Nasrallah has remained silent since the massacre in Gaza, and even when he spoke for the first time Friday evening, he bitterly disappointed the murderers in Gaza. Their hope that he would announce Hezbollah's immediate and full participation in the campaign did not materialize. The furthest he went in his speech was to ensure that "all options are on the table" and did not add a pass.
If this is not a deception, and Hezbollah, it should be remembered, is now on high alert in Lebanon, the bulk of Nasrallah's speech looks more like an attempt to dissuade Israel from preemptively striking his organization. A move, he said, would be "the stupidest thing Israel has done in its history."
Gantz in response to a question from Israel Hayom: "Nasrallah understands what will happen to Lebanon if he does things he should not do" // Photo: Yehuda Schlesinger
Even the many words he spoke of the "achievements" he recorded for himself in the limited confrontation with Israel along the border, such as forcing the IDF to dilute the attacking forces in Gaza in order to move some of them to the north, indicate that Nasrallah would prefer to continue on this path and escalate, as long as the bar of flames remains lower than that which leads to all-out war.
In practice, he also made an effort to define for us the two circumstances under which he would escalate: one, the pace of developments in Gaza (for example, if he felt that Hamas was on the verge of defeat) and the second, according to the way Israel would conduct itself on the northern border. For example, if it causes serious harm to Lebanese civilians.
IDF attacks in Lebanon, photo: Reuters
Nasrallah speaking to mark one month of the war in Gaza, photo: Arab networks
He then promised that in the war in Gaza, Hamas would emerge victorious despite the destruction and destruction "as Lebanon won in 2006," forgetting that he himself explicitly said that had he known how Israel would respond, he would not have rushed to provoke it.
Since that war, the Second Lebanon War, and to this day, Nasrallah has been mostly a hero from the pit. And tonight's speech was delivered from the bunker. He is well aware of the risks he will take if he decides to join the war and is not sure he believes himself when he warns the United States of the "answer" he is preparing for the mighty force, including aircraft carriers, that has rushed to help the Middle East.
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