceptic camp like Hungary and Poland.

What are the chances for Macron and for Le Pen?

In the Macron-Le Pen duel in 2017, the liberal beat the right very clearly with around two-thirds of the votes.

Polls predict a much tighter result this time.

In addition, in France, in the past, a candidate who was second in the first round won again and again in the second round.

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For Macron and Le Pen, the next two weeks will be about mobilizing voters outside their camp.

This could be much more difficult for the incumbent than it was in 2017 - even if numerous failed candidates expressed their support on Sunday evening.

Many French people see Macron as out of touch after five years in power.

Some left-leaning voters may find it difficult to vote for him - for example because Macron has relaxed protection against dismissal and abolished wealth tax.

On Sunday evening, the incumbent warned against too much certainty of victory: "Let's not make a mistake, nothing is decided!"

Le Pen, on the other hand, who has been fighting for a moderate image for years, is now considered eligible in parts of the middle-right camp.

She could win supporters of the eliminated Conservative Valérie Pécresse in the second round.

Extreme right-wing publicist Zemmour called on his supporters to vote for Le Pen.

She can hardly hope for votes from the centre-left camp.

But it would help her if frustrated leftists simply stayed away from the election and thus boosted Le Pen's share of the vote.

dpa