Last was the first week in which
the transformation of the instrument of power after the decline of Alberto Fernández to the re-election dream
was exposed in the open .
A photograph of the soft coup protected, without falling into the final collapse,
by a Peronist administration.
That which Fernando de la Rúa could not resist after the resignation of Carlos Alvarez as vice president.
For the opposition's voracity.
With an objective socio-economic crisis that was no worse than the current one.
In the comparison of that landscape there is a key difference: the government of the Alliance was strangled when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) closed its assistance.
The financial entity is now the one that keeps the failed trial of the Frente de Todos alive
.
There are multiple reasons for the different attitude.
One of them has decisive weight: after the US$ 45 billion loan granted to Mauricio Macri,
Argentina became the world's largest insolvent debtor of the IMF.
She couldn't let go of his hand without unleashing a catastrophe.
Therein lies the strength of the Government.
A perverse irony within the national tragedy would point out that
Kirchnerism is still floating thanks to that enormous debt taken on by the former president.
The roles in power have remained, for the moment, thus outlined.
The President complies with the formalities of the distanced position of management and strategic decisions.
Sergio Massa came to carry out, in fact, that function focused on the economy.
With political derivations.
He is part of an unstable tandem with Cristina.
The same one that Alberto knew how to integrate until August 2022 when his protégé, former minister Martín Guzmán, resigned.
The vice president oversees everything
.
She has taken up the pen again for electoral design.
The STEPs designed by the president to define a candidate continue to be seen.
That mechanism, however, does not work in a lubricated way.
The trip to Brazil to demand assistance from President Lula in bilateral trade exposed him.
A conducive delegation was formed for a great event.
Alberto and Massa were there.
Foreign Minister Santiago Cafiero and the ambassador in Brasilia, Daniel Scioli.
Also the chief of staff, Agustín Rossi.
Amen to Julio Vitobello, the secretary of the Presidency.
Three pre-candidates, two of which (Scioli and Rossi) aspire to compete in PASO.
Another (Massa) who would pretend to be without competition.
Nobody quite understood such a deployment for a mission that had a very meager result.
Perhaps it has not been fully understood that this third term of Lula in Brazil, for political reasons and context,
has little to do with the first two that served to place him in the international showcase.
Perhaps personal ties were confused with objective interests.
Alberto believes too much in the value of the personal relationship that he forged with the PT leader.
In particular, due to his visit in July 2019 to the prison where Lula was detained for a corruption conviction, later annulled by the Supreme Court.
Massa's preparations circulated on another cable car.
Two of his men, Leonardo Madcur and Lisandro Cleri, who supervises Miguel Pesce at the Central Bank, spoke with Finance Minister Fernando Haddad.
Closely trusted by Lula.
But the new alliance that allowed the holder of the Planalto his third term is greatly influenced by his vice president, Geraldo Alckmin.
Linked to traditional economic power.
Man who comes from the right and who governed San Pablo.
What is the Government pursuing?
A rescue plan so that the lack of dollars does not paralyze imports and cause a fatal blow to the declining production system.
Fact: so far this year it has sold our country for US$1.7 billion more than it bought.
That gap (credit line) is what the Government would try to cover while the IMF decides whether to advance the disbursements to alleviate the suffocation.
The National Development Bank, led by the ousted former president, Dilma Rousseff, a friend of Lula, plays a preponderant role in the operation.
Economy made a hint for a contribution to speed up construction in Vaca Muerta.
Such a network, in any case, must have the permission of the Central Bank of Brazil.
That institution is now run by Roberto Campos Neto, appointed in 2021 by Jair Bolsonaro with a mandate until 2024, under the new law on the independence of the monetary authority.
There are, by the way, two simultaneous battles that are hindering the progress of the bilateral negotiations.
Lula has been making repeated criticisms of Campos Neto.
She accuses him of mismanaging interest rates to control inflation.
Last week Bolsonaro's private home was raided and six people close to him were arrested.
A network of corruption and fraud in the Ministry of Health is being investigated for false certificates issued during the pandemic.
The complexity of the picture explains Lula's difficulties in being expeditious.
Also that public farewell that triggered a nervous laugh in Alberto.
It was when, at the joint press conference, the Brazilian president assured that the Argentine president "will now return to his calmer country."
But no money.
Lula, as compensation, made an effort to highlight Brazil's support for Argentina in the negotiations with the IMF.
No one could despise the gesture.
Although the government has been getting Washington's solidarity in this regard.
Speaking of the change in historical times, there would be another milestone to observe: the United States and Europe have lowered the political value that they knew how to have of Lula after his statements about a possible peace agreement in Ukraine.
Unanimously interpreted as an outstretched hand in favor of Vladimir Putin.
Setbacks for Massa also abound at home.
He knows that the April inflation rate, due to be released on Friday, will be another hit on the waterline of his candidacy.
The hope of lowering it in May evaporated after the last run on the dollar.
Added to the increases in tariffs, transportation and gasoline scheduled.
The minister does not stop seeking public political support.
That need does not measure consequences.
He made Marco Lavagna, the head of INDEC, put his feet in the mud.
He announced that the release of the inflation rate would be postponed from Friday to Monday the 15th.
Next Sunday there are five elections in provinces run by Peronism.
San Juan, Tucumán, Salta, La Pampa and Tierra del Fuego.
The scandal that the opposition created forced a retreat.
The error would bare several things.
The unrealism of a minister who assumes that hiding inflation for 48 hours could modify results in provinces that, a priori, the Peronist ruling party is able to retain.
Also the conviction that in the political career anything goes.
Does anyone suppose that it is a coincidence that the Syngenta company has been denounced by Customs for corruption?
This organism is directed by Guillermo Michel, placed by Massa.
Syngenta was led for 12 years by Antonio Aracre, Alberto's former adviser, ejected in one of the last bullfights, accused by the minister of having tried to destabilize him.
Nor could it be overlooked that it is a company linked to the agricultural sector.
There are even more delicate things.
Journalists who must emigrate from their companies under pressure from the Palacio de Hacienda.
Massa's difficulties constitute a disorder for the electoral assembly of Cristina and La Cámpora.
They assume (assumed) that his postulation could mean a computer of the ruling party.
Perhaps her weakness
, the time that is running out, and her desperation were the reasons for an intense Kirchnerist rumor about the vice president's nomination
.
To what?.
Mystery.
A STEP with Scioli, Rossi, Eduardo De Pedro, Juan Grabois, Claudio Lozano and even Juan Manzur does not seem to excite anyone in the ruling party.
The extremely modest offer and the deranged reality are what have installed an electoral fear in Kirchnerism that they laughed at.
The possibility of having to fight to sneak into the runoff.
Fear of being left out.
This state also explains Cristina's turn in recent days to confront Javier Milei.
Perhaps, because Macri is not in Together for Change.
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta or Patricia Bullrich do not fit in the same way in any possible challenge.
Another limitation would be the dispersive state of the opposition coalition.
Situation triggered, above all, by the struggle of the candidacies in the PRO.
In the City and in Buenos Aires.
The departure of María Eugenia Vidal cleared the horizon somewhat.
The step forward of Carolina Losada in Santa Fe for the governorship shows a saner radicalism.
In both camps the concern is Milei.
It is, according to pollsters, a phenomenon that is still disjointed.
He is a man who progresses alone, without a system.
Detail: it grows in provinces such as Mendoza, San Juan and Catamarca, spurring the idea of promoting mining without obstacles.
In contrast, it exhibits difficulties for electoral groups in the interior.
He did not do well in the Neuquén and Río Negro elections.
He gave up candidates in Santa Fe and Córdoba.
He plans to hold the fight in the City and Buenos Aires.
Will he be able to anoint the lawyer Fernando Burlando, in the main district?
Milei may end up being
the big electoral surprise
.
Before she awaits you a course that is surely very steep.
