Although officially only the National Security Council deals with the question of the day after in the Gaza Strip, various scenarios are on the table regarding how the fighting will end and the official goal of toppling the Hamas regime will be achieved. While the rest of the cabinet rarely spoke on the issue, as did the prime minister, Knesset Member Gideon Sa'ar hinted Thursday at what will happen in the Gaza Strip: "In the foreseeable future, any territory in the Land of Israel that was handed over to the Palestinians will become an armed base for savage aggression against Israel. Therefore, under no circumstances should the process of withdrawals be resumed. Even from any area that is not under our control, it is impossible to disconnect from security responsibility and ongoing damage to force buildup."
Gideon Saar, Photo: Oren Ben Hakon
Sa'ar was the one who proposed a security zone between Gaza and the surrounding communities, a proposal that Israel is already implementing on the ground and is expected to remain in the withdrawal of forces. Therefore, his remarks regarding security responsibility for the Gaza Strip in the Judea and Samaria model reflect more than his personal opinion, but rather the direction in which the cabinet will ultimately direct. Netanyahu repeatedly tells the world that Israel does not want control of the Gaza Strip, but he does not address the security issue. Every political source we spoke with made it clear: "Israel will not be able to give up a security presence the day after."
In the meantime, one of the options discussed by the small cabinet has already been taken off the table: the Beirut scenario, which refers to the expulsion of the Hamas leadership instead of its destruction. "There is no such thing. Sinwar must die in Gaza," a diplomatic source told Israel Hayom.
Yahya Sinwar and Ismail Haniyeh, Photo: AP
The alternative is indeed what Israel received from Arafat – planning attacks from distant Tunisia. In contrast to other reports, cabinet ministers oppose such a scenario for two reasons: one is a slim chance of Sinwar's surrender and the other is a de facto continuation of Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip in this manner.
As we reported earlier this week, the NSC began discussing the question of control of the Gaza Strip the day after the war, along with former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen, in fact from the first days after the massacre. Cohen is acting by Netanyahu in an unofficial appointment vis-à-vis the Gulf states and Egypt on the question of the abductees and on the possibilities of evacuating the population from Gaza to Egypt (in the monetary framework), but the question of governance in the Gaza Strip also arises. One of the options discussed is the appointment of a veteran member of the security forces such as Muhammad Dahlan (who currently refuses the offers) who will work closely vis-à-vis Israel and not the Palestinian Authority.
But while these discussions are being held in secret, the US already has plans for implementation. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who is expected to land in Israel tomorrow, was asked this week who will control the Gaza Strip after the war and replied that "the return of the internationally recognized Palestinian Authority is the 'most logical.'" But the PA is weak as never before, Abu Mazen is at the end of his career, and Israel is not as interested as the Americans are in reviving the two-state solution on the bayonets of IDF soldiers.
Abbas is not a sucker either. He demands, in return for accepting responsibility for Gaza, recognition of the PA as a state – a process that Israel can no longer stop after the enormous political credit it received for the war. In this way, IDF soldiers will cleanse Gaza of Hamas, and we will receive an authority that is unable to control Gaza, rearmament against us and insecurity.
"The absence of a decision on the question of the day after is a serious mistake," another member of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee told Israel Hayom. "As far as the whole world is concerned, they have a solution – a politically upgraded PA. Therefore, not only is it necessary to decide now what the target is, but it is necessary to shape a reality on the ground while operating deep inside the Gaza Strip." Without such a goal, he warns, it will be very difficult to eliminate Hamas and its rule in the Gaza Strip.
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