This is a crucial election. For Pedro Sánchez, the socialist prime minister, it is "very important (...) for the world and for Europe." The reason? The possible coming to power of an alliance between the conservative right and the far-right party Vox.
As a sign of the importance given to this election, turnout was up sharply at 14 p.m. It stood at 40.48%, compared to 37.92% in the last legislative elections in 2019. A figure that does not include, moreover, the 2.47 million people, out of 37.5 million voters, who voted by mail, a record number due to the fact that this election takes place, for the first time, in the middle of summer.
As a reminder, the Spaniards are called to renew for 4 years the 350 members of Congress and to elect 208 senators. Voting will end at 20 p.m., but it will take about an hour for the first results to be released.
The rightwing opposition is the main favourite in these early general elections. The leader of the People's Party (PP, right), Alberto Núñez Feijóo, could succeed the Socialist Prime Minister if the polls are right. All the polls published up to Monday 17th July almost certainly believed that the PP would win. But the fact that their publication is banned for five days before the election calls for caution. Feijóo's goal is to win 176 deputies, which would give him an absolute majority in Congress and allow the PP to be governor alone. But no poll has envisaged such a score and the PP should therefore resort to an alliance.
Possible return of the far right to power
It therefore seems impossible that he can do without the support of Vox, an ultranationalist and ultraconservative far-right party that rejects the existence of gender violence, criticizes "climate fanaticism" and is very openly anti-LGBT and anti-abortion, to form a government. Such a scenario would mark the return to power of the far right in Spain for the first time since the end of Franco's dictatorship nearly half a century ago. As a reminder, the PP already governs with Vox in 3 of the country's 17 regions.
After voting in Madrid, Vox leader Santiago Abascal said he was confident the elections "will allow a change of course in Spain." And he warned the PP that the price of its support would be participation in a Feijóo government.
Gracias a todas y todos los que hoy hacéis posible que España muestre lo que es, una democracia intachable.
Pido la mayor movilización para que el Gobierno que salga de las urnas sea fuerte y España pueda avanzar cuatro años más. pic.twitter.com/nhBjsE6itz
— Pedro Sánchez (@sanchezcastejon) July 23, 2023
Feijóo, who described the PP as "a reformist centre-right party", kept his intentions vague to the end, admitting however on Friday 21 July, in an interview with the daily El Mundo, that a coalition government with Vox "is not ideal".
'Setback for Spain'
Defeated after the rout of the left in the local elections in May, which convinced him to call this early election, Prime Minister Sánchez has constantly denounced "the tandem formed by the extreme right and the extreme right". He said a PP/Vox coalition government "would not only be a setback for Spain" in terms of rights "but also a serious setback for the European project." For him, the only alternative is to maintain in power the current left-wing coalition, set up in 2020, between his Socialist Party and the radical left.
Outgoing Labour Minister Yolanda Díaz, leader of Sumar, a radical left-wing party allied with the Prime Minister, reinforced the feeling of a historic election by declaring that "for people of my generation, these are the most important elections". "It's the next decade that is at stake," she said.
" READ ALSO Legislative in Spain: "Everything seems possible"... why the election worries Brussels
In the run-up to the 2024 European elections, the shift to the right of the eurozone's fourth-largest economy, after Italy's last year, would be a stinging setback for the European left. A situation that would be all the more symbolic as Spain currently holds the rotating presidency of the EU.