Signs of normalization: It's hard to guess which of the two sounded more excited yesterday about the progress toward a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia – Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu or US President Biden.
Peace with the Palestinians was also presented by Netanyahu as lip service in order to fulfill the duty of the United States, and of course the US commitment to Israel's democratic values was once again heard. There was no rebuke from the American side, the embrace was cordial.
Without shaking hands: Biden meets with bin Salman in Saudi Arabia // Saudi TV
Apart from the fact that Biden did not accept Netanyahu at the White House, this meeting, nine months after the formation of the government, could be a dream come true for Netanyahu, who remembers well what the meetings looked like in the Democratic administration of former President Barack Obama.
Three partners in the agreement being woven: Netanyahu and Israel, Biden and the United States, and bin Salman and Saudi Arabia. The interests of the Americans and Saudis are immeasurably greater than those of the Israelis, despite the real news regarding Israel's integration into the Middle East. Biden is determined to block an alliance between Saudi Arabia and China and Iran, and he also needs a significant international achievement in light of his weakening in the polls. Bin Salman hopes for two significant achievements for his country's future: a NATO-style defense pact with the United States and a civilian nuclear program on Saudi soil.
Common interests. Biden and Netanyahu, Photo: AFP
The window of opportunity is until spring, so pressure in the U.S. and Saudi Arabia is mounting to get together for a signature before the U.S. elections dictate an impossible agenda for bipartisan agreements. To get there, the sides must overcome three significant obstacles: the Saudi request for a nuclear program with enrichment capabilities, the demand for a defense pact that the US can pass with the required majority in the Senate only with the support of Republicans with Israel as a vital mediator in the middle, and a third obstacle – Israel: gestures to the Palestinians.
The nuclear issue will require a creative solution such as close American supervision of Saudi soil to ensure that the Saudis do not use nuclear weapons for war purposes. It should be noted that the alternative is more threatening – an unregulated nuclear program courtesy of the Chinese, who are crying out for a foothold in the region. The issue of the defense pact will be dealt with by recruiting Netanyahu as the number one lobbyist for the agreement with the Republicans, with the political payoff for Netanyahu here quite clear – more normalization agreements following agreements that will ensure Israel integration in the region.
Biden and bin Salman during the latter's visit to Saudi Arabia (archive), photo: Reuters
Despite Netanyahu's somewhat enthusiastic remarks about "peace with the Palestinians," the "full-right" prime minister knows that he has no coalition credit for a single significant gesture vis-à-vis the Palestinians. His partner, Religious Zionism chairman Bezalel Smotrich, clarified this to him before his departure. Ben-Gvir does so more frequently and publicly, but more importantly, Netanyahu recognizes domestic limitations: members of his Likud party will not allow him to make significant political moves vis-à-vis the Palestinian Authority.
Netanyahu's hands are tied. Without a government there is no agreement if Saudi Arabia, this is clear to all. The assessment in Israel is that the Saudis will demand symbolic gestures, while the real concern is the steps that the Democratic administration will insist on entailing in the agreement, as Biden has already clearly said at the UN General Assembly. A former senior official close to Netanyahu told me this week: "If I were to advise him now, I would tell him don't blink first."
Will the Palestinians be an obstacle to normalization and the Saudi agreement that Biden and bin Salman are crying out for? This will ultimately be an American decision.
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