Still 'calm and chalk' at the ECB in the face of a market and investors who, together with a large segment of the political and business world, are pushing for a cut in interest rates.
The central bank's board is determined to leave rates unchanged.
But above all, in the following press conference, President Lagarde, in all likelihood, will not provide indications of an advance in the timing after having set a move in that direction for the summer in Davos.
If the fight against inflation is in fact reaping successes (it is just under 3% in the eurozone in December) with a sharp slowdown in prices, several members of the board have called for prudence, underlining how part of this result is due to the decline of raw material and energy prices.
A joint effect also recognized by the CEO of the Bank of Italy Signorini, who then noted that, faced with the sharp decline in loans due to the monetary tightening, Europe and Italy are indeed in stagnation, but not in recession and with much smaller real effects than the credit crunch of 2011-2012.
Moderately positive signals also came from the PMI indices of the Eurozone and of France and Germany which saw small growth, while employment is still growing.
The banking sector remains healthy thanks also to good margins.
The Italian one, which in recent years was burdened by NPLs and the link with sovereign debt, has positive indicators also underlined by the report released by S&P in a dedicated focus.
Solid earnings before provisions will be well in excess of credit losses despite the slowdown in the country's economy, the report said.
The banks, through President Abi Antonio Patuelli, however hoped for a "timelier and more gradual" cut by the ECB and presented a dossier to the EU where they ask for "simplified and flexible rules" and a more calibrated implementation of the package banking and Basel 3.
Several analysts such as those from Ebury and Vontobel therefore believe that at the end of the meeting Lagarde will once again use language similar to that of December to curb market and investor expectations and that the reduction will take place precisely at June.
Timing is in fact essential: for Intesa Sanpaolo's chief economist Gregorio De Felice, 2024 will see three rate reductions, against the previous market estimates of 6, and not before June.
Even according to Bloomberg forecasts, it is unlikely that Frankfurt will reduce rates at the same speed as the US Federal Reserve in 2024 as expected by the market until a few days ago.
The voices of those who see a first decision as possible in April are therefore reduced: "The ECB will lead the way for the Fed with a first rate cut in the second quarter", says Gero Jung, Chief Economist of Mirabaud Am.
In any case, the reversal the trend now seems to have started, also recorded by market indices such as the IRS on which mortgages are parameterised.
After the peak reached at the end of 2023, the rates offered by banks have started to fall.
A breather for those who still have a variable rate loan and greater prospects for those who want to take out a new loan, perhaps on a fixed rate.
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