The operation that began tonight in Jenin is a necessity. It was planned to be carried out a few weeks ago, but was postponed each time for operational and intelligence reasons - so that it could be carried out so that it would achieve maximum effect with minimal damage.
The decision to launch the operation was made in light of the fact that in the Jenin area in general, and in the city's refugee camp in particular, a dangerous mass of terrorists and weapons had accumulated. This is reflected in the dry data: in the past two years, more than 50 shooting attacks have been carried out of the refugee camp, in which 3 Israelis were murdered and 14 were wounded.
Documentation: Airstrike in Jenin in broad daylight // Credit: Arab networks
Dozens of terrorists fled to the refugee camp because they believed it granted them immunity, despite many operations carried out there with the aim of damaging the terrorist infrastructure. The difference between the previous promotions and the current operation is in scope and duration. Previous operations were short-lived and based on precise intelligence. The forces entered the city to capture or kill a specific wanted person, and as soon as they completed their mission, they left the scene.
Smoke over a mosque in Jenin, this morning, photo: None
The current operation is also based on precise intelligence from the Shin Bet. It began with an airstrike on a joint headquarters of the terrorist organizations in the refugee camp and the takeover and damage of buildings used as shelters for terrorists and the manufacture of weapons, but the mass of forces participating in it is also intended for other purposes – to collect intelligence on the move and to rely on field interrogations of detainees, so that it will be possible to thwart terrorists and additional infrastructure about whom there is no prior intelligence or lacking intelligence.
The IDF aspires to keep the operation as short as possible. This is not an updated edition of Defensive Shield, but rather a limited brigade operation, the continuation of which will increase the risk of harm to forces and harm to innocent Palestinians. A lengthy operation will also increase international criticism of Israel, at a time when the government's political credit is particularly short.
IDF launches operation in Jenin: documentation of forces in action // Credit: IDF Spokesperson
Therefore, it must present today in world capitals the reasons for the operation – the scope of terrorism carried out from Jenin and its dangers, including regional escalation – and the objectives of the operation – targeting terrorist infrastructure but not civilians, and avoiding harming non-involved civilians.
Armed men in Jenin, today, Photo: AP
The most optimistic scenario of the operation is that the terrorist infrastructure in the Jenin refugee camp will be damaged in such a way as to allow the Palestinian Authority's security forces to retake control of the site. The likelihood of this scenario is low to slim, and it is reasonable to assume that even after the operation is completed, the IDF will be required to maintain deterrence and fight terrorism in the refugee camp – as it has done in the past.
The realistic scenario is that the operation will significantly damage the terrorist infrastructure in the refugee camp, and it will take time to rehabilitate them. During the operation (and perhaps even after it) there will be attempts to harm forces and civilians in Judea and Samaria and within the Green Line, which requires heightened security and civilian alertness.
Smoke over Jenin following IDF strikes, photo: Reuters
The pessimistic scenario is that the operation will become complicated, that there will be casualties, that the terrorist organizations from Gaza (which are responsible for operating a significant part of the terrorist squads in Jenin) will respond and open another front in the south, and that perhaps the Hamas representative in Lebanon will also try to unite fronts against Israel. This requires Israel to demonstrate firmness and determination on all fronts, and to convey physical and diplomatic messages in all of them that Israel acts only against terrorism in Jenin, but will not hesitate to expand its activity to other sectors if required.
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