This is a first trend to be taken with a lot of tweezers.
A few minutes after the announcement of Emmanuel Macron's victory on Sunday evening, most of the oppositions kicked off the battle that will animate political life in the coming weeks: that of the legislative elections.
In an early screening made by Harris Interactive for
Challenges
between Sunday evening and Monday, the new National Assembly could well grant Emmanuel Macron an absolute victory.
In the event of no agreement between the major political forces, the majority - made up of LREM, MoDem and Horizons - would obtain between 328 and 368 seats.
If the presidential camp would confirm its base well beyond the threshold of 289 deputies, the other political families would see their balance of power reworked.
To discover
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From 7 outgoing deputies at present, the RN - which won 41.44% of the vote on Sunday - could see its numbers increase from 75 to 105 elected.
Conversely, the right, which was able to count on 101 deputies throughout the five-year term, would reduce its ranks, between 35 and 65 elected.
On the left, the presidential tendencies would be confirmed on the benches of the Assembly.
The Insoumis, having obtained 21.95% of the vote in the first round with Jean-Luc Mélenchon, would progress by 17 parliamentarians in the lower house in a range between 25 and 45. The Socialists, they could save between 25 and 40 seats.
The Communists and Ecologists, finally, would not be able to form a group, below 15 deputies.
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Of course, many national and international events can shake up the trends between now and June 12 and 19, the dates on which the legislative elections will be held.
Another element to take into account: the candidates and the headliners of each camp are not yet known.
If Marine Le Pen indicated on Sunday evening that she
would "lead"
this battle, Jean-Luc Mélenchon called on the French to "
elect him prime minister
".
The right is divided against Emmanuel Macron, and the left is trying to negotiate to leave united.
As for the presidential majority, the negotiations are going well in order to satisfy all its components by the filing of the lists, on May 20th.
