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A playground in Kano, northern Nigeria: the country has one of the highest birth rates in the world
Photo: Anadolu Agency / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
This November, the world population will have grown to eight billion people.
Then it should reach its peak of around 10.4 billion in this century – and start to shrink again from 2098.
These findings emerge from the United Nations' recent report on demographics.
More than half of the world's population growth by 2050 will come from just eight countries: Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.
India is expected to overtake China as the most populous country in the world.
Demography researcher Paul Morland explains what the global trends mean for the future world order, why Europe in particular is in a demographically unfortunate situation - and how it can counteract it.
SPIEGEL
: Mr. Morland, for the first time since 1950, the population has recently grown by less than one percent.
How can this be explained?
Paul Morland:
Birth rates are falling sharply from Portugal to Singapore.
This is not a European phenomenon, but a global one.
In Europe, Japan, North America, Australia and New Zealand we have long been below the level of 2.1 births per woman needed to reproduce the population.
But birth rates also fell in many countries in Asia and Latin America, and even in sub-Saharan Africa.
They also fell much faster than expected in India and China, although India is still growing.
SPIEGEL:
The editor-in-chief of the British journal The Lancet, Richard Horton, spoke of a revolution in the history of human civilization in view of demographic change.
Europe and many Asian countries would lose influence.
By the end of the century we would be living in a multipolar world in which India, Nigeria, China and the US would be the dominant forces.
Do you agree with the analysis?
Morland:
As a demographer, I'm limited in my ability to predict geopolitically.
What is clear: India and Nigeria have great potential, population growth creates enormous opportunities.
This does not mean that they are also used.
In the case of Nigeria, I'm not sure.
However, India seems to be converting its demographic advantages well: Despite all the problems, we see great economic power and a self-confident society emerging.
I see China's situation less positively.
SPIEGEL:
India is expected to soon replace the People's Republic as the most populous country in the world.
What does this mean for China?
Morland:
Demographics aren't everything, but things are looking really bleak for China.
The reservoir of labor is declining.
A young population once made China's economic boom possible.
But now more people are leaving the labor market than are coming.
In addition, China is still a relatively poor country – and unattractive for immigrants.
What happens in such a situation can be seen from the example of Japan: Japan was seen as a country of the future.
Then came the demographic point where China is now - and 30 years of economic stagnation followed.
SPIEGEL:
What role did the one-child policy play in this development?
Morland:
The one-child policy was unnecessary.
The birth rate in China had already fallen from six to three in the ten years before the introduction.
Now the country has far too few children.
Currently between 1 and 1.5 per woman.
This means that the population is aging rapidly and will eventually shrink.
SPIEGEL:
The birth rate has also fallen sharply in India.
Morland:
But India is at a different point.
There is still a high proportion of young women, so many children are still being born.
India is therefore in a good phase demographically.
SPIEGEL:
The United States is also forecast to remain one of the great global powers - even though the birth rate there is low.
Morland:
The United States has one major advantage: it's still very attractive to immigrants.
Someone once said to me: The USA is like a machine that makes Americans.
And that's true.
The USA is very good at integrating people into its society, also because it has been doing this as an immigration society for well over a century.
I think the many migrants from Latin America will also integrate well.
Because of this, the US is in a much better position demographically than Europe.
SPIEGEL:
How do you see the situation in Europe?
Morland:
Europe is a demographic disaster area.
There are the countries where things are going badly, like France, Great Britain, Ireland and Scandinavia, and then there are those where things are going badly: Portugal, Spain, Italy, Germany, the Balkans.
These countries are facing what I call the demographic trilemma.
There are three key factors: a dynamic economy, ethnic continuity, and the selfishness of a society to afford small families.
You can have two of these three things, but not all three.
The Japanese, for example, have decided that they want to continue having small families and still strive for ethnic continuity – i.e. to let few immigrants into the country.
It pays for it with economic stagnation.
Great Britain has a dynamic economy despite small families - but relies on mass immigration that is ethnically changing the country.
The only example of a highly developed country that has moved away from the luxuries of small families is Israel.
It has an extremely dynamic economy while maintaining a Jewish majority.
But that's only possible because the birth rate is high and the extended family is the norm.
SPIEGEL:
So Europe has to make a decision?
Morland:
If the people of Europe don't want children, then they either have to make friends with a shrinking economy, or with the idea of letting in many more immigrants from foreign cultures, with different languages, religions and beliefs.
SPIEGEL:
Which many Europeans have so far rejected.
Morland:
What worries me is the talk of the big "population swap."
Of course, one can talk about changes in the ethnic composition of the population.
But no one "invents" that for Europe.
This is not a George Soros conspiracy.
It's the result of choosing not to reproduce yourself - but at the same time expecting the economy to boom, someone driving the bus, picking up the trash, or doing the heart surgery.
SPIEGEL:
At least Europe, unlike China, is attractive to immigrants.
So is there at least a potential way to solve demographic problems through immigration?
Morland:
Europa is popular but not particularly accessible.
It is much more difficult for immigrants, for example from Africa or the Middle East, to integrate into European societies.
There are strong cultural and even visual barriers.
SPIEGEL:
In your opinion, what would a good solution for Europe look like?
Morland:
We should create a modern, progressive nataism, a society where women want children, men are willing to do their part, and corporations encourage reconciliation.
People want a career, both men and women, want a modern lifestyle.
How can we make this possible when children are to be born at the same time?
This also includes reinventing and enabling motherhood.
SPIEGEL:
Doesn't a shrinking world population also have positive sides?
Morland:
Older populations are more peaceful and less criminal.
In addition, where people withdraw, more space for nature can arise again.
SPIEGEL:
Today there are young people who also want to do without children because of climate change.
SPIEGEL:
Fewer people don't necessarily mean fewer emissions.
I wouldn't want to reduce the population because of climate change.
I think when young people say they don't want children because of climate change, but at the same time expect someone to serve them in the supermarket or to look after their parents, then they want to consume these services but are too sophisticated to produce them.
I see that critically.
Instead, we should change our lifestyle – and also rely on technical solutions to combat climate change.
The last thing we should sacrifice is potential lives, the most precious thing of all to me.
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