Thirty-six hours passed between the brilliant killing of three senior Islamic Jihad operatives by the IDF in the middle of the night until the organization managed to recover a bit and fire barrages of rockets at Israel starting at around 36:13 p.m. The surprised organization, which had to make decisions without its senior commanders, changed its response several times, until it realized that the option of firing rockets was the most convenient for it. However, many of its launches were unsuccessful, and Iron Dome recorded 30% successful interceptions.
The IDF constantly stressed that the operation was directed only at Islamic Jihad, and that the goals had already been achieved at its inception with the assassination of senior members of the organization and their surprise. Although Hamas declared that it was complicit in the rocket fire, the army claimed that the partnership was only declarative, and in practice, Islamic Jihad alone carried out the rocket fire. The purpose of the separation between Hamas and Islamic Jihad was to remain within the original boundaries of the planned operation, and not to be dragged into a confrontation with Hamas, the stronger organization in the Gaza Strip, in a way that would have completely changed the picture.
Rocket barrage for the south and center // Yaniv Zohar
After that initial barrage, reports of a ceasefire began to arrive from Egypt, and Israeli officials confirmed that the other side was pushing hard for a ceasefire. However, quite predictably, after the Egyptian declaration of an immediate ceasefire, additional barrages were recorded – this time also to Beersheba, Gush Dan, Ashdod, Palmahim and more. In response, the IDF attacked Islamic Jihad military compounds as well as a site for manufacturing weapons, as well as a military position of the organization after mortar fire was fired from it.
The Defense Minister and Prime Minister Netanyahu stood in front of the cameras and emphasized that it is not over. Netanyahu claimed that "we are still in the midst of the campaign, even in calm – our choice," while Defense Minister Galant stressed: "The campaign is not over, I hope we will come to an end soon." However, they aimed their remarks mainly at Hamas, whose operatives did not take an active part in the rocket fire but certainly enabled and encouraged it, stressing that the IDF could harm them in the same way it harmed Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
Rocket hits in Sderot during Operation Shield and Arrow // Yaniv Zohar
In any case, barring any last-minute surprises, last night it seemed that the current round was behind us. As of this writing, no Israeli casualties have been recorded, but millions of civilians have been forced to stop their lives and enter protected areas for hours. But despite the fact that the operation is defined as very successful – and rightly so: the IDF achieved its defined goals – it is highly doubtful whether it has succeeded in restoring deterrence that has been critically damaged recently, and it is not at all certain whether Israel will not find itself in the Gaza round again within a short period of time.
In the background, it is worth paying attention to the following Thursdays and Fridays, Jerusalem Day and the Flag March. In recent years, this date has turned out to be particularly sensitive, and although Operation Shield and Arrow is now in its final stages, there is no guarantee that we will not see more rocket fire from Gaza.
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