"I ask that you record in the protocol my opposition to payments to the Palestinian Authority," Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said. This was one of the first meetings of the current cabinet. The ministers discussed the transfers of funds to the PA and its many obligations to us. As someone who holds the state's budgetary tap and sees the Palestinian entity as a terror-supporting entity, the finance minister wanted to close the rift.
But Netanyahu didn't like it. "So what's your alternative?" he responded. Over time, the two developed a serious and respectful relationship. Netanyahu knew that Smotrich's comment was not intended to tail him politically, but rather to express a worldview. He, too, is far from being in love with the main fruit of shame created by the Oslo Accords – the PA. But according to him, there is no other practical option.
To the prime minister's question, Smotrich gave an answer that indicated that he had no immediate alternative to the PA. "If so, I ask that you delete things from the record," Netanyahu replied. Smotrich agreed. This exchange, in the most right-wing cabinet ever, faithfully reflects our situation, 30 years after the Oslo Accords were signed. Israel can't do with them, but neither can it. Do not swallow and do not vomit.
Israel cannot do without the Palestinian Authority, because it first and foremost manages the civilian life of the millions of Arabs living in Judea and Samaria (their exact number is unknown, and it also plays a role in the existential conflict between Israel and us). By holding Palestinian police officers and officials responsible for the garbage and sewage, insurance and education of their people, Israel spares itself this heavy and expensive daily burden. It also allows her to argue to the world that there is neither apartheid nor occupation in Israel, since most of the elements of Palestinian life are managed on their own.
A taste of HBO's "Oslo" // Archive photo
From the security perspective, the PA plays a considerable part, though not too large, in thwarting terrorism against Jews. If there was not, or will not be, IDF soldiers, both regular and reserve, would probably be required to operate in Judea and Samaria on a much larger scale than they do today.
For these weighty reasons – political, security and economic – no Israeli government, even in the most difficult situations that were not lacking, has ever reneged on the Oslo Accords or revoked recognition of the Palestinian Authority. Moreover, Israel devotes supreme efforts to ensure that the PA continues to exist. For its sake, it endangers security interests, suffers political damage, and pays a great deal of Israeli taxpayer money.
Prime Minister Netanyahu and Finance Minister Smotrich. Even the right-wing cabinet that has ever existed has an understanding that the PA cannot be dismantled tomorrow morning, Photo: Amit Shabi
Salary for terrorists first and foremost
Let's start with security. In order to keep the PA alive, Jews are being killed. The propaganda apparatus that Ramallah has been operating for the past 30 years has played a decisive role in encouraging terrorism. Its politicians, the media, Palestinian universities and schools preach hatred of Israel – hatred that translates into terror attacks throughout the country. In addition, there are, of course, quite a few Palestinian policemen involved in terrorist attacks.
The PA's contribution to terrorism is expressed not only in words but also in shekels. And a lot. These are the salaries of terrorism, whose name has become notorious all over the world. There is no political entity in the world that pays money to its subjects to kill Jews, except for the Palestinian Authority.
The most likely idea is the Emirates Plan, according to which instead of relying on a single Palestinian entity, seven local city-states would be established. The benefit of such a structure is to replace the nationalist component with family-tribal glue
Through the PLO, it provides terrorists and their families with payment, which increases the more casualties. These allowances play a crucial role for many of those who set out to kill Jews. They know that if they survive the attack, they will be rewarded for life. If they die, their family's financial security will be guaranteed. This claim is not theoretical but empirically proven. Surviving terrorists who were interrogated often admitted that money was a motive.
What's more. Inspired by the phrase "put the money where your words are," Mahmoud Abbas' insistence on paying terror allowances, which constitute about 10% of the PA budget, sends an unequivocal message to his people. Even when the cash runs out, there is no money to pay the workers, and the PA is on the verge of insolvency, it is not willing to cut a shekel from the terrorists' salaries. The message to the public is that killing Jews is more important.
Kosher certificate for the greatest terrorist
The Palestinian Authority is seriously harming Israel on the international level. Its lawsuits against Israelis are pending at the International Court of Justice in The Hague. It regularly initiates anti-Israeli moves in the Security Council and UN institutions. Although its power is significantly smaller than in the past, in the Arab and Western world it defames Israel and undermines the legitimacy of its self-defense actions. The Western media feeds on it, and Israel pays the price in its good name.
The worst damage caused by the Oslo Accords, beyond the thousands of casualties, is the undermining of the State of Israel's right to exist in the Land of Israel. By signing the Declaration of Principles on September 13, 1993, Israel effectively recognized the legitimacy of the Arab claim to the land. This foolish recognition, which also has no historical basis, crushed the justice of the Zionist movement's claim to the Land of Israel, or at least compared their demand to ours. This is a moral blow from which we have not yet recovered.
Moreover, the agreements legalized one of the greatest terrorists the world knew after World War II, Yasser Arafat, which also collapsed moral and historical positions that Israel had voiced to the world for decades. It can be said that in Oslo we began to lose the support of the democratic side for the American map, since only after the agreements was the blame for the lack of peace placed on "both sides." Until then, the Democrats were on our side.
The agreement legitimized Arafat's greatest terrorist, photo: Reuters
The political damage in turn carries a security price, since the Palestinians demand that Israel not enter areas that are supposed to be under their full control, i.e., the cities in the West Bank called Area A. In the six years between 1995 and 2001, Israel complied, even though it was known that terrorist laboratories of enormous scale had sprung up there. Closing our eyes cost us thousands of casualties of the second intifada.
Since then, the lesson has been learned, and the IDF has entered Arab cities to stop terrorists. But the Palestinians continue to rise up against this activity, and usually it is the Americans who are chaining the pressure on us, even today.
Jenin returned to being a city of terror a year ago, because Israel acceded to an American request to refrain from entering the city for several months. Since that lull in the "mowing the grass of terror," the grass there has been raging uncontrollably – the value of the six attempts to launch rockets from the area into Gilboa and the wave of terror that began there and spread to Mount Hebron and Tel Aviv.
The danger: Hamastan in Judea and Samaria
Finally, the economic factor. Israelis don't know, but their tax dollars keep the PA alive to a large extent. The PA has enormous debts on electricity and water supplied by Israel, which have not been repaid for years.
The "container sting," exposed in Israel Hayom, revealed that every year hundreds of millions of shekels that are supposed to enter the state coffers are transferred to the PA because of deceit by Palestinian importers. A committee set up by Smotrich has been examining the issue that the State Comptroller warned about back in 2020 for months, but no one is in a hurry to shut down the leak.
Israel, of course, transfers to the PA the tax money it collects for it, as it promised in the Paris Agreements. Let's assume that's okay, but in practice Israel does not deduct the terror allowances, even though the law passed by the Knesset requires it.
That is, formally the cabinet does announce the deduction of the amounts, but then financial exercises are carried out, such as "loans", "deferral of repayment", "advance payment on the account", which in effect erase the offset. Even those 600 million shekels a year allow Abbas to survive economically above water.
What Israelis also don't know is that the very existence of economic ties with the PA legally endangers the state and its representatives. Since the PA pays terror allowances, and since it is a corrupt entity according to many international bodies, it is considered a money launderer.
At any given moment, the American Anti-Money Laundering Authority (FATF), which the whole world is wary of, may label anyone who comes into financial contact with the PA as suspected of money laundering, charge them in American courts, and even label Israel. There are precedents for such labeling by Americans. As a result, Discount and Hapoalim – the banks through which money passes from the state to the PA – have been demanding for years to get rid of this dangerous task. The government established the Correspondence Services Society for this purpose five years ago, but it is still not functioning.
In the concluding line of the balance sheet, alongside the significant benefits that the Oslo Accords bring to Israel, they also cause it heavy damage. We maintain an entity that both assists and prevents the murder of Jews, causes us international damage but also alleviates them, saves money but also milks us economically.
Is the profit line positive or negative? Depends on the eye of the beholder. What is certain is that at the moment we are in a closed circle, which as of now no Israeli leader can break. Any Israeli attempt to topple the PA, certainly by the current government, will be met with unbearable American punishment. Therefore, despite the high costs resulting from the PA's continued activity, no Israeli entity seriously considers toppling it.
Even Smotrich, who rightly defines the PA as a terrorist entity, knows that his plan to apply Israeli sovereignty to all of Judea and Samaria is not feasible in the current climate in Israel or in the international arena. That is why in that debate with Netanyahu, and not only in him, he accepted the prime minister's position.
Even Netanyahu, who defends the PA and throughout his years has made sure it does not collapse, simply thinks there is no other choice. The analysis presented to him and to the ministers at that cabinet meeting showed that there is only one body ready at this time to take the reins instead of Mahmoud Abbas: Hamas.
In other words, if one Hamastan in Gaza is not enough for us – another very bitter result of the Oslo Accords – we will get a second one in Judea and Samaria. In the face of such a nightmarish scenario, it is clear that the lesser evil, i.e., the PA, is preferable. For this reason, even the cabinet of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich decided two months ago that "Israel will act to prevent the collapse of the Palestinian Authority." In other words, even the most right-wing government in Israel's history continues to guard the PA in a thousand and one exercises.
The Day After
Are we forever doomed to live with this terrible duality? 30 years after Oslo, it is precisely these days that the chances of the collapse of the PA are greater than ever. Abbas is approaching the age of 90, his rule is weak, and support for him is at an all-time low. The day it says goodbye to this world is the day Hamas tries to take over the Palestinian Authority. And not just Hamas. The prevailing assessment is that the various militias throughout Judea and Samaria will open fire, each for its own sake and leaders.
Therefore, in the same cabinet decision quoted above, there were a few more words. The aforementioned decision to act to "prevent the collapse of the PA" was conditioned on "the absence of a change in the national assessment." In other words, if we reach these difficult developments, it is possible that the national assessment will change and Israel will no longer act to save the PA regime. The chances are low, but there is.
What will replace it? On the face of it, Israel will not intervene in the internal power struggles between the Palestinians, but will concentrate on protecting its citizens. Still, given that Israel is the landlord on the ground, if the situation escalates, it is not certain that we will be able to stand aside. What shall we do? If there are official plans, they are hidden deep in a drawer.
But outside the government system, there are those who come up with ideas that could be a lifesaver. The most likely is the "Emirates Plan," promoted by the "securityist" movement based on a proposal by orientalist Dr. Mordechai Kedar. In essence, the plan says that instead of relying on a single Palestinian entity, seven local city-states will be established. Their core of control will be based on local clans, in accordance with Arab tradition. Each emirate will ensure its own security and that of Israel. A joint council will coordinate the relevant decisions between them. The main benefit of such a structure is the replacement of the nationalist component with family-tribal glue.
The time has come for Israel to start seriously examining this proposal. 30 years since the Oslo Accords, and the severe damage they cause, preparing alternatives cannot hurt.
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