The war in Gaza is expected to last "weeks, maybe months," according to calls to forces scheduled to take part in the next ground phase of the campaign. Over the weekend, preparations for the ground operation were greatly accelerated. This coincided with the continued pounding of Gaza's airstrikes, which are being carried out with unprecedented aggressiveness.
In an attempt to avoid killing Palestinian civilians, the IDF ordered Gaza's civilian population to head south, and according to various estimates, half a million people have responded to the call so far.
IDF Spokesperson: "We will attack Gaza with great force in the near future" / IDF Spokesperson
The evacuation of civilians is supposed to facilitate ground maneuvers, because the only ones who will remain on the ground are Hamas operatives. Judging by the scope of the reserve mobilization and the preliminary preparations, it appears that the IDF is planning to operate on the ground without restrictions, with the aim of causing Hamas significant damage. However, various sources expressed concern that the delay in launching the ground campaign narrows the window in which Israel enjoys international legitimacy to respond to the massacre with Simchat Torah. Senior political and security sources rejected the remarks, saying that Israel had full freedom of action and that the planned operation would have no limitations on force or time.
Briefings held for commanders and forces spoke of a particularly prolonged campaign. At present, the entire economy is fascinated by this war effort, partly due to the high alert in the north and the fear of a multi-front war. Several sources assessed that if the tension in the north dissipates, the economy may gradually return to partial activity, but this is not expected to happen in the coming days.
IDF forces on the Gaza border, Photo: Getty Images
The objectives have not yet been clarified
Although it seems that the ground campaign is imminent, its objectives have not yet been clarified to the Israeli (and international) public. The statements made by the political leadership were quite inclusive, and spoke mainly in slogans that cannot be turned into a work plan. The IDF needs a clear strategic purpose for the activity in order to be able to realize it successfully. Some of the objectives are clear – for example, separating the sectors, preventing deterioration in the north, Judea and Samaria and among Israeli Arabs, avoiding harm to non-involved civilians in Gaza as much as possible, and preserving international legitimacy for the operation – but the main objective remains unclear: Does Israel intend to occupy the entire Gaza Strip and cleanse it of the presence of Hamas' military wing, or does it intend to make do with partial damage to the organization and the heavy damage caused to the Gaza Strip?
It is doubtful whether among the objectives of the operation is the release of Israeli abductees and bodies held in Gaza. In the past, it has been proven that this is an unrealistic goal, and in any case it directly involves the intensity of the attack on Hamas. It can be assumed that Sinwar is not particularly moved by the inferno that the Gaza Strip is currently undergoing, and he hopes to hold on and remain with the double achievement – the severe damage to Israel and the abductees – as a starting point for the future, in the hope that the world will act to rehabilitate the Gaza Strip. Sinwar may change his mind only under pressure from the residents of Gaza, and the massive southward movement is certainly a step in that direction (although Sinwar hopes that Israel will blink first, under pressure from the world).
The preparations for the campaign in Gaza coincide with the peak tensions in the north. Hezbollah tries to harass Israel every day in various ways – yesterday by launching anti-tank missiles and mortar shells at Har Dov, and by launching small aircraft – but at this stage has avoided escalation. It seems that the organization wishes to contribute its part to the Palestinian struggle in Gaza, but is concerned about the possibility that the campaign will spill over northward and endanger Lebanon. It is also likely that the explicit threats from Washington deter Hezbollah, which will face an increased dilemma as the campaign in the Gaza Strip intensifies and the number of Palestinian fatalities increases.
A demonstration in support of Israel in Times Square, New York. It is necessary to preserve international legitimacy,
Challenges in the International – and Domestic – Arena
In parallel to the war effort in the south and the efforts of preparedness and deterrence in the north, Israel needs two additional efforts. The first is diplomatic-political – to enable continued support for the campaign. Western leaders openly support Israel (along with almost all the media), but public opinion is more volatile and could influence the leaderships. As the campaign deepens – certainly if it expands to the north – it will also affect global markets, and may even deteriorate into superpower involvement, against the background of unconditional American support for Israel and Russia's parallel support for Hamas (and probably Hezbollah as well).
The second effort is propaganda. Its main part must be carried out in the world, and it relies mostly on the goodwill of a variety of private and business entities that have joined the cause. The Israeli government is faltering and finding it difficult to cope with the enormous challenge, and it is doubtful whether it will improve in the continuation of the fighting, so that most of the burden in this area will also be placed on the IDF. Even on the Israeli side, where it is supposed to act more easily against the background of the Israeli public's absolute support for the campaign, the government leaves an outrageous vacuum. The fact that the political leadership has not yet stood before the public to answer the difficult questions – and worse, has not yet found time to talk to the families of the abductees – is very disturbing, and it is necessary to remind us that alongside conducting the current campaign, it bears responsibility for the terrible failure.
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