Samples at the end of the dramatic election day in Poland show: As expected, the Law and Justice party won a majority, but its opponents have accumulated achievements that theoretically allow them to form a coalition in its place.
According to IPSOS' sample for TVN24, right-wing populist Law and Justice won 36.8% of the vote – slightly less than recent polls. Its main rival, the center-right Civic Platform, gained 31.6 percent, about one and a half percentage points higher than in recent polls. The center-right Third Way party received 13% and the Left Party 8.6%, half a percentage point less than recent polls. According to the sample, the far-right Confederation Party won 6.2%.
🇵🇱#Poland, parliamentary election exit poll:
ZP (PiS): 36,8 %
KO: 31,6 %
PL2050-PSL: 13 %
Lewica: 8,6 %
Konf: 6,2 %
...
According to this exit poll, the opposition (KO-PSL-P2050-Lewica) would have a majority.
Ipsos,#Wybory2023 pic.twitter.com/F9S1Bv4cZa
— World Elects (@ElectsWorld) October 15, 2023
Elections were held for the lower house of parliament (Sejm), with 460 seats, and for the upper house (Senate), with 100 seats.
"Last chance to restore the rule of law"
The right-wing populist Law and Justice party sought to win elections for the third consecutive time. It presents itself as defending traditional, conservative values against liberal elites in Warsaw and Brussels. Under party rule, Poland experienced a decline in poverty, but inflation also soared and a housing crisis.
Law and Justice-led Poland is also in an ongoing conflict with the European Union over issues of the rule of law and separation of powers after the controversial judicial reform. Poland has been one of Ukraine's most stable and committed allies in the war against Russia, taking in more than 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees and serving as a gateway to arms transfers to Kyiv.
However, recently – and not least against the background of the elections – there has been friction between Warsaw and Kiev over the export of Ukrainian wheat, which Polish farmers find irritating – a significant part of the electoral basis of Law and Justice.
Under the current regime, Poland has almost completely banned abortion and has taken action against the LGBT community. "Homosexuality is a threat to Polish identity, to our nation, to its existence and therefore also to the existence of the Polish state," Jarosław Kaczynski, the party's strongman, said back in 2019.
Donald Tusk celebrates victory in the polls,
The Civic Platform, a center-right party headed by Donald Tusk, has faced a liberal and pro-European platform, promising to reverse what they call anti-democratic changes introduced in recent years. The party describes another "law and justice" victory as an existential threat to Polish democracy, after the ruling party had already taken control of public broadcasters and exploited them for a relentless campaign against the platform.
In an attempt to get its supporters to the polls in high numbers, Law and Justice also attached a referendum on sensitive questions such as the absorption of migrants. Civil rights groups drew attention to the manipulative wording of questions such as "Are you in favor of absorbing thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa" or what is the position on "selling our national wealth to foreign entities."
The Confederation, an alliance of the far right, could tip the scales. The party, which barely entered the Sejm (parliament) in elections four years ago, has gained popularity. The party calls for tax cuts and the elimination of all social payments, and also opposes Polish aid to Ukraine. The Confederate leader said in 2019: "We don't want Jews, gays, abortion, taxes and we don't want the European Union."
Two parties expected to join Donald Tusk's Civic Platform are the New Left and Third Way – a centrist party made up of the agricultural Polish People's Party and the center-right Poland 2050.
Donald Tusk during a rally of his supporters in June this year, Photo: AP
Prof. Edith Zagot-Przybyłska of the Polish Academy of Sciences said she believed the election was a test of whether Poland was halting the deterioration of democracy or "joining Hungary in the club of electoral autocracies."
"This could be the last chance to restore the rule of law," she told the Guardian. Because of Poland's importance in helping Ukraine, she said, "the EU could even turn a blind eye if Law and Justice remained in power so as not to deepen the conflict with Warsaw. But it will have far-reaching implications for the entire democratic landscape in the EU."
When the samples were published, the head of the main opposition party, Donald Tusk, stood up and declared victory. "The bad times have come to an end, this is the end of the rule of Law and Justice. We did it!" Tusk added: "We won democracy, we won freedom, we won our beloved free Poland. This day will be remembered as the day Poland was reborn."
However, keep in mind that these are still only samples and not actual results.
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