Turkey's marriage of convenience with Russia could give Erdogan what he needs for Turkey's elections.
But in the long term there is a risk of a tightrope act.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan is under pressure ahead of the upcoming Turkish elections.
He finds at least a partial solution to problems in cooperation with Vladimir Putin.
But the "marriage of convenience" between Turkey and Russia is a political tightrope act, analyzes Middle East journalist Stefanie Glinski.
This article is available in German for the first time – it was first published in
Foreign Policy
magazine on March 6, 2023 .
Istanbul - Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has provided Turkey with people and money, and received many benefits in return.
In the past year, Russians have flocked to Turkey.
Many are buying property, while others have come to avoid conscription, invest their savings outside the economy sanctioned by Russian President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine, or set up businesses.
In 2022 alone, Russians opened 1,363 new businesses in Turkey.
Russians in particular are now applying for residence permits at immigration offices in Turkey's largest cities, and more than 155,000 of them have been granted, according to the Turkish government.
Turkey and its economy have largely welcomed the newcomers and their money.
To some extent, they have changed the face of Turkish cities like Istanbul or Antalya, at least temporarily.
Rents have skyrocketed, but natural gas prices have stayed low.
Cafes are packed with Russian visitors, and even billboards are now occasionally written in Cyrillic.
Erdogan's deal with the devil: Russian support could help in Turkey's elections
For Turkey, maintaining and even deepening ties with Russia while maintaining its position as one of NATO's largest members is a difficult but much-needed balancing act.
Turkey is wedged between Iran and the West, has a land border with Syria, controls the only access to the Black Sea, and has sea borders with Ukraine and Russia.
Since the war began, Turkey has managed to prop up both Ukraine's military and Russia's war-torn economy.
On the north coast, Turkey has supplied Ukraine with drones used with great success against Russian forces and has helped negotiate a deal allowing Ukrainian grain to be shipped from Black Sea ports.
At the same time, Turkey has increased its purchases of Russian gas and oil, helping in part to shield Moscow from punitive sanctions.
For Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it's a devil of a business born of his own geopolitical, political and economic needs.
Erdogan faces perhaps his toughest election in May, and Russian support could help him through that.
Türkiye and Russia: Erdogan between Black Sea concerns and Syria calculations
"Russia and Turkey: This is a marriage of convenience," says Alper Coskun, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
It's certainly not an easy marriage.
In 2015, relations between the two countries soured when Turkey shot down a Russian jet that had violated its airspace in southeastern Turkey on the Syrian border.
In June 2016, Erdogan apologized and signaled his willingness to restore ties.
A month later, Russia offered to help Erdogan after a failed coup attempt in Turkey.
For Turkey, Russia offers an opportunity, but also poses a threat. An aggressive Russia controlling the Ukrainian coastal cities is certainly not in Turkey's interest, but neither is the establishment of a Kurdish state in northern Syria.
Since 2014, the United States has supported Kurdish fighters in northern Syria, while Turkey claims the Kurdish militias have close ties to the militant political Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), classified as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the United States and the European Union.
Russia is on the other side in Syria and supports Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Türkiye election 2023: Is the end of the Erdogan era near?
Türkiye election 2023: Is the end of the Erdogan era near?
Erdogan's Turkey is helping Ukraine in the war: to a "bearable degree" for the Kremlin
However, Turkey's support for Ukraine is not a crucial factor in this war, according to independent Moscow Russia expert Kerim Has.
“Military aid is certainly there and should not be underestimated, but it does not cross Moscow's red lines.
Turkey is not sending tanks or fighter jets.
That is a tolerable level for the Kremlin.”
On the economic front, especially since its all-out invasion of Ukraine, Russia has bolstered Turkey's economy with huge capital inflows, even turning a blind eye when Ankara provided limited military support to Kiev.
The two countries are currently negotiating a possible gas rebate, and Turkey has asked Russia to delay gas payments until 2024, which would mean at least temporary economic relief.
It's still a two-way street.
Turkey has become a safe financial haven for the isolated and sanctioned Kremlin.
Last year trade between the two countries was estimated at $70 billion, with Turkey being one of Russia's largest trading partners.
At the same time, hundreds of Western companies are trying to circumvent the sanctions by opening offices in Turkey to continue trading with Russia, Turkish newspaper
Hurriyet Daily News
reports.
Erdogan is Putin's only option - Turkey is dependent on Russian gas
Ahead of Turkey's May 14 elections, Putin's moves to strengthen Erdogan are his best bet.
"Putin doesn't really have a choice, so it's a pragmatic approach," says Has.
"While Erdogan is not always a reliable partner for Moscow, Putin has no better opportunity to work with Turkey and beyond: all other alternatives are more pro-Western leaders."
Pragmatism also rules in Turkey.
Geographically and militarily, Turkey belongs to the western bloc and is a key ally of the West, but economically Turkey has no choice but to cooperate with Russia.
"If Russia cuts gas supplies to Turkey, it would be catastrophic," Has said.
"If Turkey's economy collapses, European banks will also suffer as part of the loans Turkey has taken on."
Putin-Erdogan "marriage" facing difficulties?
"In the long run, Russia will remain a competitor"
Yet like all marriages -- whether it's a marriage of convenience or not -- there's a long history and potential friction on the horizon.
Erdogan recognizes Russia as a reality in the Black Sea region, especially as the United States is largely absent economically and militarily.
"Erdogan has adjusted to this: the US is shifting its focus away from the Black Sea region," explains Muhammet Kocak, an independent foreign policy analyst from Ankara.
Still, historical enmities and long-term rivalries could return, undermining today's immediate economic and political symbiosis, he says.
"Because of its partnership with Russia, Turkey has addressed its immediate security problems, primarily related to Syria, but at the same time values NATO membership and the security alliance with the West," Kocak adds.
“In the long run, Russia remains a historic competitor and a threat to Turkey's security.
That momentum likely outweighs the economic benefits.”
By Stefanie Glinski
Stefanie Glinski is a journalist and reports on conflicts and crises with a focus on Afghanistan and the Middle East.
Twitter: @stephglinski
This article was first published in English in the magazine "ForeignPolicy.com" on March 6, 2023 - as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to the readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals. *Merkur.de is an offer from IPPEN.MEDIA.
+
Foreign policy logo
©ForeignPolicy.com
