It took Hamas almost two years to plan the atrocities in the western Negev, and it took them another week to understand that this time it would not end in another round.
Documentation: IDF attacks Hezbollah military infrastructure in Lebanon // Photo: IDF Spokesperson
Just last Thursday, the organization's spokesman, Abu Obeida, assured security prisoners in Israel that thanks to the organization's "good bargaining chips," "the day is very near when you will all be free." But by Friday he was deeply immersed in calls for residents of northern Gaza to ignore Israel's demand to evacuate their homes and move south.
It seems that until these moments, no one knows for sure what Hamas' ultimate goal was in its murderous attack. Should we just kidnap and capture as many soldiers and civilians as possible, in order to force Israel to open the prison gates wide and release all the terrorists held there in a huge exchange deal – and on the way kill and massacre as many Israelis as possible – or much more: ignite the spark that will lead to a multi-front campaign, in cooperation with Hezbollah from Lebanon, members of the organization and pro-Iranian militias from the Golan Heights? With massive Iranian aid from behind and terror from the territories. All this in order to embarrass Israel and "defeat the Zionist entity."
Forces on the northern border, this morning, photo: AFP
However, at the end of the eighth day of the war, it appears that Hezbollah, the main component of the overall scenario, is still on the brink. On the one hand, it assists and enables Palestinian terrorists to try to infiltrate Israel or shoot into its territory, responds with lethal fire into our territory for any harm to its personnel, but still refrains from broader offensive activity. The same is true of his public statements: he zigzags between the statement "In this war we will not remain neutral" and the statement made by Nasrallah's deputy, namely: "We will act at a time that suits us." Iran's foreign minister said on Tuesday that Hezbollah's entry into the campaign would be an "earthquake," but did not add.
Nasrallah's dilemma is clear. On the one hand, the temptation to attack is great, as is the (mistaken) belief that Israel will find it difficult to conduct a multi-front campaign at the same time. On the other hand, the risk is no less high: the IDF and Northern Command are on high alert. There is an aircraft carrier in the area and US reserve forces, and there are explicit American warnings not to intervene.
Soldiers on the Northern Border (Archive), Photo: Eyal Margolin - Ginny
And it also began – what is less known in Israel and very disturbing to Hezbollah – residents of southern Lebanon's villages to the north of the Litani River, fearing that Israel would carry out its threat to wipe out villages and towns and return Lebanon to the "Stone Age" if Hezbollah decided to join the campaign.
And one word is no less important about Egypt, its neighbor to the south. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is the last to shed a tear over the elimination of Hamas. He vividly remembers Hamas' assistance to terrorists from ISIS's branch in northern Sinai, and the warm embrace between senior ISIS operatives in Gaza and former Muslim Brotherhood President Mohamed Morsi, until he managed to get him away from the presidential palace.
Sisi's nightmare
But Sisi's biggest nightmare right now is that hundreds of thousands of Gazans fleeing Israeli bombardments will break through the barricades and dirt mounds erected by the Egyptian army in recent days and enter Sinai together with terrorists from the military wing. This has happened once before, about 15 years ago. Egypt, which is willing to bring humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip but is very concerned about the creation of a new refugee problem on its soil, will find it difficult, but will try with all its might to contain the flood.
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