Status: 25.10.2023, 08:27 a.m.
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US President Joe Biden during his visit to Tel Aviv on 18 October. The U.S. is Israel's most important ally. © Miriam Alster/Pool Flash 90/AP/dpa
For days, Israel's army has been preparing a ground offensive in Gaza. But this has so far failed to materialise. This may also have something to do with US President Joe Biden. What is Biden's plan?
Washington - US President Joe Biden is spending a lot of time in the Situation Room, the operations center in the West Wing of the White House, these days. The most powerful man in the world discusses the situation in the Middle East with officers and intelligence analysts.
The 80-year-old picks up the phone himself again and again, he speaks regularly with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The commander-in-chief of the United States is trying to hold the strings together and not lose control - and this in a situation in which the world already seems to be coming apart at the seams.
Since the terrorist attacks of the Islamist Hamas against Israel, which have now killed more than 1400,<> people, the situation in the Middle East threatens to escalate further. The situation is also critical for Biden, the Democrat is in a dilemma. On the one hand, there is the "unconditional support" that the United States, as Israel's most important ally, repeatedly assures its partner. But there is also the suffering of civilians in the Gaza Strip, which would be exacerbated by an Israeli ground offensive. The dramatic images from Gaza and the high number of victims not only play into the hands of Hamas, they also cost Israel support.
Biden wants to buy time
Israel's army has been bombing targets in the Gaza Strip since the October 7 Hamas attacks and is preparing a ground offensive. But this has so far failed to materialise. Observers in the US assume that this also has to do with Biden. Media reports that the U.S. has advised Israel to postpone the ground offensive. The U.S. government does not publicly confirm this. But there is much to be said for this - also in view of the more than 200 hostages in the hands of the terrorists in the Gaza Strip. Among them are Americans.
US President Joe Biden (l) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are currently on the phone regularly. © Miriam Alster/Pool Flash 90/AP/dpa
Biden has made the release of the hostages a top priority. With the abductees, Hamas has a huge means of exerting pressure. Negotiations for their release are ongoing, reportedly under the mediation of Qatar. The launch of a ground offensive would endanger the hostages, who are believed to be held in various locations in the Gaza Strip. They could become victims of the fighting or could be used as human shields by the terrorists. In their massacres in Israel, Hamas terrorists have shown the brutality of which they are capable.
Biden must show the people of the United States, where the Democrat wants to be confirmed in office in next year's presidential election, that the United States is capable of protecting its citizens around the world. And he cannot afford a conflagration in the region, in which US troops could possibly be involved.
The catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine and now the Gaza war: all these international crises occurred during Biden's term in office. The Democrat prides himself on his decades of international experience and presents himself as a crisis manager. But for his political opponents, above all former President Donald Trump, the horrific events are a real treat: a sign of weakness and loss of control.
Clear words to Israel
Moreover, the Gaza war comes at a time when relations between the US and Israel are already at a low point. Biden had publicly rebuked Netanyahu for his much-criticized judicial reform. The U.S. has also recently found clear words on Israel's settlement policy. But all this has faded into the background in the face of the Hamas attack.
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However, the U.S. is keeping a very close eye on the actions of the political leadership in Israel. A few days after the Hamas attacks, Biden gave a speech. He vividly described Hamas' atrocities. This was also to be understood as a message to the Americans to ensure the support of his compatriots for Israel. But already in this speech, Biden also had a message for Netanyahu - albeit in a subordinate clause. Democracies like Israel and the U.S. are stronger and safer when they act according to the rule of law, he said.
Focus on protecting civilians in Gaza
Later, Biden clearly called for the protection of the civilian population in Gaza. During his visit to Israel last week, he said, "Even if you feel this anger, don't let it eat you up." He drew a comparison to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001: "After 9/11, we were angry in the United States. And while we sought and got justice, we also made mistakes." In times of war, tough decisions have to be made, but the vast majority of Palestinians do not belong to Hamas. "The people of Gaza need food, water, medicine and shelter."
The situation of the approximately 2.2 million people there is miserable - Israel has completely sealed off the densely populated coastal strip after the attacks. The U.S. is demanding that civilians who want to leave be able to leave safely. Among them are several hundred people with U.S. passports. According to the UN, around 1.4 million people have been displaced by Israel's attacks, and around 600,000 are holding out in emergency shelters, most of which are completely overcrowded. The U.S. wants to avoid a further deterioration of the already catastrophic situation and is struggling to give the people of Gaza access to humanitarian aid.
Biden's Middle East policy on the brink
So far, it is unclear what Israel's plan is for the period after the completion of the expected ground offensive for the Gaza Strip. Biden said he thought it would be a "big mistake" if Israel were to reoccupy Gaza. "Going in and eliminating the extremists" is necessary, but Israel must abide by the laws of war. There must be a path to a Palestinian state, Biden warned. This path is the two-state solution that the U.S. has supported for decades.
With the Gaza war, this is receding into the distant future. With peace treaties between Israel and Arab states, the US has tried to defuse the potential for conflict in the Middle East. In the course of the current escalation, Saudi Arabia has ended talks on such a rapprochement with Israel. At the same time, there is a threat of a conflagration. Increased missile and drone attacks on U.S. military bases in Syria and Iraq show that the conflict is already expanding. Israel is also threatened with increased attacks in the north by the Iranian-backed Lebanese Shiite organization Hezbollah. And it can be assumed that the Israeli ground offensive could have the effect of an accelerant.
As a deterrent, the U.S. has already deployed several warships and warplanes to the eastern Mediterranean, and U.S. military troops have been put on heightened operational readiness. However, Biden is likely to weigh up their possible use as commander-in-chief in the Situation Room in Washington very carefully. There is a high risk that there could be other theaters of war besides Gaza. Dpa