William Thay is president of the think-tank Le Millénaire.
Pierre Clairé is Deputy Director of Millennium Studies, specialist in European and international issues and author of a report on elections in Spain.
The Partido Popular came out ahead in the last general elections with 136 seats. If the Spanish right is not yet assured of being able to govern, it has come a long way since it had 2019 seats since 88, its worst score. Thus, these elections in Spain allow us to draw lessons for the French right, notably on how to regain political space through an ideological revolution.
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The French right has missed two revolutions: the Macron revolution and the second conservative revolution. On the one hand, she did not understand the Macron phenomenon that made a political mutation to embody the party of order after the Yellow Vests, then the health crisis and the war in Ukraine. Nearly 60% of François Fillon's electorate voted for Emmanuel Macron in 2022. Thus, the French right has cut itself off from its liberal electorate (pensioners and CSP+) which places order in the streets and in public accounts at the heart of its concerns.
On the other hand, the French right refused out of contempt to understand the second conservative revolution operated by Donald Trump and Boris Johnson. To adapt to the changes of our time, the latter have shown voluntarism to solve the problems encountered by their popular electorates by adopting a clear line reconciling freedom and protection. Thus, the French right can no longer enchant the popular classes.
The PP wants to protect a united and Catholic Spain in a country where voters feel their identity is in danger.
In 2019, the Spanish right is in the same situation. The sovereign debt crisis (2010-2012) that hit Spain hard imposed austerity measures. They led the country to experience a political revolution by putting an end to the evidence of bipartisanship. From now on, the Partido Popular finds itself competing in the liberal segment by Ciudadanos and in the popular and conservative segment by Vox. This grip imposed a change of line for the Spanish right, in favor of a more centrist line with Pablo Casado. This change was a failure as the People's Party recorded the worst scores in its history after Rajoy's departure.
The Spanish right offers a model of ideological revolution embodied by the Ayuso-Feijóo line. It is characterized by the adoption of a clear line summed up in these terms: freedom and identity to reconnect with the history of Spain. On the economic front, the right has promised numerous tax cuts on the model of the management of Madrid by Isabel Díaz Ayuso with the aim of supporting Spanish economic actors weakened by successive crises.
Indeed, this line paid off during the health crisis, when Ayuso decided to keep shops, bars and restaurants open against Sánchez's advice to save the economy and the social life of Spaniards who remain attached to it. In terms of identity, the Ayuso-Feijóo line defends Spanish unity in the face of immigration from Morocco and regionalism. As such, the PP wants to protect a united and Catholic Spain in a country where voters feel their identity is in danger.
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The Spanish right has also broken taboos. While all the European right now have to deal with a strategic choice of alliance on a case-by-case basis with more radical movements, Ayuso and Feijóo have never had any problem talking with the far right to form local governments. This is a breaking point that contrasts with the traditional position of the PP embodied by the systematic refusal of Pablo Casado.
The French right must lead an ideological revolution. His political offer is no longer clear since the offer proposed by François Fillon. Indeed, the French right seeks to maintain all sensitivities in its party while it no longer has a Gaullo-Bonapartist leader to guide it and its electoral base has dispersed, the liberals heading towards Emmanuel Macron and the conservatives towards Eric Zemmour and Marine Le Pen. However, beyond the line, the French right must review its approach on two points.
This shows the right that if it proposes an alternative based on the greatness of the country and on a recovery program, it can bring down the far right, like a certain Nicolas Sarkozy in 2007 after the riots of 2005.
On the one hand, the French right must be the champion of the France from below by responding to the concerns of this electorate demanding more freedom and protection of its identity. On the other hand, it must adopt a proactive approach to the management of public policies. The recent victories of the right, including in Spain, show that when the right is not afraid to be right-wing, it succeeds in conquering power.
Finally, the Spanish right cannot be reduced to the Trojan horse of the far right. While the rise of far-right and populist parties is undeniable in Europe, Vox is slowing down. Indeed, Vox won 12.40% of the vote, a relative decrease compared to the November 2019 elections when they won 15% of the vote. In Madrid, Ayuso's think tank, Vox experienced its only decline at the regional level compared to previous elections, from 7% to 5% of the vote. This shows the right that if it proposes an alternative based on the greatness of the country and on a recovery program, it can bring down the far right, like a certain Nicolas Sarkozy in 2007 after the riots of 2005.
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The right is winning all over Europe. Despite this, they must all respond to a vice between the emancipation of the centre-right attracted by the centre-left and the rise of the far right. The French right must draw the consequences to regain a political space and carry a program of national greatness to place the France in the concert of nations.