The heat wave, which is unusual in terms of its length, is still hitting Israel with its intensity, it seems that this August will be hotter than usual, with a peak of 32 degrees Celsius on average, and we are all trying to cool down in every possible way. There seems to be nothing to talk about now about cool weather or the next winter that seems far away. But that's exactly what the weather forecasting company Meteo-Tech did today, which published a rainfall forecast for the coming October, November and December, which are the early winter months in Israel.
Sharbi weather: Heavy heat on the beach in Ashkelon // Photo: Yaniv Zohar
According to the company's forecast, which relies on international seasonal forecasting models, the early months of next winter are expected to be rainier than the usual multi-year average in Israel.
In a conversation with Meteo-Tech CEO Dr. Noah Wolfson, the forecaster explained that there are factors around the world that evaluate not only weekly or daily forecasts, but are also busy evaluating seasonal scenarios ahead of time, based on an examination of water temperature in the oceans and a weighting of other climate data.
Bathing beaches in winter, photo: Coco
"We at the company tested two seasonal models of long-term weather, one model is the European Weather Forecasting Organization's (ECMWF) forecasting model, and we also tested a prediction model from Columbia University. These two models together predict that the beginning of winter in Israel will be rainy. It should be noted that these are models that are updated every month and we will update our forecast later according to the update of these models.
The Cleon heat wave is here to stay. Bathing on the beach in Tel Aviv, photo: Coco
Regarding the accuracy of these models, Dr. Noah Wolfson noted that their accuracy is relatively high and stands at about 75 percent. However, he said, the models should only be taken as an expression that gives a general direction of the forecast, and we should wait and see whether they will not change their forecast in the coming months.
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