In the shadow of the struggles for and against the reform, tension continues in Israel vis-à-vis the multi-front campaign led by Iran. Iran does this by pressuring its proxies in the north, south, and Judea and Samaria to resort to provocations and terror, threaten harsh reactions against an Israeli response, and increase its strength with advanced weapons that come from Iran, or are manufactured and financed with its own money. The Iranians are learning from Israeli activity, and this is their version of the campaign between the wars, this time on their own initiative.
In Lebanon, Iran has been building Hezbollah as the main force for the future conflict for many years. Hezbollah has hundreds of thousands of statistical missiles of various ranges, anti-tank weapons, drones, intelligence capabilities and other means. But the main danger is building an arsenal of precision weapons by transferring missiles, missile parts, and technologies from Iran, and in recent years also converting statistical missiles and manufacturing precision missiles in factories built on Lebanese soil. Precision munitions will be a very problematic weapon in a future campaign, and therefore Israel is waging an ongoing and broad campaign to prevent or reduce the threat, as a major part of the campaign's activities.
"In Lebanon, Iran is building Hezbollah as the main force," Photo: AFP
Return to the concept of security
Nasrallah has changed his organization's behavior pattern in recent years, and recently even stepped up its provocative activity, apparently as a result of his misanalysis (as he did in the past) and the identification of Israeli weakness.
Tension on the Lebanese border: Tried to sabotage the fence - and were thwarted \\ Report
It is fed by reports in the Israeli and international media, and by the Israeli reaction (or lack thereof, rather). Examples include: sending the terrorist to Megiddo, building tents on the Israeli side of the Lebanese border, provocations by masked armed fighters on the fence, setting up intelligence gathering posts, cultivating the Radwan Force, building attack and defense tunnels near the border, creating "nature reserves" full of launchers and missile depots, firing high-trajectory missiles at Israel and anti-tank missiles at a position in Avivim and at the Ze'ev ambulance, threatening Israeli aircraft, and other provocations.
I reject misguided attempts to distinguish between "provocation that poses no threat" and an act of terrorism. This is exactly what Nasrallah wants.
"Nourished by the Israeli media", Nasrallah, photo: AFP
The time has come for Israel to "replace a floppy disk" in the north and implement the change in the security concept initiated by Prime Minister Netanyahu in 2017-2018. Israel must punish Hezbollah for every provocation and attempt to change the situation on the ground, but this is not enough. Israel must also punish those who fund Hezbollah, i.e., Iran. With Iran, the punishment does not have to come immediately and directly. There are many means to harm and weaken Iran. As happened recently in Jenin, and in the past in Gaza and the West Bank, the initiative must be taken by surprise, subterfuge, and a response that will disproportionately harm Nasrallah, his organization, and Lebanon as a state.
The fear of escalation must not lead to decisions in the IDF and the cabinet. The IDF is the strongest here, and those who have to fear a deterioration are Hezbollah and Iran, and if we act correctly, this is what will happen, as happened in the past.
Hezbollah and Iranian flags opposite the border with Israel,
Israel must regain deterrence against Hezbollah, which has been damaged in recent years. Without going into the discussion of the gas agreement again, I have no doubt that much of the loss of deterrence has to do with the conduct vis-à-vis Nasrallah during the negotiations. In my opinion, the agreement itself was marginal and would not have made headlines without the election period, but Israel had to produce gas from the field before the agreement was signed in order to maintain deterrence. Nasrallah understands strength and identifies weaknesses, and at the moment his understanding is that Israel has been deterred. It has affected his behavior since then, and this must be changed.
Hezbollah's handling of provocations in the north is directly related to Iran and Israel's broader campaign against it, which is likely to erupt in the coming years – especially if the Biden administration continues to make every possible mistake in its aspiration to reach agreements with Iran on its nuclear program, while granting it enormous advantages and receiving no compensation except for false quiet until the elections.
Deterrence has political value
In order to prevent a war in the north, Nasrallah must understand that it will not be launched according to his will and will not end according to his decision. I'm not really pushing for war, on the contrary, but if Nasrallah doesn't internalize the message, Israel must take the initiative and demonstrate a credible military threat to Hezbollah, including readiness for a broad preemptive strike by surprise, just as it demands of the United States vis-à-vis Iran.
One of the main tools of Iranian doctrine is to build stockpiles of weapons and fighters around Israel who will join the wider conflict when it breaks out. Israel must exploit Nasrallah's mistakes and attempts to change the rules of the game and establish new facts on the ground in order to massively undermine Iranian doctrine, and especially to eliminate the arsenals and factories for manufacturing and converting precision weapons built in Lebanon.
Restoring deterrence will improve Israel's standing in the region, including efforts to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia. It is very important that even on this essential issue, priorities are strictly maintained. It is forbidden to pay for normalization with Saudi Arabia in nuclear currency, not by making concessions to the Iranian program, and not by making concessions in the face of Saudi demands for independent nuclear capabilities on their soil under the guise of civilian nuclear, regardless of who supervises the facilities and which flag flies above them.
The writer is a Brigadier General (res.), a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a visiting professor at the Technion. He was Prime Minister Netanyahu's national security adviser and acting head of the National Security Council.
Wrong? We'll fix it! If you find a mistake in the article, please share with us