In the midst of an extensive IDF exercise in preparation for the possibility of a multi-front campaign, and against the background of tensions in the north, the army's message sharpens the scenario for which the defense establishment is preparing. If war breaks out in the north, either you hurry to leave the community or prepare for long days in the shelter.
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According to the assessments of the IDF and security agencies, if a regional war breaks out in the northern sector, it will be dozens of times more powerful and difficult than the campaign we experienced in the Second Lebanon War, and will not resemble it at all.
In a state of war: leave the settlements
The "punch punch" exercise was launched a few months ago, and it lasted for two weeks. Its purpose was to simulate multi-front combat. These are the strict guidelines that were distributed to residents of the north in the "punch punch" exercise, as they were published: In one of the communities near the fence, a document was distributed that clarifies the scenario for which the defense establishment is preparing: "In a state of war, leave the community or prepare for long days in the shelter"; Another document stated: "According to the assessments of the IDF and security agencies, the war in the northern sector will be intense." The instructions given to northern communities near the border: "Evacuate the community quickly – the roads will be closed."
In addition, the IDF instructed the residents that during fighting, they would stay in protected areas for a long time, with almost no ability to leave them. The communities near the northern border should evacuate as soon as possible because the window in which it will probably be possible to evacuate will be short, and after that the roads will be closed.
IDF soldiers on the northern border with Lebanon, photo: AFP
According to a security coordinator in one of the communities on the Lebanese border, similar announcements have been issued in other localities, and in the end, the local authorities are aware of the security situation and are preparing for a possible escalation in the near future.
And I want to tell you, dear residents of the north, in light of the drastic reduction of the ground forces in the IDF over the past twenty years (out of the disastrous conception of the chiefs of staff over the past twenty years that great wars have passed from the world) that the army will not have ground forces to help the northern communities in your war for your home in your communities.
It must be understood that as soon as a war breaks out against Hezbollah on the northern border, it will turn in the blink of an eye into a regional war that will take place in five arenas simultaneously: a. in the Lebanese sector vis-à-vis Hezbollah, b. in the Golan Heights sector against the pro-Iranian Syrian Shiite militias equipped with weapons and weapons from head to toe; and vis-à-vis the Syrian army; c. In the southern sector vis-à-vis Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Gaza; d. In Judea and Samaria riots will break out with tens of thousands of terrorists and Tanzim fighters who will try to raid Jewish communities; 5) Inside Israel, severe riots will break out by thousands of Arab and Bedouin extremists and judge civilians not only in the mixed cities, but throughout the country, including roadblocks and shooting in our communities.
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Due to the drastic cuts in ground forces in recent years, the IDF does not have enough ground forces to fight simultaneously in the five arenas of the next regional war. And certainly the IDF will not be able to defend the northern settlements against the Radwan force (Hezbollah's elite commando stationed against Israel, even ten thousand fighters trained and equipped from head to toe, who will attack the northern communities accompanied by thousands of missiles, rockets and mortar shells that will be launched at the northern communities).
Guidelines that don't give answers
In light of the growing tension on our northern border, it was decided to hold a preparatory exercise for a regional war "punch punch" at the main weak point - that northern border in question.
If we examine the instructions that the northern communities received from the IDF during the exercise, and what they should do at the outbreak of war with Hezbollah, I would say that these are directives that do not provide answers to the difficult situation that will exist in the communities during wartime.
The IDF does not present the northern communities with the truth in all its nakedness about what awaits them in the war; And the way the residents of the communities operate, as instructed by the army, will cause heavy losses among those who remain in the communities, shelters and protected compounds. The residents should know that their communities may be attacked by Radwan forces after they cross the border and try to take over some of the northern settlements.
Soldiers on the Northern Border, Photo: Gil Eliyahu, Ginny
The IDF did not take into account the border crossing of Hezbollah's Radwan forces, and therefore instructed residents to remain in their communities during the war, enter bomb shelters and be in protected areas. The residents are unable to fight against Hezbollah commandos who will attack the community and will find themselves in a shelter surrounded by Hezbollah. One grenade is enough to be thrown into the shelter, and most of its occupants will be killed.
The IDF should have long ago organized in the northern communities large forces of local residents who are not drafted into the reserves and who served in the army in the past and know how to hold weapons and shoot them. These are fighters aged 70 and under; They must be given weapons that will be routinely kept in well-protected armouries in the communities, as a force whose role is to defend the community against the expected attacks by the Radwan force in the next war, because the IDF will not defend their communities. In practice, large quantities of weapons have been collected from northern communities in recent years for fear of weapons theft, instead of increasing their quantity.
The military's instructions to the northern communities do not mention a single word of the need for the residents' readiness to defend their communities against Hezbollah forces that will try to attack them. Sitting in shelters and protected areas, according to military instructions, without massive protection of their communities by the residents (the army currently has no ability to protect the communities) will cause a terrible disaster in all the communities attacked by Hezbollah.
Defense Minister Yoav Galant on a tour of the northern border after the terrorist infiltrated from Lebanon, photo: Eyal Margolin/Gini
I have nothing against evicting the elderly, women and children from their communities. However, it is not clear to me exactly where they will be evacuated, the entire length and breadth of the country will be consumed by fire, the roads will be blocked very quickly, and therefore it will not be possible to transfer reinforcements to one community or another.
The IDF must not be trusted
It should be obvious to the residents that while some 5,000 missiles, rockets and mortar shells will be fired daily at northern communities in the first days of the war, the residents who remain in their communities will have to take shelter in protected areas and shelters as instructed by the military. But as soon as the Radwan force crosses the border and attacks the communities, it must be clear to the residents beyond any doubt that they will have to leave the shelters and protected areas to positions and combat trenches surrounding the community that will be prepared in advance.
They are the ones who will have to defend their communities while Hezbollah commandos cross the border and start attacking one or another one or several communities at the same time. The IDF must not be relied upon to send troops to help the communities under attack for two reasons: first, that the IDF will not have forces to send, and second, that the roads will be blocked.
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The settlers alone will fight for their homes because there are no others in their place, and those who continue to rely on the help of the IDF are destined for great disappointment in the face of Hezbollah's attacks on the northern settlements.
My recommendation to the residents of the northern settlements near the border, it is not too late, get into the thick of it and prepare yourself to defend your community. Strongly demand that the army equip you with weapons and train each and every community how to operate the weapons and prepare within the community for Hezbollah to attack with missiles, rockets and mortar shells, as well as infantry from the Radwan forces. If you don't, there will be no one to protect you, no one will come to your aid from outside, and you can't say you didn't know.
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