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Ukrainian soldier near the front line at Izyum: area made for Russian tanks
Photo: ANATOLII STEPANOV / AFP
Just over 2,000 people lived in Novotoshkivske, two hours west of Luhansk, until recently.
Now all that is left of the small town in eastern Ukraine is a landscape of ruins.
Blurry cell phone pictures show the result of the destruction.
Many blocks of flats have been leveled.
In others there are huge holes.
Pro-Russian separatists patrol the streets.
The major Russian offensive in Donbass has been underway for a week.
After the defeat north of Kyiv, the Russian army is now fully focused on eastern Ukraine.
There it is attempting to gain control of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, an area larger than Lower Saxony.
The front line stretches over almost 500 kilometers.
It is a new phase in the war over Ukraine - possibly the decisive one.
Fighting takes place on open terrain, the fields are flat and wide.
There are hardly any forests in eastern Ukraine where Ukrainian soldiers can hide.
The area is made for Soviet tanks.
Despite this, the Russian troops have not yet been able to achieve a decisive breakthrough.
The army advanced sporadically, but was only able to conquer a few villages.
Why is that?
And how will the battle in Donbass develop?
"The Russians aren't particularly methodical."
Russia has amassed 78 tactical battalion groups in eastern Ukraine, a maximum of 78,000 men.
You will meet the most experienced troops of the Ukrainians.
The so-called Joint Forces Operation (JFO).
The 30,000 to 40,000 Ukrainian soldiers are well equipped and battle-hardened.
They know the area, they've been defending it for years.
Heavy fighting is currently taking place.
The Russian army fires artillery pieces, the Ukrainians respond with what is at their disposal.
In some places they dug themselves into trenches.
The Russians' goal is to encircle the Ukrainians, thereby cutting off their supply routes.
If that succeeds, it would have fatal consequences for Ukraine, which would then lose its most capable units.
Michael Kofman, director of Russian studies at CNA, a research institute in Arlington, Virginia, says the Russians are already in the embrace.
The Russian army is trying to advance at Severodonetsk.
"However, without substantial success," as Kofman says.
The Ukrainians retreated north of Sloviansk, but mainly for tactical reasons.
Kofman believes that parts of the Russian offensive have not yet started, that the fire will intensify in the coming days.
"The Russian army uses a lot of artillery and then moves up very slowly," says Franz-Stefan Gady, an analyst at the London International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
"That works more badly than well, because she's not particularly methodical."
The Russian armed forces have significantly better equipment than the Ukrainian ones.
But it lacks the troop strength for rapid territorial gains.
"Russia went into this war with a peacetime army, and they aren't equipped as a military to endure this type of war - especially with the casualties they've taken," says analyst Kofman.
A general mobilization would probably be necessary to compensate for the losses, but this would take time.
And it poses political risks for Vladimir Putin, who has so far only spoken of a special military operation.
»The trend is that the Ukrainians have the advantage«
The Ukrainians, on the other hand, are not short of soldiers, but have so far been short of weapons.
Kofman says that this has partly changed with the new arms shipments from the western allies.
Kyiv can now assemble new battalions.
That'll take time.
But they could make the difference in the medium to long term.
»The trend is that the Ukrainians have the advantage.«
Ukraine is not in a position to launch major counter-offensives.
But even Russia will probably not achieve more than its current goals.
Everything points to a great war of attrition.
Currently, Russian troops are slowly moving towards larger cities in Donbass such as Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
There the Russians would have to engage in urban warfare again.
"By then, at the latest, the Russian military will be so exhausted that it will no longer be able to launch a major offensive," says Kofman.
The British government is convinced that Russia launched the offensive in the Donbass too hastily.
After heavy casualties around Kyiv, Russian troops have been given little time to recover and position themselves, said James Heappey, Parliamentary Under-Secretary for the Armed Forces.
“Putin's political pressure and hubris, his desire to stand on the steps of the Kremlin on May 9th and be a hero, means thousands of Russian lives will be lost and Russians will have the numerical advantage they should have , will give up.«
On May 9th, Russia celebrates victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.
There is repeated speculation that Putin would like to announce at least a partial success by then.
So far it is not in sight.
Analyst Franz-Stefan Gady believes that Russian troops will need a longer ceasefire to regroup by summer at the latest.
Then, according to Gady, the Ukrainians might be able to counterattack.
Currently, they have reportedly gained ground around Kharkiv and Kherson, although not by much.
How big the offensive capacities of the Ukrainians really are is unclear.
Much will depend on the extent of Western arms shipments.
On the one hand, the Ukrainians need quick, easy-to-use heavy weapon systems like Soviet tanks.
On the other hand, they have to be upgraded with Western weapons in the long term in order to stand a chance in the attrition battle.
Half drone, half cruise missile
The United States and other Western countries have now promised heavy weapons for the first time.
At the Ramstein Air Force Base in Rhineland-Palatinate, further deliveries were discussed on Tuesday.
So-called »Loitering Munitions«, literally translated »ammunition loitering around«, which hovers over their target and then self-destructs on impact, have already arrived.
Switchblade 300 and 600 are the names of these mixed designs of cruise missiles and drones.
The former are primarily suitable for destroying unarmored vehicles, so the Ukrainians could use them to interrupt the Russian supply in the form of trucks.
The larger 600 model can also take out tanks and artillery.
The US government also sent Phoenix Ghost Loitering Munitions.
They are similar to the switchblade, but can stay in the air longer.
more on the subject
US Strategy in Ukraine: Joe Biden and the Difficult S WordBy Roland Nelles, Washington
This is how the war could end: "At some point this Verdun moment will come" by Katja Iken
Heavy weapons for Kyiv: How the West should arm Ukraine nowA guest article by Claudia Major and Christian Mölling
"Loitering Munitions" are probably even more helpful than conventional drones, says Gady.
Turkish Bayraktar flying robots inflicted serious losses on the Russians in the first weeks of the war, and the Ukrainians even dedicated a song to them.
The Loitering Munitions were even harder to get out of the sky, says Gady.
They are even smaller and can be used in large quantities at once.
"Neither Russia nor Western countries have the means to counter them."
Russia also has loitering munitions, but Gady says they are less sophisticated than the American models.
The Russian army is now increasingly using combat drones for this purpose.
In addition, they protect their supply routes better, they now detect Ukrainian ambushes in good time.
The Russians have become more cautious.
At the moment everything points to a stalemate.
It doesn't have to be a completely static situation, says Kofman.
It could go back and forth.
However, the images from Novotoshkivske indicate that the remaining Ukrainian population will pay dearly for every Russian gain in territory.
