It is quite possible that only Putin's end can put an end to the absurd war he launched to devour Ukraine and recover it within a Russian sphere of influence that had been dwindling since the implosion of the Soviet Union in 1991. The ambition displayed by the president of Russia in the destruction of Chechnya, in the skirmishes in Georgia, in the annexation of Crimea and in the underground war he waged against Ukraine in Donbas since 2014 saw their culmination with this full-fledged invasion of a European power that returned us to the bloodiest scenarios of World War II.
But Putin's plans were cut short and what was intended to be a lightning occupation and conquest ran aground on Ukrainian territory. The unexpected courage shown by its president, Volodímir Zelenski, and his army, with the unconditional and measured support of the West, together with the bald heads of their own military strategy plunged the conflict into a long-term war that threatens to become a new focus of lasting armed conflict like those that shake the Middle East. But, a year and a half after trying to rewrite Russian patriotic history, he now faces the greatest challenge his adventure has brought. And, for the first time, the enemy is within.
From the beginning it was clear that Ukraine alone could not stop the war, even with all the armaments and aid received from Europe and the United States. The patriotic effort of the Ukrainian soldiers and the enormous international support has been enough, which cannot go any further in the face of a threatening nuclear power such as Russia. Only if an internal element of dissension emerged could the contrived consensus created in Russia around Putin and his war be jeopardized.
Many, many brave Russians tried. But many were imprisoned, thousands fled, and all saw the enormous punishment of dissidents in prison. That is why the challenge could only come from the regime. The war is Putin's and its continuation has always depended on his internal power. That is why the outbreak of this rebellion by the leader of the Wagner mercenary group is the first indication of internal dissent and has the potential to unleash the most anticipated question: is it the beginning of the end?
Prigozhin's troops, torn from the most impoverished Russian prisons and often against local populations who saw their criminals, murderers or rapists go as heroes to the front in exchange for pardon, have reached the limit. Used as a spearhead, in the front line where the regular troops did not arrive, Wagner's men have suffered in their own flesh the death and mutilations that they themselves have also inflicted on the invaded Ukrainian. They are criminals and as such have behaved on the front. Russia will not be able to separate its image from that of these mercenaries. And so it is even more paradoxical that the most critical link in the chain is the one that has been broken. But that's the way it is.
The challenge of Prigozhin, who promises to reach Moscow to finish off the Russian military high command and defense minister, will surely end in disaster. He and the Russian military establishment are two opposite sides of the same coin that will hardly meet. But their messages reach the Russians, who are neither fully nor objectively informed, and will undermine a certain public opinion that perceives the distaste of internal betrayal. It will make a dent. And it's time to measure forces.
Blows and revolutions do not usually have a single date. But while they measure their strengths, while the front is unprotected and while Zelensky and the West can only celebrate new signs of weakness, we can say that today a new page, a new chapter, has been written in this atrocious war. The beginning of the end, hopefully and without saving lives, may be closer.
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