"As before 2006": Israel agrees that the set of circumstances on the northern border is very reminiscent of the days before the First Lebanon War.
Over the past year alone, Hezbollah has accumulated a series of violations on the border, from the establishment of the Radwan force on the Blue Border, through rocket fire, the erection of tents, and the attempted attack in Megiddo. Against the backdrop of these violations, the UN Security Council is expected to vote today on renewing the mandate for UNIFIL forces operating in Lebanon.
Defense Minister warns of warming on the northern border // Photo: Liri Agami
The Foreign Ministry has worked in recent months to show members of the Security Council the necessity of UNIFIL's action and even conducted patrols along the border. The goal in Israel is not only to see the renewal of the Mandate but also to preserve UNIFIL's conditions of freedom. Among other things, Israel opposes the Lebanese army's demand to link UNIFIL patrols on the border to the Lebanese army, since the latter is struggling with a shortage of manpower and therefore the expectation is that it will limit UNIFIL's presence on the border.
UNIFIL - the UN interim force in Lebanon, photo: AFP
In addition, Israel has worked in recent months to prove to members of the Security Council that Hezbollah, which operates under the guise of Green Without Borders to establish itself on the border, has so far established more than 30 "outposts" along the Blue Line. Israel believes that this is military preparation for the day of the order intended to replace the array of tunnels that Israel exposed on the border. In addition, the instability in Lebanon and the ongoing economic crisis alongside Iranian pressure raise the chances that Hezbollah will lead further violations that will force Israel to respond.
"It's very reminiscent of 2006," Israeli political sources say. Against this background, although Israel does not entrust its security to UNIFIL, it is considered a factor that reduces friction on the border, so while Hezbollah threatens that renewing UNIFIL's mandate will remain only "ink on paper," Israel wants an effective mandate that will lead to an active presence of UN troops on the border.
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Israel's work vis-à-vis the Security Council is not done in a vacuum; Lebanon is also actively working to ensure that the Mandate matches their interests. "UNIFIL plays a role in the de-escalation between us and Hezbollah," Israel says, citing the lack of direct connection to Lebanon itself. Israel expects that UNIFIL's new mandate will this time include dealing with Green Without Borders, Hezbollah's straw organization and the containers placed on the Blue Line.
Will Hezbollah lead more violations? Nasrallah, photo: Reuters
All political efforts in Israel are directed, similar to the efforts of the international community to stabilize the situation in Lebanon and the continuation of UNIFIL's activity on the border as part of that stability. When the chances of escalation at the border seem higher than they used to be, Israel does not underestimate any stabilizing or delaying factor on its northern border.
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