The Simchat Torah offensive is the 2023 version of the 1973 Yom Kippur War. The complete surprise, the concept and the collapse of the defense concept are very reminiscent of what happened here exactly 50 years ago.
In a proactive, timely and orchestrated move, Hamas managed to surprise the best minds in the Israeli intelligence organizations, completely toppling the defense concept of the Gaza Division, which in recent years relied on an "hourglass" fence that instilled a false sense of security.
A similar scenario, of infiltration, abduction and a killing spree under cover of massive rocket fire, was mentioned in recent years by the IDF leadership only in the context of the northern arena, after Nasrallah openly announced his intention to "conquer the Galilee," that is, cross the border, enter settlements and abduct civilians and soldiers. But no one imagined that worsening would begin from the south, even without any intelligence warning.
10 hours after the events began – these are some of the difficult questions that someone will have to answer in the investigative committees that will be established when the catastrophe ends.
Terrorists on an IDF tank, photo: AP
Where was the intelligence?
This is the first question that cries out to the sky. Just like 50 years ago, even if Military Intelligence had indicative signs, they were not translated into concrete intelligence, and this complacency exploded in our faces in a colossal intelligence failure.
In recent weeks, and even days, senior military officials have been heard talking about the fact that Hamas is not interested in escalation with Israel, stressing that the fact that thousands of workers enter Israel every day restrains the leadership of the organization that controls the Gaza Strip, which wants to bring welfare to its residents.
Despite the fact that during the past two weeks Hamas carried out a deception exercise in the form of a crisis on the fence, the intelligence assessment has not changed. As part of the same exercise, the terrorist organization sent hundreds of rioters to violent demonstrations, similar to the violent Friday demonstrations before the coronavirus pandemic. A few days ago, after several pinpoint signal strikes, the IDF believed that the problem had been solved when the defense minister ordered the continued entry of workers into Israeli territory.
The political-security cabinet meeting after the outbreak of the surprise attack, photo: Haim Tzach/GPO
Hamas surprise attack: Damage to the Ashkelon power plant // Photo: Shmuel Buchris
Not only that, but according to the assessment of the situation, the IDF, the strongest army in the Middle East, which prides itself on the best intelligence in our region and perhaps in the entire world, has in recent months reduced its forces in the Gaza Strip and transferred them to Judea and Samaria in order to deal with the murderous wave of terrorism. And when the intelligence did not warn, not even with a hint, the IDF leadership did not guide the forces, did not order the deployment of iron domes, and the serious incident caught most of the senior IDF commanders confined to their homes.
Like the Yom Kippur War, the failure was shared by the entire political and security leadership. The harsh result is that even hours after the beginning of the attack, which began at 6:30 A.M., there are still besieged communities, terrorists barricaded in their homes, and quite a few civilians and soldiers who were kidnapped into the Gaza Strip.
How did the defense concept of the Gaza Division collapse?
The fact that Hamas is interested in infiltrating Israeli territory is not new. For many years, the organization practiced infiltration into Israeli territory. The defense establishment believed that the greatest threat was the underground tunnels, and therefore, with an investment of billions, the formidable "hourglass" fence was built around the Gaza Strip, above and below ground.
Terrorists on their way from Gaza to Israel, photo: AFP
When it was completed, the army thought that they had almost completely solved the tunnel problem, and conventional wisdom held that above ground the situation was simpler - thanks to two fences, one of which, the formidable "hourglass". The military believed that the perimeter area, an area of about 100 meters near the perimeter fence inside the Gaza Strip, was sufficient security space. A "see-shooter" system was also installed on the fence, which was supposed to allow spotters to open fire at one infiltrator or another, but could not cope with a roaring crowd.
The grand plan did not take into account a mass onslaught of hundreds of armed men at the fence, blowing it up, destroying it, and destroying it with tractors. The defense concept behind which the IDF was hiding collapsed, similar to the collapse of the famous Bar-Lev Line on the Sinai front in October 1973. But 50 years ago, the Bar-Lev line was far away, somewhere in Sinai, while now, very close to the Gaza border, a few meters away, there are Israeli communities, and the sounds that came from there this morning were simply heartbreaking.
Riots near the Gaza Strip fence. Was the writing on the wall?, Photo: AP
Why did it take so long for forces to take control of events?
For many hours, armed terrorists roamed Israeli territory, inside outposts, bases and communities. They went from house to house, looking for civilians and members of the security forces. Many residents called rescue forces and members of the media to report on the terrorists who are near their homes or already inside them, when there is no savior.
The forces took a very long time to reach the besieged communities, and even now, despite the fact that many hours have passed since the beginning of the attack, the terrorists are still roaming the southern communities with their weapons drawn and continue to massacre civilians.
Where is the advocacy?
Hamas's fierce attack on Israel began at 6:30 a.m. For the first four hours, no one in the IDF Spokesperson's Office briefed the reporters, and through them the civilians. The army, as well as the entire Israeli propaganda apparatus, let the Hamas narrative, rumors and pictures that wanted WhatsApp lead the discourse.
The truth is that even in a briefing held by the IDF Spokesperson, Brigadier General Daniel Hagari, at around 10:30 A.M., insufficient details were given about the events or answers to the difficult questions, even regarding the most basic situation. The IDF made do with statements such as "we are at war," asked residents of the south to shut themselves in bomb shelters, and made do with that. At a relatively late stage, the IDF asked civilians not to cooperate with Hamas and to distribute Hamas videos and reports, but the requests were too late and no one seemed to heed them. What's more, there is no arguing with the harsh reality.
IDF Spokesperson: "We have launched a counterattack" // Photo: IDF Spokesperson
Has the internal rift really weakened deterrence?
For many months, Israel has been engaged in internal debates over the government's moves over the legal reform. Hundreds of reserve pilots, intelligence personnel, and reservists from various formations announced that they were suspending their volunteering for the reserves, and the top echelons of the army were forced to deal with strengthening competence and cohesion, and preventing the disintegration of the units.
The internal situation in Israel is also clearly evident in the assessments of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. Israel's enemies waited for Israel to weaken itself, and while the top echelons of the army dealt with the internal dispute that had penetrated the ranks of the army, they were busy taking advantage of the situation and preparing for the next war.
The political and military leadership will have to ask itself how it allowed the internal dispute to weaken Israeli deterrence in a way that caused Hamas to dare to launch the deadliest attack from the Gaza Strip.
The demonstrations in Kaplan (archive), photo: Raya Barkan
Looking to the future: Is the IDF prepared for the possibility that Hezbollah will join the campaign?
The nightmare scenario that materialized this morning on the Gaza Strip border will not necessarily end in the south and is likely to spill over into other arenas as well. Anyone who understands a little of the situation and Hezbollah's capabilities knows that what Israel experienced this morning is nothing compared to what awaits it in the confrontation with Hezbollah in the north. At this stage, it is impossible to rule out the possibility that Hezbollah and Iran are coordinating with Hamas, and even if they do not, there is a possibility that they will decide to jump on the bandwagon and join the campaign after the stock of Iron Dome interceptor missiles is eroded in the campaign in the south.
One way or another, we are facing difficult days of fighting, and we can only assume that the consequences of the incident will be very extensive in every possible arena – military, political and political.
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