The IDF is preparing for a protracted operation in Gaza, which could last months. It is estimated that this is the amount of time it will take to defeat Hamas' military wing and take away its governmental power, in order to shape a new reality between Israel and the Gaza Strip.
This plan requires an extensive ground operation, which will begin subject to several conditions: completion of the accumulation of forces, their equipping and additional preparations; accelerating the air force's attacks in order to provide ground forces with a more convenient ground for operations; Weather; and various international moves – from legitimacy to humanitarian measures.
IDF Chief of Staff in a statement: "Yahya Sinwar and the entire system under him are mortal - now is the time for war" (Archive) // IDF Spokesperson
As part of this, Israel partially resumed the flow of water to the southern Gaza Strip. This is intended to support the move of the population south to the Gaza River, in order to keep the area north of it as free of civilians as possible, so that the IDF will be able to operate there more freely. The IDF even allocated an area that would be immune from attacks – the Muasi area and the areas where Gush Katif communities were evacuated as part of the disengagement – in the hope that most Palestinian civilians would reach it. A tent city is also supposed to be built there with the help of the UN and other international organizations, in coordination with Israel. It is likely that Egypt will also help prevent the influx of hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees into its territory.
Achilles' heel
Israel is aware that the humanitarian crisis will be the Achilles' heel of the Gaza operation. The issue is expected to be the focus of US President Joe Biden's talks in Israel, and it can be assumed that the extensive offensive activity will be postponed until after he leaves the region.
Biden's visit is supposed to send a double message: full identification and shared interests and fate with Israel in the wake of the October 7 attacks, followed by support for the Israeli move aimed at defeating Hamas, as well as a clear warning to Hezbollah and Iran not to take advantage of the situation to launch a multi-front campaign. To this end, the US is also sending the aircraft carrier Eisenhower to the Persian Gulf, to pose a direct threat to Tehran.
Israel believes that the American threat has been absorbed by Iran and Lebanon, and that Israel's relatively aggressive responses in the north and the extensive operation in Gaza should also create deterrence. However, attacks from the north are liable to increase when the IDF invades the Gaza Strip on the ground, and they may spiral out of control even without a deliberate decision by one of the sides. This is the scenario that Washington fears, because it could drag it into a campaign in the Middle East and possibly in the Persian Gulf as well.
Demolitions in the Gaza Strip. The humanitarian situation - due to Akisal, photo: Reuters
Fearing a multi-front escalation, and as part of preparations for a protracted war in Gaza, the US has accelerated its aid to Israel. Last week, 26 American planes landed in Israel, carrying weapons and a large quantity of equipment. Some of the equipment came directly from the United States, and some from U.S. military depots in Europe and the Persian Gulf. Israel received mainly bombs and munitions of various types that would allow it to breathe for a long time, as well as additional offensive and defensive components.
Unprecedented assistance
The American aid is unprecedented, far greater than that given to Israel in the Yom Kippur War. At the present stage, this is aid for which Israel is required to pay, although it is possible that in the future part of it will become a grant (or the amount of American aid will be increased against the background of the war and the increased threat to Israel). The necessary adjustments to the budget in Israel have not yet been made, and in the meantime, the Ministry of Defense has instructed that it be conducted without limitations in order to enable full readiness for combat, as well as for the necessary measures on the home front.
Aircraft carrier Eisenhower (archive). Unprecedented US aid, photo: AFP
As part of this, the Ministry of Defense has so far been required to handle more than 330 military funerals of IDF soldiers, police officers and ISA personnel. At the same time, the Rehabilitation Department has so far been required to treat more than 1,250 wounded, and is also preparing for a huge number of shell-shocked people who will be required to assist. The Defense Ministry and the IDF also manage the entire process of identifying the hundreds of bodies of those killed in the Hamas attack (including civilians), and manage the entire process of removing residents in the north and south for refreshment in hotels.
The ministry also established a special administration to provide initial assistance to the communities near the Gaza Strip, headed by Major Generals Roni Numa and Miki Edelstein, and allocated NIS 10 million to begin its work. This budget is intended to enable communities to return to initial activity (from the return of residents to agricultural activity). The long-term rehabilitation of infrastructure and construction is supposed to be carried out by a parallel administration established in the Prime Minister's Office, led by Atomic Energy Commission Director General Moshe Edri.
At the same time, and as part of the objectives of the operation to fundamentally change the reality in the south, Israel will be required to design a new border with Gaza that will prevent similar attacks in the future. This will require significant security zones, but also the establishment of a physical and military line of defense that will be significantly different from the one that existed until now. The nature of the new model will also be largely derived from the results of the operation, and its cost will be added to the already enormous cost of the war, which is expected to reach hundreds of billions of shekels.
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