The candidates do not dare to say it, but their teams of economists know it:
next year, whoever wins, inflation will be higher
.
The 7.7% known this Friday, in truth, does not help either.
Although that number is only part of a rather uncertain succession: that of the plan to arrive.
But the question is what will happen next year.
Both the economists who work with Patricia Bullrich and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta acknowledge that inflation will be higher in the first half of 2024 and that everything depends on a series of assumptions: that Sergio Massa's Plan Lirgar works, that the Fund
is
sitting at the table and that the next economy minister be Gardel.
Even Carlos himself will sing out of tune next year.
“A stabilization plan implies removing the dirt that is under the rug and the first thing that happens with that is that you see more dirt,”
Fausto Spotorno, an economist at Ferreres y Asociados, tells
Clarín .
"Assuming that the process is similar to the exit from the 2015-2016 stocks, we could have
months of 13% inflation in the first four months
of the year," adds Spotorno.
For the consulting firm Ferreres, if 2023 ends at 120%, next year's inflation will be 140%:
Argentina will have triple-digit inflation for three years in a row, something that has not been seen since the 1988/90 period
.
In 1988 it was 388%, in 1989 it was 4,924% and in 1990 it was 1,344%.
That is the good stage, remember Gardel, Lepera and the guitarists.
"The year ends in August," an economist who works for an opposition candidate told this newspaper.
From then on it will depend on whether there is an orderly transition or if we fall into a complete macro disorder in which the ruling party is left out of the second round.
All these words mean Milei.
"If Milei has a chance to be president, the second semester is completely unstable," he explains.
And he adds with pragmatism: “The hyper at the end of the Alfonsín government was unleashed because Menem was coming.
If there is a lack of control because Milei comes on the one hand, it helps us because he ends up doing our dirty work ”.
“I am very worried,” a Peronist operator tells this newspaper, analyzing the electoral scenario.
As things are given, whoever wins will have a real validation of twenty points ”.
The three political forces do not draw a clear distance from each other.
The primaries are going to leave wounded and nobody knows how the troops and the votes will be realigned
.
This means that the next president will be weak, which does not help Minister Gardel to shine either.
"We have similar ideas... let's say cousins," says an economist from Larreta, referring to his colleagues who advise Patricia Bullrich-.
But in the discourse of the candidates it is not like that.
Bullrich said on Wednesday in La Rural that the stocks had to be removed immediately and Larreta does not believe that a stocking of this type should be taken immediately.
"Putting together the economic plan is already challenging, imagine implementing it," says a PRO economist.
Whether Horacio or Patricia win, they will be forced to seek internal consensus and then extra-party alliances, all this before starting to walk.
"The Cotolengo that Milei has behind is
the worst of the political runfla, they're going to screw it up in two minutes,"
says a PRO operator.
As happened to Espert in the province of Buenos Aires, when a series of lumpens won seats with him and then left him.
The Ks don't even discuss an economic plan, they just discuss a survival strategy.
They watched Larreta's play with amazement:
“It's money or shit.
If it works out for him, he is the new boss
,” says a national government official.
They cannot imagine a Milei presidency, and they know that parliamentary mathematics strikes down with a stroke of the pen his promises such as dollarization and his changes to the co-participation law.
As Martín Tetaz wrote in La Nación, to carry out these projects
Milei would have to close Congress
.
Modifying the co-participation law requires a special majority in both chambers and the endorsement of the twenty-four provinces.
Today Milei has two deputies (including himself) and no senators.
Thus, without the "caste" Milei will not be able to approve a declaration of the Day of the Empanada.
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