Winds of war: Summer, by its nature, is a season prone to calamity, even in the military arena. Armies, by nature, tend to avoid wars in winter, not only because of objective weather difficulties but also for fear of getting caught in quick-mud that will be difficult to get out of.
Defense Minister Warns of Warming on Northern Border | Liri Lakes
That is why almost every year we witness constant threats and warnings of escalation and war in almost every possible arena. Like the threats of a strike in schools, in the military world it has become familiar seasonal background music, passing and returning. Still, the situation this year is different than in the past.
150,<> missiles in the arsenal
A series of matters and processes have made the security reality in general, in the northern arena in particular, particularly challenging.
The reasons are known: Iran's growing sense of security due to its open rapprochement with Russia and China, its unofficial agreement with the United States, and the renewed relations it has forged with the leading Sunni states in the Gulf; the rapprochement between the various terrorist organizations, led and inspired by Iran, to the point of inter-front operational coordination that challenges Israel; and the rift in Israeli society as a result of the government-led legislative processes, and the growing threat to the IDF and its ability to function.
Explosion in the city of Tyre, southern Lebanon, during the Second Lebanon War, photo: Reuters
All this, and especially the last clause, make Israel's enemies feel that it is more vulnerable than in the past. This led them to try to challenge it from several fronts simultaneously last Passover. Some of them were familiar and relatively easy to deal with – Judea and Samaria, Gaza and Syria, all of which Israel has a clear and indisputable advantage and deterrence.
Unlike a wave of terror from Judea and Samaria or another campaign from Gaza, a war against Hezbollah would be a different opera. With more than 150,<> missiles and rockets, drones and drones (including attackers), special units for land and sea raids, and a variety of land, air and naval weapons, Hezbollah may not be on par with the IDF, but it can inflict heavy physical and cognitive damage on Israel – including many casualties.
Fireworks on the Lebanese border | Arab networks
This is an open balance, which is well known to both sides. From the Second Lebanon War until this year, he helped them both with restraint, as long as Jerusalem and Beirut feared deterioration into a broad campaign.
Change in the perception of deterrence
In recent months, there has been a change in this fundamental situation. Hezbollah is not yet interested in war, but it is willing to go further than in the past to challenge Israel. The terrorist he sent to Megiddo in March was clear evidence that Hassan Nasrallah's considerations had changed or gone wrong, and certainly the burning of the Second Lebanon War on him was not as strong as in the past.
Nasrallah giving a speech, photo: AP
Added to this were various tactical incidents, from the erection of tents at Har Dov, through the establishment of a series of physical military positions along the border (under civilian disguise), to friction initiated at several locations near the fence, each of which separately and all together have more explosive potential than in the past.
And if that wasn't enough, escalating rhetoric has been added on both sides of the border. Defense Minister Yoav Galant on the one hand, and Hassan Nasrallah on the other, have recently piled chips of mutual threats on the table. Each side threatens to destroy the other, return it to the Stone Age and retaliate/take revenge for everything possible.
A soldier on the northern border. To signal to Nasrallah that he has exhausted Israel's patience, photo: Eyal Margolin/Ginny
Hezbollah has already made it clear that it will protect not only its members but also every other possible interest in Lebanon, including Hamas members sheltering in its shadow (headed by senior Hamas official Saleh Arouri, who has become one of Israel's biggest headaches because of the terror infrastructure it operates remotely in Judea and Samaria).
In the current state of affairs, it is difficult to see how this escalation process has been halted. In the past, there were quite a few restraining factors in the region: the United States and France knew how to restrain Lebanon, Russia knew how to restrain Iran, and the UN also played a role whose importance changed according to who headed it. Today, these destructives have loosened significantly.
Russia has grown closer to Iran and is preoccupied with Ukraine, and the UN will certainly not save Israel. Putin with Khamenei (archive), photo: Reuters
The U.S. is losing interest in the region, has moved closer to Iran and distanced itself from Jerusalem; Russia has grown closer to Iran and is preoccupied with Ukraine, and the UN will certainly not save Israel and Hezbollah from themselves. Without significant superpower intervention, mainly the use of levers vis-à-vis Tehran, it is difficult to see calm returning to the northern border.
This means that any event could immediately develop into dangerous proportions, cause both sides to act against their vested interests – and plunge the North into war.
Beyond the fact that this will be a particularly bloody (and unnecessary) campaign, it is liable to catch Israel in a more problematic situation than in the past, against the background of the internal crisis, when there will be elements that will question the government's motives and decisions.
Shahar Yurman
Contrary to the escalating declarations, such a war will not decide either side. It will harm both of them (Lebanon much more), but at the end of the day, Israel and Hezbollah will rise up, shake the dust and return to their starting point. For this reason, too, it is worth doing everything to spare her, and her victims and damage.
This includes avoiding loud statements, which do the opposite of their original intent: instead of deterring, they imprison the other party into a particularly dangerous and adventurous game of chicken.
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