The results of the constitutional council elections that are being held this Sunday in Chile will clear up several unknowns but, probably, the main one is not in the ruling party of President Gabriel Boric and in the left, but in the opposition: will the extreme right of the Party achieve Republican, led by José Antonio Kast, surpass the historic right that supported the two governments of Sebastián Piñera?
It is the main internal war in an election marked by citizen apathy, although, due to compulsory voting, with the probability of high levels of participation.
Some analysts, such as Pepe Auth, have even predicted that the ultra-conservative formation could become, according to this election, the leading political force on the Chilean scene.
Exactly 50 years after the coup d'état by Augusto Pinochet,
The traditional right brings together three parties in the sector: the UDI, RN and Evópoli.
These formations are currently led by new political generations, different from those who led the transition to democracy and with too fresh ties to the dictatorship.
After the failure of the previous constitutional process – last September 62% of the voters rejected the proposal for a convention – the historic right fulfilled its previous commitment to facilitate a new way to change the Fundamental Charter.
"The Chilean right is committed to the continuity of the constituent process," explained the president of the UDI, Javier Macaya, in September.
The Republican Party, linked to the Spanish formation Vox, did not do so: it remains in the original position of not wanting to change the Constitution drawn up during the dictatorship, in 1980, although subject to a dozen reforms in democracy.
The extreme right formation, whose leader obtained the first majority in the first presidential round against Boric in 2021, has managed to strengthen itself thanks to the bleeding of the traditional parties by the right.
Forecasts indicate that the main loser would be the UDI, the most ideological party of the Chilean right.
“The UDI will be the party most punished, because it is evident that many of its followers, on this occasion, are voting for Republican candidates.
Not a few are also voting for the People's Party [of a populist character], ”wrote the historic UDI leader, Pablo Longueira, in a letter to his militancy this week.
For Longueira, “Republicans will capture the effect of insecurity [the impact of the murders of policemen and the growing problem of immigration].
In this election it will be the most voted party.
It could even surpass, as in the first presidential round, Chile Vamos [the bloc of the traditional right].
If so, this time it will have a very strong impact within the UDI, RN and Evópoli", assured one of the main faces of this political force, where Kast once militated, before taking his own path in 2016.
Kast takes a selfie with candidates for the constituent council, in an image published on his social networks on May 2 from Arica.
joseantoniokast (Twitter)
Historic leaders on the right have made clear their concern about the threat posed by the Republican Party.
Former President Piñera met this week with the leaders of the sector to analyze the different forecasts.
There was even talk of the possibility that Kast's party, alone, would surpass the entire block of the traditional right in percentage of votes and in number of councillors.
What seems highly probable, however, indicates that both the traditional and the extreme right could jointly reach 30 representatives on the council –a quorum of three fifths–, just what is necessary to approve the norms of the constitutional body.
What does not seem evident will be the agreements between the two rights, because the Republican Party has historically been in favor of maintaining the Magna Carta.
a suicidal approach
“The far right [Kast and the GOP] are likely to get a relatively good result that is close to 20% of the electorate, as the current political situation favors the heavy-handed agenda
.
Kast is a well-known figure who has campaigned for his list throughout the territory and government support is not going through a good moment”, analyzes Cristóbal Rovira, PhD in Political Science from the Humboldt University of Berlin, leader of the research Apoyo
y rejection of the extreme right in Chile.
“
If so, we should not be surprised if a part of the conventional right is at stake to change strategy.
Instead of following the differentiation discourse (Macaya has been important in this), bet on a rapprochement and even symbiosis with the extreme right (the strategy preferred by Mayor Rodolfo Carter)”, says the academic Diego Portales, UDP from the University .
For Rovira, the reality of other countries shows that this bet is very risky and probably suicidal: "A rapprochement between the conventional right and the ultra-right favors the latter above all, since it ends up legitimizing itself as an actor and, therefore, its ideas win more space.
If so, sooner rather than later the extreme right would become the scriptwriter of the film and the conventional right would be subordinated to a supporting role position (just think of the current situation of the Republican Party in the US, where the The moderate faction practically does not exist and the radicals are the ones in control)”, analyzes the academic.
The researcher points to a key fact, the one feared by the left, the ruling party and the Boric government itself: the effects of a hardening of the positions of the conventional right, which, in his opinion, would hinder the functioning of the body in charge of write a new constitution.
“It would end up being very complex to achieve transversal agreements and therefore produce a text that represents the diversity of the country.
Seen in this way, one of the unexpected consequences of a potential symbiosis between the extreme right and the conventional right would be the delegitimization of the constitutional process, to such an extent that the final product could end up being rejected in the December plebiscite of this year.”
It is one of the nightmares in La Moneda: that the current constituent process reaches a text equal to or worse than the current one,
but legitimized by the citizens in the exit plebiscite next December.
That, finally, it is a proposal that does not summon the great majorities and partisan in favor of the right (unlike the previous process, which was strongly inclined to the left).
This Sunday in Chile the type of right that the South American country will have could begin to be configured.
Kast's party, which has traveled throughout Chile in this campaign, achieved 15 deputies and two senators in 2021 and a good result for the Republicans this Sunday could leave them in an expectant situation with a view to the elections to be held in 2024 (of governors and municipal) and 2025 (parliamentary and presidential).
In the traditional right they are on alert.
"In the absence of a result that favors cooperation and agreement, the case described by Nicanor Parra would arise: that the (extreme) left and the (extreme) right united, will never be defeated," as one of EL PAÍS recently recalled. the young leaders of the UDI, Jaime Bellolio.
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