Senior Israeli officials have in recent days approached the United States, requesting that the US mediator on the maritime border between Israel and Lebanon, Amos Hochstein, speed up negotiations between the two countries before Hezbollah's provocations lead to erroneous assessments between Israel and the terrorist organization and unwanted escalation.
Israel is interested in completing the negotiations before next September, when Israel is expected to start producing gas from a shark rig. The fear is that if the agreement is not signed by that date, Hezbollah will intensify the provocations, which will ignite a dangerous conflict that gets out of hand.
Lapid flies over Shark rig: "Lebanon can also benefit from the development of its economic water reservoirs" // Photo: Omar Miron, GPO
The background is significant progress in negotiations between Israel and Lebanon in drawing the maritime border. Once the issue is resolved, Lebanon will be able to move forward with the development of the natural gas reserves in its territory, which it needs due to the economic crisis.
The defense establishment points out that in light of the expected conclusion of the negotiations soon, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah is trying to create provocations and accumulate points, among other things to portray himself as a "defender of Lebanon" and later claim that Israel "folded" due to his threats.
Calculated Risk
In Israel, it is believed that this is also the reason why Hezbollah has launched UAVs at the rig in recent weeks. The fact that the UAVs that were intercepted were unarmed reinforces the assessment that this is a provocation.
The Armed Forces does not rule out the possibility of further attempts by Hezbollah to launch UAVs at the rigs in the near future, or alternatively to carry out other provocations.
According to Israeli sources, Nasrallah is taking a risk in his conduct, and does not take into account that Israel is expected to respond sharply to the provocations on his part.
Fear of further provocations.
Hassan Nasrallah, Photo: Reuters
The defense establishment emphasizes in closed talks and open threats that Israel will respond severely to provocations by Hezbollah.
The possibility that a harsh Israeli response will provoke a harsh response from Hezbollah as well, and thus Israel will find itself in a few days of fighting in the north of the country, is not ruled out.
From this one can also understand the visit of Prime Minister Yair Lapid to the Northern Command yesterday.
In September, Israel is expected to start producing gas on a shark rig and at present there is no Israeli intention to postpone the start of production.
The fear in the defense establishment is that if the agreement between Israel and Lebanon is not signed by the time gas production from the rig begins, Hezbollah will increase its provocation attempts, in a way that will force Israel to respond even more severely.
It is estimated that if the agreement is signed before the gas production from a shark rig, it will be possible to reduce the chances of an escalation that no one is interested in, also because the company that needs to drill in Lebanon is the company that will drill in Israel.
One way or another, the coming period is expected to be tense on the northern border.
One can only hope that negotiations on the maritime border will end as soon as possible.
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