At the end of the third week of the murderous Hamas offensive near the Gaza Strip, Tehran issued an order to all its terror proxies in the Middle East: to continue trying to wear Israel down with fire in order to demonstrate Iran's support for the "resistance," but still to remain below the threshold of war.
This directive has so far been strictly carried out by all elements of the axis of evil. The Shiite rebels in Yemen launched drones and cruise missiles at Israel, which were intercepted along the way; Pro-Iranian militias attacked US bases in Syria and Iraq, and were met with targeted strikes by F-16 fighter jets at an IRGC base; Terrorist elements affiliated with Iran and Hezbollah in the southern Golan Heights fired into Israeli territory and were attacked.
And in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah continues to fire Kornet missiles at IDF outposts and anti-aircraft missiles at Israeli aircraft, and also suffer losses. In an unprecedented move, UNIFIL demanded that UNIFIL personnel help collect the bodies of the firing squads that were eliminated from the air near the fence, indicating its fear of further casualties. They are helping, despite Israel's vigorous protests.
IDF Spokesperson
Since October 7, Hassan Nasrallah has not been seen in public, except for a joint photo with senior Hamas and Islamic Jihad officials, and, contrary to his habit, he has not spoken. His spokesmen claim that he devotes all his time to monitoring developments.
As narrow as the explanation is, the dilemma can be understood. If he receives an order from Tehran to join the campaign, he will, but in the meantime, the heavy responsibility for what is happening in Lebanon rests with him: tens of thousands of residents have fled their villages north and stopped cultivating their lands, the Lebanese economy is completely shattered, many countries are evacuating their citizens, and all the political elements in the country are urging him to declare that he will not join the war, in order to save the country from final destruction.
But it is not certain that his patrons in Tehran are also closed on their next move. The Iranian foreign minister declared that they did not want to be dragged into a regional war, but added that he could not rule out such a war and the opening of additional fronts "if there is an escalation in Gaza." In other words: an extensive IDF ground incursion.
Cairo and Amman loathe Hamas, but fear that a large-scale invasion of the Gaza Strip will provoke riots in their territory that will undermine internal stability. This is the reason for their neutral stance
A regional war, one that could develop into a global war, is one of three scenarios presented yesterday by Kamal Harazi, a former foreign minister and advisor to Khamenei, at the Foreign Relations Research Institute, considered Iran's leading institute. The other two scenarios: Hamas and Israel alone will continue to fight "until one of them is eliminated," and the third is a war in Gaza that will last a long time, with each side continuing to receive support, assistance and backing from outside elements.
On the face of it, it seems that the Iranians, as of now, are leaning toward the latter scenario: continued assistance to Hamas by "harassing" Israel by Hezbollah and others, as part of "limited regional fighting," but without entering into an all-out confrontation. Reports of Iranian attempts to smuggle precision weapons to Hezbollah on civilian planes landing in Syria may reinforce this trend, which essentially means the willingness of Tehran and its proxies to "fight" until the last Hamas terrorist is eliminated.
Erdogan stood out for the worse
On the opposite Sunni axis, which opposes the Iranian axis of evil, last weekend all Muslim countries voted in favor of a resolution calling on Israel to immediately stop its attacks on Gaza, without mentioning the terrible massacre in the Gaza envelope.
Particularly prominent was Turkish President Erdogan, who slammed Israel, called on it to extricate itself from the "madness" that gripped it to "massacre the residents of Gaza," and announced that he had retracted his intention to visit Israel. Anyone who believed until recently that Erdogan, an extremist Muslim leader sympathetic to the Muslim Brotherhood, had changed his skin and become a friend of Israel should retract his decision.
Erdogan at a rally in support of Gaza, photo: None
But Egyptians, Jordanians and Saudis also voted in favor of the resolution, and we should not be surprised. Cairo and Amman despise Hamas, but are very concerned that an IDF ground incursion into Gaza will provoke demonstrations and riots in their territory that will undermine internal stability. This is the reason for the outrageous statements made by the Jordanian queen, Rania, who denied the murder of babies in the surrounding communities. This is the reason for the supposedly neutral stance of Egyptian President el-Sisi, who still suffers from post-traumatic stress disorder as a result of attacks by ISIS, the Muslim Brotherhood and radical Islam in Cairo and Sinai.
Criticism of bin Salman
Riyadh also maintains restraint. Social networks in the Arab world are attacking Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, claiming that although he has condemned Israel, he has not actually renounced his willingness to normalize relations with Jerusalem in exchange for a defense pact with the United States, and is just waiting for the end of the war in Gaza.
A senior Western source confirms that none of the decision-makers in Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia will shed a tear if Hamas is wiped out, but they have been disappointed in the past by the failure to remove terrorist threats
A senior Western source, who frequently meets with decision-makers in Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, confirms to me that none of them, not even Abu Mazen, will shed a tear if Hamas is wiped off the map. The problem, the source said, is that all four leaders have been disappointed in the past that Israel has repeatedly failed to completely remove the threat of Hezbollah in the north and Hamas in the south. Now they won't say a word until it becomes clear that Israel can really do what it promised. Namely - forever.
Wrong? We'll fix it! If you find a mistake in the article, please share with us