Ukraine, ready to take the initiative after half a year in which Russia has failed to impose itself

Vladimir Putin is probably the most bitter about the situation in Ukraine, if you think that six months ago he believed that his "special military operation" would bring him an unappealable victory in just a matter of days, leaving his neighbor at his feet and increasing his image international as a decisive leader.

Today the reality is very different, with Volodímir Zelenski becoming a virtuous leader, capable of mobilizing his population not only to resist the onslaught but even to dream of victory, and with a large part of the Western countries supporting kyiv economically and militarily. .

It seems clear that Russia, despite its manifest superiority, is not in a position to impose its dictate.

Putin has accumulated gargantuan miscalculations about the foreseeable Ukrainian and international reaction and today, without daring a general mobilization of the country, he does not have enough troops to go beyond what has already been achieved.

In fact, he even sees how he loses positions in Kherson – where some 25,000 soldiers have been pocketed – how Crimea comes under the range of the Ukrainian artillery and the partisans active there, and without being able to complete his domination of Donbas.

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Ukraine, for its part, has not only managed to prevent the loss of the capital, but has also slowed the invaders' momentum to the point that, since mid-August, they have taken the initiative on the battlefield.

Thus, with around a million Ukrainians under arms and increasingly sophisticated equipment, it now seems openly ready to launch a general offensive on Kherson.

Even so, a possible success in that campaign should not be confused with the final victory.

A definitive victory, as Zelensky himself has pointed out, would mean the complete recovery of the territory occupied by Russia since 2014, including Crimea;

and that is something difficult for a Putin to assume, who considers Ukraine a vital interest for Russia's security and who still has tricks that he has not used.

Consequently, there can be no doubt about the determination of Zelensky and his ilk to stay the course, committed militarily to expel the invaders from their country.

But neither can there be any question about Putin's willingness, with more resources of all kinds at his disposal, to make something clear of his militaristic adventure.

From there it only seems to be deduced a mutual stubbornness in the armed way to achieve their respective objectives, prolonging

the human tragedy

It is at this point that the role of the countries that support kyiv becomes extremely important.

Moscow knows that without its involvement, with Washington at the helm, Ukraine would not have made it this far.

And that is what explains its current commitment to resolutely using its energy weapon —gas and oil—, cutting supplies to the European countries aligned with kyiv, with the clear objective of provoking widespread social discontent that leads the affected governments to give in Russian pretensions, forcing Zelenski to reach some kind of agreement with Moscow that, in short, means certifying the fragmentation of the country, leaving the territory it currently occupies in Russian hands.

There, more than in the military field, is where the key is to define victory or defeat.

Jesús A. Núñez Villaverde

is co-director of the Institute for Studies on Conflicts and Humanitarian Action (IECAH)

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