When we look at Israel's political and political situation today, a rather vague picture emerges. To clarify the picture, we will need to connect the dots.
America: On the eve of the 2024 election, President Biden finds himself in a poor political situation and has to deal with the consequences of his son's corruption trial. His support for Ukraine is increasingly opposed by Republicans, and in the Middle East the Saudis have turned their backs on him and turned to China to mediate between them and Iran.
Without shaking hands: Biden meets with bin Salman in Saudi Arabia | Saudi TV
Therefore, President Biden needs an impressive diplomatic achievement. According to renowned columnist Tom Friedman, such an achievement could come in the form of the establishment of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel and a fundamental change in the Middle East. According to the president yesterday, significant progress has been made towards the possibility that this initiative will indeed be implemented in the foreseeable future.
Condition: Israeli gesture towards the Palestinians
Saudi Arabia: This week, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan visited Riyadh, offering the Saudi crown prince arms and American security guarantees in exchange for an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The prince replied in the affirmative, on condition that there be an Israeli gesture towards the Palestinians – for example, a construction freeze in Judea and Samaria or Jewish building permits for Palestinians in Area C. However, such a gesture cannot be given by the Israeli government in its current composition.
Israel: Last week, the Knesset approved the Reduction of Reasonableness Law. Why did the coalition choose to pass this law from all laws relating to reform (changing the way judges are chosen, the Override Clause)?
Coalition Knesset members celebrate the passage of the reduction of reasonableness, photo: Oren Ben Hakon
The answer, therefore, was given by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, directed at Aryeh Deri, head of the Shas party, whose return to the cabinet table was blocked by the High Court of Justice using the grounds of reasonableness. Given the focus on Deri's criminal record, it is easy to forget his moderate political outlook. Reducing the reasonableness would return Deri to the government, where he would serve as a weight against Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, allowing the prime minister to give the Saudis the necessary gesture to the Palestinians.
If Smotrich or Ben-Gvir threaten to quit the coalition, their place will be filled by Benny Gantz and his party, something that has already been discussed in the dark, according to media sources.
Open doors
Connecting these dots will give President Biden the peace signing ceremony on the White House lawn that he so desperately needs. The Saudis will get the weapons and American guarantees they so desperately wanted to obtain. But in fact, the big winner will be the State of Israel: not only will it achieve an end to the ongoing conflict with the Sunni world, but it will also have an open door into the vast Saudi economy – and through it to the massive markets of Indonesia, Malaysia and Pakistan. The political, economic and strategic situation of the State of Israel will improve significantly.
Mohammed bin Salman with Joe Biden in Jeddah, Photo: Saudi News Agency
However, connecting these points will not be simple. Much depends on Prime Minister Netanyahu's actions. Former Mossad chief Tamir Pardo claimed that Netanyahu is not led by his ministers, but in fact controls them quietly, despite the many noises and negative headlines.
If this is indeed the case, Netanyahu can achieve a historic achievement for Israel in all respects, and perhaps also put an end to the internal struggle that is tearing our country apart.
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