Status: 10.10.2023, 04:30 a.m.
By: Tadhg Nagel
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A surprise attack by Hamas on Israel has shaken the Middle East. Speculation about possible support from Iran and Russia is increasing.
JERUSALEM — Hamas' unexpectedly successful attack on southern Israel from the Gaza Strip over the weekend has thrown the Middle East into turmoil. The conflict in Israel has reignited long-standing tensions between the militant Islamist group and the Israeli state. Hamas justified "Operation Al-Aqsa Flood" in response to recent Israeli police operations at the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem and violence by Israeli settlers occupying parts of the Palestinian West Bank. In Israel, in addition to horror and grief, the question of how the attack could have been so successful dominates, especially since the Israeli intelligence services are considered the best in the world.
"Certainly a long relationship" between Iran and Hamas - was there outside interference?
One possible explanation could be foreign support for Hamas. For some time now, it has been financially supported, armed and trained by Iran. Tehran supports numerous Islamist militant groups in its strategic conflict with Israel and its Western allies. Initial reports and a statement from Hamas indicate that Iran may have been involved in the attack, which is believed to have been planned for several weeks.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday (Oct. 8) that he had "not yet seen any evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack, but there is certainly a long relationship." However, Iran's mission to the United Nations has denied any involvement. In addition, the attack appears to have prevented, or at least delayed, the planned normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which was an important strategic goal for Tehran.
Speculation about Russian involvement in Hamas attack - help from Wagner mercenaries?
There has also been speculation on social media about possible Russian involvement in the Hamas action, as reported by the US magazine Newsweek. However, there is no evidence of an alleged role for Moscow. Some pro-Ukrainian accounts claimed on X (formerly Twitter) without evidence that mercenaries from the Wagner Group could have trained the Hamas units. Wagner, however, has no known presence in the Palestinian territories, according to the newspaper.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US think tank, suggested that Russia could benefit from diverting international attention. Finally, the worsening situation in Israel and the Palestinian territories distracts from its atrocities in Ukraine. Oleg Ignatov, a senior Russia analyst at the Brussels-based Crisis Group think tank, firmly rejected this. He told Newsweek that it was hard to imagine that Russia had been involved in the planning of the attack. "Of course, we live in a world where we can't rule anything out. But I didn't see any evidence," Ignatov said.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian (vl) - did both countries support the Hamas operation? © IMAGO/Valery Sharifulin
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Russia has been cultivating relations with Iran for a long time - What is Moscow's role in the Middle East conflict?
Although Russia has long maintained close cooperation with Iran and its network of militant partner organizations, such diplomatic channels should not be confused with direct support, Ignatov stressed. The country has very good relations with Hamas, which is well known. However, it is more in the interest of Russia's Middle East policy to be able to communicate with all parties. Therefore, Moscow is more interested in participating in peace negotiations than in influencing the fighting. This, of course, means that "it would not be interested in supporting either side." On Telegram, some users expressed different opinions. The situation in Israel is "beneficial for Russia, because the globalist toad distracts from Ukraine," Russian journalist Sergey Mardan posted.
Iran is Russia's true military ally, while Israel is supported by the US. Deciding on a side is therefore easy. Margarita Simonyan, the head of RT, also expressed similar sentiments on social media: "The country that is not at war with its neighbors is again at war with its neighbors. We await the exodus of Russian pacifists. But we won't hold our breath either," the propagandist said. However, such cheering on speakers in the state media is not the same as foreign policy, Oleg Ignatov clarified to Newsweek. It is not politics, but wishful thinking: "They believe that this is how the world works. If there is a war in Israel, it means that the United States is more likely to send grenades and ammunition to Israel than to Ukraine. And that this means that Russia will have an advantage." (tpn)
This article was created with the help of machine support and has been carefully reviewed by editor Bedrettin Bölükbasi before publication.