Today, Turkish citizens go to the polls to determine whether they continue with incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan after two consecutive decades — or give an opportunity to the opposition bloc led by the chairman of the Republican People's Party (CHP), Kemal Kilicdaroğlu.
According to one recent poll, Kilicdaroglu leads with 49.3%, compared to Erdogan's 43.7%. But the poll was released just hours before Thursday's drama — the withdrawal of a secular candidate, Muharram Inja, who refused to run under the CHP umbrella.
A supporter prepares a selfie with Kilicdaroğlu, Photo: AFP
Given Inja's secular identity, the 2.2 percent who supported him would probably shift their support to Kılıçdaroğlu, but due to their rivalry, Inja still preferred not to declare his support for the opposition. If he wishes to support Kilicdaroğlu, the opposition candidate will have a chance of passing 50% and being elected president in the first round.
But it is still too early to eulogize Erdogan. Given his takeover of all state apparatuses – first and foremost the courts, the Turkish army, the Turkish intelligence organization, the police, the Bekçi neighborhood guards and the presidential guard forces known as Takviye ("reinforcements") – not everyone in the country is convinced that Erdogan will indeed accept the results and leave quietly.
As can also be seen in the above poll, despite voting patterns in favor of the opposition, most Turkish citizens still believe that Erdogan will continue to serve as president in one way or another after the elections.
Reminder: Even in the 2019 municipal elections, Erdogan refused to accept the results. After the trend of defeat began to become apparent, he did not hesitate to put pressure on the state news agency Anatolia and delay the publication of the results of the truth for 13 hours. Thus he gained time and prepared a file to appeal the results, immediately after they were announced.
Ekrem Imamaoglu votes in the Istanbul mayoral election. Had to face again, Photo: Reuters
As a result, even the judges who sat on the Supreme Election Council were forced to give in to his demand and called for re-election. Thus, despite winning the first round, Ekrem Imamaoglu had to prove his victory in re-elections, winning them by a larger margin. Only then did Erdogan have to accept the defeat of his candidate.
But today's elections are not about the mayor of Istanbul, but about the presidency and control of parliament. For Erdogan, defeat does not seem to be an option. Even his associates see eye to eye with the president. For example, Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu ironically said that he already sees the election results as a "coup d'état" against the "will of the people."
In other words, Erdogan's administration has already begun to delegitimize the elections, and even to make preparations to suppress future demonstrations by completing the purchase of tens of thousands of pepper gas capsules for use by the police so that they can disperse the opposition demonstrations.
If and when this end-time scenario does materialize, Turkey will probably enter an era of unprecedented over-centralization, and this will undoubtedly lead to an unprecedented brain drain.
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