The cross-sea section of the East Rail Line will open to traffic on May 15, and the entire line will be switched to 9-car Korean-made trains earlier on Saturday (7th).
The new train has three fewer carriages than the inch train originally used by the East Rail, and the passenger capacity has dropped sharply. Whether the East Rail will be forced to explode in the future has attracted much attention.
The MTR has repeatedly emphasized that in addition to the introduction of new trains, the East Rail has also launched a new signalling system. The combination of the two can increase the frequency of frequency. The frequency of the morning rush hour will be shortened from 3 minutes to 2.7 minutes.
However, can the encrypted frequency fully make up for the loss of the passenger capacity of the train with less than 3 cards?
"Hong Kong 01" analyzed three sets of data and compared the maximum passenger capacity of the two trains, the passenger capacity of each train, and the passenger capacity of the East Rail Line.
Assuming that the passenger volume of East Rail returns to its pre-epidemic level, 9 trucks will be at least 90% full during peak hours.
In addition, it is expected that more bus passengers will "abandon buses and switch to trains" in the future, coupled with the continuous development of the New Territories North, the population will increase, and the easing of the epidemic will usher in variables such as customs clearance and domestic and foreign passengers, which will make the 9 trucks even more explosive.
The Hong Kong government and the MTR have reassured themselves, saying that they will arrange short-distance flights to carry passengers by air during peak hours and busy stations to divert the flow of people.
▼Crowds at East Rail Kowloon Tong Station to Kwun Tong Line during rush hour in the morning of May 3▼
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East Rail's designed maximum passenger capacity per hour: 101,000 passengers for the old system vs. 82,500 passengers for the new system
After the East Rail Line cross-sea section is opened to traffic, the new signal system will be used, and the rush hour in the morning will be reduced from 3 minutes to 2.7 minutes.
However, 12 trucks on the East Rail Line will be the first to be retired on Friday (6th), and will be fully converted to 9 trucks from the weekend.
According to the document submitted by the Transport and Housing Bureau to the Legislative Council earlier, it was disclosed that the new signalling system can allow 42 9-car trains to run on the system at the same time, up to a maximum of about 2 minutes, and the maximum passenger capacity is designed to be one-way per hour. 82,500 passengers; however, although the frequency of the old system is sparse, the passenger capacity of 12 trucks is relatively high. The East Rail Line trains run every 3 minutes during peak hours, and the hourly passenger capacity is 101,000 one-way passengers.
However, the daily operation of the railway system will rarely reach the maximum designed passenger capacity of the system, and the actual passenger capacity will be further "discounted".
However, in terms of the maximum designed passenger capacity, the East Rail Line has switched to 9 trucks, which has reduced the number of passengers by nearly 18,500 per hour.
Passenger capacity per train: 12 trucks 3,750 people vs. 9 trucks 2,845 people
The actual passenger capacity of East Rail is affected by train design, train frequency, train service arrangements and passenger demand.
According to another data disclosed by the MTR to the Legislative Council earlier, the newly replaced nine-car train of the East Railroad can carry about 2,845 passengers, and the 12-car train can carry 3,750 passengers.
In other words, each train of nine trucks carries 905 fewer people than 12 trucks, and each train carries about 24% fewer passengers.
The MTR explained at the time that the new Kowloon train has a wider body and improved handrail positions and door distribution, which helps passengers to be more evenly distributed in the carriages. According to the passenger volume and the actual situation, adjust the frequency and add short-distance frequency to the busy station as needed.
If East Rail's passenger volume returns to pre-epidemic levels, the trains will be at least 90% full during peak hours
Train operations are generally not exhausted to the maximum design capacity level.
According to the MTR's recent public information, the rush hour in the morning is the most intensive at 2.7 minutes, that is, there are 22 one-way trains per hour.
According to the above-mentioned nine-car train, the passenger capacity of each train is about 2,845, that is, it can carry about 62,590 passengers per hour.
Can the passenger capacity of 62,590 people meet the needs of residents along the route?
Looking at the social movement and pre-epidemic data in 2019, the East Rail Line had a passenger volume of between 54,800 and 57,800 during the morning rush hours from 2016 to 2018, and the average number of passengers in the three years was 56,466.
At the same level of passenger volume, the occupancy rate of the nine-car train has reached 90.2%.
▼Cross-sea buses are crowded at the Red Tunnel entrance during peak hours on the morning of May 3▼
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Citizens "abandon buses and switch to railways", East Rail passenger volume increases again
Tian Beichen, a member of the Legislative Council of the Roundtable on Actual Politics, said on a radio program yesterday (3rd) that he had "lost" to KMB and the Metro and the two buses earlier. Several franchised bus companies are estimated to lose at least 30,000 passengers a day. Passengers who originally took the tunnel bus to cross the harbour in Hung Hom.
Most of the passengers are concentrated in the morning and afternoon rush hours.
The passenger volume of the East Rail Line has returned to the level of the epidemic, and the carriages of 9 trucks have reached 90% full during the morning rush hour.
If you add the new "transfer" bus passengers, it is not groundless to estimate that the East Rail cars will be crowded.
Other Variables: New Territories North Development Population Growth Bus Company to attract and retain tourists
As society gradually returns to normal and citizens switch from buses to subways, customs clearance will also welcome domestic and foreign tourists in the future, and the population may continue to grow, all of which will put pressure on the demand for railway services.
Tian Beichen also said on the radio program yesterday that he did not accept that the government and the MTR indicated that the maximum number of passengers per hour during peak hours was 85,000, and that the actual number of passengers was only about 60,000.
He pointed out that with the passing of the epidemic, the MTR has gradually come under pressure. In addition, the Kwu Tung Station of the Lok Ma Chau Spur Line, which will be completed in five years, will serve about 110,000 people, and the population of about 200,000 people will move into the New Territories North Development Area. It is expected that in five to seven years, Passengers may choose to take the bus to cross the sea again due to the overcrowding of the East Rail.
Franchised buses have also made moves to deal with the competition from the East Rail cross-sea section. KMB said that it will strengthen point-to-point services between New Territories East and Kowloon East and Kowloon West depending on the actual situation; NWFB and Citybus will also launch new routes, and another There are five bus lines passing through the Convention and Exhibition Station, and MTR two-yuan interchange discounts will be offered.
▼On May 3, the MTR will open the East Rail Line of Admiralty Station for the media to visit▼
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MTR pointed out that during peak hours, short-distance trains will be arranged to arrive at busy stations with air-carrying passengers.
For many citizens, they are concerned about whether the passenger capacity of 9 trucks will exceed the load.
The Secretary for Transport and Housing, Chen Fan, said at a press conference the day before yesterday (2nd): "I take the railway every now and then."
Chen pointed out that it is common for citizens to wait for two or three buses from Admiralty Station to Kowloon after get off work. It is believed that the East Rail Line will adopt the same approach in the future. It is expected that the East Rail will be able to carry enough passengers to meet the travel needs of the public.
MTR also expects that the number of passengers will increase after the opening of the East Rail Cross-sea Section. It will closely monitor the passenger loading situation and will arrange empty trains to carry passengers at busy stations during peak hours.
The MTR also pointed out that during peak hours in the morning, there are more passengers on the first two or three cards of the East Rail Southbound.
▼The 12-card "Black Teen" train is about to retire▼
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East Rail Crossing the Sea｜Kowloon Railway is expected to make money for 10 years in the cross-sea section, and additional operating fees of more than 1.03 billion yuan can be collected. Crossing the Sea｜Tian Beichen expects 30,000 passengers to abandon the bus and transfer to the East Rail. The passenger volume of the East Rail is estimated to be overloaded by water. Sea | Sheung Shui Convention and Exhibition saves 200 yuan per month compared to the bus, KMB monthly pass is 780 yuan, and you can take the East Rail to cross the sea.
Dismantling the Bureau｜Analysis of the sudden change to the 5.15 opening to traffic, two major factors that pushed the opening of the first half month East Rail Crossing the sea｜Two events welcome the opening of the Convention and Exhibition Station on 5.9 The fare difference between Admiralty and two Mong Kok stations is $20.2. East Rail Crossing Crossing | All Lines Transfer to Nine Trucks Councillors Predict that New Cars Have Accidents at the Necks of the Three Transfer Bottles
