Eurozone: ECB fears 1% recession in 2023

The European Central Bank (ECB) no longer excludes a recession in the euro zone for next year.

"

explained the president, Christine Lagarde, in a speech before the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC), the body ECB policy.

Without explicitly pronouncing the word recession, she points in the factors to high inflation, which reached 10% in September, as well as the reduction in the effects of the post-Covid recovery, the weakening of global demand and the drop in confidence. .

The vice-president of the ECB goes a step further.

Of the various hypotheses put forward in September, "

," Luis de Guindos said Friday in an interview with the Lithuanian daily

.

This gloomy scenario forecasts a fall in GDP of 1% for the euro zone next year, instead of growth of 0.9% anticipated in the reference scenario.

The difference lies "

“, he specified.

It is now a total shutdown of the Russian tap that is envisaged, while the ECB was still counting in September on 20% of deliveries.

The slowdown should materialize especially in the second half and target Germany, which is highly dependent on Russian gas.

The IMF, which has just published its new forecasts, maintains at this stage positive growth of 0.5% for the euro zone.

On the other hand, both Germany and Italy will be in the red.

Focused on the fight against inflation, the ECB is expected to raise interest rates again, by 0.75% as in September, at the next meeting scheduled for 27 October.

Christine Lagarde warned of a deterioration "

.